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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our Week 12 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint for fantasy lineups this week. It's a strange week in the NFL with six teams taking their bye week.
That could mean lineups are gridlocked and fantasy managers don't have the luxury of analyzing matchups to decide their starters. Potential busts may not be able to be avoided.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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J.K. Dobbins (RB, LAC) vs. Baltimore
The Ravens allow 3.29 yards per carry to running backs this season. They are also the worst pass defense in the league. Justin Herbert has attempted over 30 passes in four of his last six games, something he did zero times in Los Angeles’ first four games. Head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman aren’t afraid to utilize their best player anymore.
There’s also the Gus Edwards factor. Dobbins logged 12 touches against the Bengals. That’s his lowest total since Week 1. Edwards only had six carries on Sunday night but he started both of those games.
The revenge-game narrative is in play for Dobbins and Edwards, but neither running back could have a strong performance against their former team.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) vs. Kansas City
Rookie running back Jonathon Brooks is expected to make his NFL debut against the Chiefs this weekend. Does that downgrade Chuba Hubbard? Not really. Miles Sanders was getting a handful (5.9) of touches per game. He's not expected to be active on Sunday due to an ankle injury. The rookie will likely see about the same amount of opportunities in relief of Chuba Hubbard.
RBs.
Chuba Hubbard is currently 4th in league for rushing yards, averaging 5.08/yards carry.
Jonathon Brooks is scheduled to make his NFL debut.
Miles Sanders is not expected to play Sunday, and is currently week to week with an ankle injury. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/YyxvsLeuxA
— DaShawn Brown (@DaShawnWSOC9) November 20, 2024
The bigger issue for Hubbard is the matchup. The Chiefs allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs by a wide margin.
Let's use James Cook as an example. Cook and Hubbard average nearly the same amount of PPR fantasy points per game. Both are utilized on the ground and through the air. Cook totaled 27 yards on 14 touches against the Chiefs last week. He happened to plunge into the end zone on a pair of short touchdowns.
The Buffalo offense is good enough to move the football on Kansas City and put Cook into that situation. The Panthers are not of that caliber. With six teams on bye, Hubbard is probably in the majority of starting lineups. Manage expectations, however, in this brutal matchup.
D'Andre Swift (RB, CHI) vs. Minnesota
The change of play-callers from Shane Waldron to Thomas Brown was both good and bad for D’Andre Swift. The offense as a whole was markedly better than the prior zero-touchdown affairs. However, the coaching staff also utilized second-string running back Roschon Johnson more than it had all season.
2rd and goal. No speed option. No backup OL handoff.
Just Roschon Johnson.
Well done, Thomas Brown.pic.twitter.com/XtZgFCfGTA
— Dave (@dave_bfr) November 17, 2024
It worked as well. Johnson rushed 10 times for 33 yards and a touchdown. More importantly for fantasy football, the second-year back was in the game near the goal line. Swift’s score came from 39 yards out.
The Minnesota defense continues to be stout against the run. The unit allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs and the second-fewest rushing yards to the position.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN) at Las Vegas
Keep 'em guessing.
That's the game Sean Payton is playing. One week after Williams logged three touches and rookie Audric Estime was dubbed the leader of the backfield, Williams dominated touches against Atlanta. Split backfields are a headache for fantasy football. Split backfields that we don't even know how touches will be divided are impossible to trust.
Javonte Williams after hearing every fantasy football podcaster say it was now Audric Estime’s backfield in Denver pic.twitter.com/9MTl1Jj6Un
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 17, 2024
And it is particularly brutal this weekend when six teams are on a bye and the Broncos play a terrible Las Vegas run defense. If we knew who would command the touches, Williams or Estime would be a must-start.
Because of the uncertainty, both running backs are in the flex range. The duo can be placed into starting lineups but there's a decent chance that Payton leans on one more than the other, creating a disappointment in the process.
Tank Dell (WR, HOU) vs. Tennessee
Tank Dell has been more disappointing than not this season but was mostly reliable in the recent stretch without Nico Collins. Collins was eased back into action (47% of the snaps) against Dallas. Houston's alpha should be unleashed moving forward.
What does that mean for Dell? He's the clear-cut third priority on the Houston offense behind Collins and Joe Mixon. That should reduce his target share.
The Texans are matched up against the Titans. Tennessee allows the third-fewest receptions, second-fewest yards, and fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Dell may be in lineups due to the bye-nado but he's better left on benches, if possible.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) at Chargers
One team hasn't allowed a touchdown to the tight-end position this season. That's the Los Angeles Chargers.
When Isaiah Likely is active, Andrews is a touchdown-or-bust tight end. Take his touchdowns away, and Andrews has topped 10 PPR fantasy points once. That was in Week 10 against the Bengals with Likely inactive.
Mark Andrews has played 57% of the snaps, compared to 88% last week. It appears he's returned to his underwhelming 'when Likely is active' usage
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 17, 2024
Essentially, fantasy managers are betting that Andrews finds paydirt against the one team that hasn't allowed a tight-end touchdown this year. There are streaming candidates (Will Dissly and Jonnu Smith) that are safer starts than Andrews.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, LV) vs. Denver
Jakobi Meyers is one of the few receivers to succeed against Denver cornerback Pat Surtain II this season. When the pair met in Week 5, Meyers caught six passes for 72 yards on nine targets. Meyers didn't hide from Surtain in the slot, either. He lined up outside on 60 of his 68 snaps.
Surtain allows the fewest fantasy points per route and yards per route. As he has several times this season, Surtain could shadow the opposing top receiver. Outside of Brock Bowers (who he won't shadow), who else is a threat to catch passes on the Raiders?
If the Raiders fall behind (which would surprise nobody), Meyers could produce on volume alone. Las Vegas could also be without its top two running backs (Alexander Mattison and Zamir White).
With six teams on bye, Meyers is probably in starting lineups and could come through. But there's just as good of a chance that Surtain shuts down Meyers and Gardner Minshew II has to target other receivers.
Sam Darnold (QB, MIN) at Chicago
One of the problems plaguing Chicago this season is its run-funnel defense. Even with injuries suffered in the secondary, it’s remained the strong point of its defensive unit. Teams haven’t been afraid to run on it. Jordan Love attempted 17 passes against Chicago a week ago.
Because teams can run and the Bears roster a strong secondary, opposing quarterbacks are averaging the fewest fantasy points against the Bears. Only once (Trevor Lawrence) has a quarterback thrown for multiple touchdowns against Chicago.
How has Vikings QB Sam Darnold been so consistent?
Bears CB Jaylon Johnson: “I feel like he hasn’t been consistent. He started out hot… He’s had a lot of turnovers lately.”
— Jason Lieser (@JasonLieser) November 21, 2024
Darnold has scored well for fantasy football but has a turnover problem. He’s committed a giveaway in all but two games this season. The Bears have baited opposing quarterbacks into 12 turnovers.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR) vs. Philadelphia
The Philadelphia defense has been on fire over the last quarter of the NFL season. It is the seventh-best against fantasy football running backs and even better against the pass. The unit is the best against wide receivers and third-best against quarterbacks.
Jayden Daniels scored the majority of his fantasy points in garbage time last week. The Eagles have held their opponents to under 200 passing yards in three straight games.
Rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are blossoming into stars. Mitchell in particular isn't just playing at a Rookie of the Year level. He's performing as a potential All-Pro.
According to @PFF, only 19 cornerbacks have played 350+ coverage snaps this season, including A.J. Terrell, Terrion Arnold, Christian Gonzalez, Derek Stingley Jr., etc.
Only one of those 19 cornerbacks hasn’t surrendered a touchdown in 2024:
Eagles rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell 👀 pic.twitter.com/VBEXDMrnou
— Anthony DiBona (@DiBonaNFL) November 17, 2024
The corners get their biggest test with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as their opponents on Sunday Night Football. With how good this defense has been playing and how the Eagles offense can control the clock, I'm looking elsewhere for a streaming quarterback in Week 12.
Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) vs. Dallas
Over the past few weeks, the Commanders have been even more dedicated to using their running backs. Against Philadelphia, Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. shared the field often and each touched the ball 10+ times. During Thursday Night Football, it was revealed that Daniels was still managing his rib injury. He says he can still make all his throws but the eye test says otherwise.
Kliff Kingsbury said it’s been great to get a full week with Jayden Daniels and just getting back to the fundamentals after some uneven performances for the offense pic.twitter.com/J9cQPolDMf
— JP Finlay (@JPFinlayNBCS) November 21, 2024
The matchup against Dallas may look enticing but the Cowboys opponents haven’t put the football in the air. C.J. Stroud is the only quarterback in Dallas' last five games who attempted over 30 passes (and Stroud did not have a good fantasy football game). If the Commanders want to continue to protect their franchise quarterback, they can beat Dallas on the ground.
Brian Robinson Jr. is a must-start this week. Ekeler is in the flex range. Fantasy managers may have to watch Daniels hand off the football inside the 3-yard line and agonize over the lack of touchdowns.
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