Week 11 NFL Recap: Injuries, Breakout Performers & Game by Game Analysis

 

Any Given Sunday

Raise your hand if you started Jonas Gray. That’s what I thought. In the most bizarre turn of events, New England Patriots running back Jonas Gray was your Week 11 leading scorer. Absolutely bonkers right? The thing is, despite being the most obvious pickup of the week, he’s impossible to trust going forward since the Patriots notoriously switch it up at running back.

Gray had four touchdowns in Week 11 but next week it might be Shane Vereen or Brandon Bolden. You just never know with the Pats and anyone who tells you different is lying to themselves and to you. Sure, he’s worth a waiver wire add, maybe even a start if you’re hurting at running back, but let’s not crazy here.

Your other leading scorers for Week 11 were Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles, and Mike Evans. There isn’t really much to discuss with the first two; they’re both studs who can easily lead their respective positions in points any given week. So let’s focus on Evans for a minute.  This was the third big game in a row for Evans who has clearly developed into the more reliable receiver in Tampa Bay. It’s a real shame for Vincent Jackson owners considering the dude is still talented.

Part of me thinks the Buccaneers will trade Jackson in the off-season and roll with Evans as their clear number one guy. Either way, Evans is a huge “buy high” candidate for any keeper league format. I doubt many people who are eliminated from playoff contention are reading a recap this late into the season, but if you’re already playing for next year, Evans is someone you should target in a trade. He’s even got a nice schedule the rest of the way this year if you want to try to get him for the playoff push. With matchups against Chicago, Carolina, and Green Bay, Evans should finish the year strong.

Speaking of being in playoff contention, I’ve been saying for a few weeks now that this late into the season we know what players are and aren’t. Having said that, it’s probably best to throw in some other trade targets throughout the individual game recaps in conjunction with the injury tidbits. Obviously not every team has great performers worth acquiring but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any sell candidates as well. Most leagues trade deadlines are this week or next week so it’s the last opportunity to make moves. Some names you’ll see here will be obvious (I probably shouldn’t mention cashing in on DeMarco Murray again… but I just did), while others, not so much.

 

Week 11 Recap - Impact Players & Game-by-Game Analysis

Bills @ Dolphins

Boy these Thursday night games have been barn burners…let’s call this game what it was: terrible. I had mentioned Bryce Brown as a potential PPR sleeper last week so now would be the time to pat myself on the back with that one. It’s hard to tell by looking at the box score that Brown had a solid game in PPR formats. The Dolphins have a stout run defense so I figured the Bills would try to throw to their running backs to get better production out of them.  Brown finished the day with seven receptions, which was certainly aided by the surprising scratch of Fred Jackson. If you’ve ever read anything I’ve written about the Bills in the past you’d know that I’m a huge Fred Jackson fan which is why he’ll be my first buy low target for the playoff push. I’m well aware that he’s technically injured but he should be good to go in week 12 against the tough Jets run defense. I’m mentioning Jackson as a trade target more so about how cheap you could probably get him for rather than his schedule. I’ll admit, he has some tough matchups the rest of the way but if you try to do a two for two deal you can probably get Jackson on the cheap. He should be a solid RB2 once healthy. As far as the Dolphins are concerned their team is kind of straightforward at this point. Lamar Miller is a clear top 15 back the rest of the year and Mike Wallace is a decent WR2 despite the mediocre showing Thursday night.

 

Bengals @ Saints

In what should have been a much more entertaining game the Bengals upset the Saints in New Orleans 27-10 on the heels of a huge day from running back Jeremy Hill. If I were a Giovani Bernard owner (and I am in one league) I would be super concerned about this development. Hill has done well in Bernard’s absence, which could be a disaster upon Bernard’s return. The Bengals running back situation has changed frequently throughout the year. In the off-season, many thought Hill would eat into Bernard’s touches, a theory that was ultimately disproven before Bernard’s injury. Once Bernard returns, I can’t imagine the Bengals giving him the full workload so I’d expect this run game to be closer to a committee afterall. I’m selling Bernard if I can but wouldn’t bother targeting Hill. He’ll get work for sure but I like to avoid guys who are in clear-cut timeshares. Now for the curious case of the New Orleans Saints. I’ve been saying for weeks that Mark Ingram will fall off the preverbal cliff the second Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas return to the lineup. Problem is, many expected that to have happened by now. If I could trade away any one player in the NFL right now, it’s Ingram. You can probably sell him for way above his worth to a desperate owner in need of a running back. Unfortunately, most savvy owners are aware that Ingram will be rendered moot once the other two guys return. As far as the Saints passing attack is concerned, Marques Colston should have been dropped weeks ago while Brandin Cooks suffered a broken thumb that is expected to sideline him for 4-6 weeks. That's a real tough loss for fantasy owners since you'll likely have to drop Cooks to make room for someone else. I suppose that automatically increases the value of Kenny Stills so he's probably the Saints pass catcher I would add if I'm looking for help at wide receiver.

 

Texans @ Browns

Here it comes folks: the unavoidable downfall of the Cleveland Browns…sorta. You would think that this would be the time the Browns are going to revert back to being the Browns except for the fact that they get Josh Gordon back next week. I can’t imagine Gordon is available in your league but if he is, grab him immediately. He’s going to be an easy top 10 receiver upon his return as he’s proven that he is both quarterback and matchup proof. The Browns have been extremely run heavy all year, utilizing their three-headed monster at running back with Isaiah Crowell, Ben Tate, and Terrance West. Well, it’s more of a three-headed puppy at this point. No one has any idea, which one of these backs will be usable any given week and again, anyone who tells you different is a liar. This game saw Crowell end the day with the most carries while Tate and West combined for seven. Throw in the fact that Tate ended the day with an astounding NEGATIVE nine yards and you’ve got yourself a situation to avoid entirely. Moving on to the Texans, they have absolutely nailed it when it comes to backing up Arian Foster with a viable running back. With Foster out, the Texans turned to Alfred Blue who ran the ball a crazy 36 times for 156 yards. You’re not starting Blue if Foster is playing but man that kid can play on his own. He has what it takes to be a starter in the NFL so I really hope he gets his shot one -day. Blue is the perfect dynasty league target since he’s not exactly a “win now” player to own. He’s a building block for the future both in real life and in fantasy. Ryan Mallet showed competence at quarterback, which is all you can ask for from the Texans passing attack. I’m curious to see if any fantasy sites end up listing J.J. Watt as a wide receiver next year…

 

Falcons @ Panthers

The Atlanta Falcons are now sitting pretty in first place at a potent 4-6. I kid you not. The NFC South is far and away the worst division in football despite this close matchup between these two teams. Antone Smith was lost for the year in this game but unfortunately that’s more of a real-life loss than a fantasy one. Steven Jackson is the only fantasy relevant running back in Atlanta and I have to say, he might actually be a sneaky RB2 for the playoffs. I know his numbers aren’t stellar but eventually you come to a point where you’re looking around for top 20-24 running backs and SOMEONE has to be ranked high enough to start right? Jackson is by no means a high-end RB2 but an RB2 nonetheless. I’m not buying or selling Jackson since I don’t feel strongly enough about him one way or the other. He is what he is; a clear starting running back in the NFL who just isn’t a stud. Know who I am buying though? Roddy White. It’s taken a while but White is finally starting to put up solid fantasy numbers. It wouldn’t shock me if you bailed on Roddy weeks ago but hopefully you hung tough. I think he’s a decent enough WR2 going forward and another guy you could probably still get cheap. The following statement pains me to type but it has to be done: Cam Newton is officially droppable. I’ll gladly cop to me statement that I believed more in the Cam Newton bounce-back than the Tom Brady one and I couldn’t have been more wrong. Brady continues to excel while Cam continues to dwindle. I think a majority of his production or lack thereof has been related to the fact that he’s never been fully healthy this year. He’s going to be a trendy sleeper next year once he’s fully healthy but for now, he can’t be starting for you in a 10 or even 12 team league. Guys like Roethlisberger, Sanchez, Tannehill and even Drew Stanton (to a lesser degree) could win you a week at this point. Lastly, Kelvin Benjamin is a star in the making. The dude can flat out play. He’s easily a top 15 wide receiver and I can’t wait rank/draft him as such next year.

 

Buccaneers @ Redskins

The Washington Redskins should be absolutely embarrassed in losing this game the way that they did. At home coming off of a bye and you lose to the terrible Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Awful. (I promise I’m not just bitter about picking them in my eliminator pool…) The Redskins seem to have a whole host of problems both on and off the field yet the team does have two legitimate fantasy starters in Alfred Morris and DeSean Jackson. Both guys are guaranteed starters on a team that is struggling mightily. We hit on Mike Evans’ monster 209 yard day earlier so let’s touch on the run game for a second. With Charles Sims back and healthy, I would rank him as the number one back on the Buccaneers going forward with Bobby Rainey Second and Doug Martin third. If I’m going to cop to my bad calls I should take some more pride in some of my good ones. I pretty much nailed the “Doug Martin is already washed up” narrative despite his recent injuries. Even when he was healthy he wasn’t that good anyway. The production isn’t quite there yet for Sims but I do believe it’s coming. Apparently Jordan Reed suffered a hamstring injury here but there has been little to no information on his status as of yet. This game was another clunker so it’s probably best if we move on rather quickly.

 

Seahawks @ Chiefs

This was a trendy upset pick for the Chiefs and they pulled it off in the end. The Seahawks simply aren’t as good as they were a year ago, particularly on defense. This is all the proof you need not to draft a defense until your second to last pick. There is more turnover (no pun intended) at defense in fantasy than any other position. Offensively, the Seahawks leaned heavily on a banged up Marshawn Lynch but as always, Lynch shrugged off his ailments to the tune of 124 yards. Unfortunately, he simply didn’t find the endzone this week.  I’m not sure what to make of Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin. On one hand you have a clear number one receiver but on the other the Seahawks just don’t throw the ball with enough efficiency to trust in Baldwin as an every week starter. He should be owned in all leagues for sure I just don’t know how comfortable I am in starting him.  The man they call Zeus, Travis Kelce, had a disappointing outing here. Such is life at the tight end position; some weeks you’re the hammer, others you’re the nail. The Kansas City Chiefs remain the only team in the NFL not to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver this season. That’s an amazing feat for a team that has seven wins already. Probably helps that they have that Jamaal guy…

 

Broncos @ Rams

22-7 Rams, just what we all thought right?  I joked to a friend that the spoiler alert for this game was the Broncos winning by 20. Who knew the Rams could pull off this monstrous upset? The Rams held Peyton Manning to just seven points for the first time in almost a decade. It’s an amazing feat that shows you how tough the NFC West still is despite the Seahawks and 49ers taking a step back this season. Tre Mason has emerged as the team’s only true fantasy starter with his 29 rushes for 113 yards. The Rams finally figured out a way to run the ball, which mostly just means not using Zac Stacy. The biggest pieces of news coming out of this game are the injuries to Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The Thomas injury is believed to be less severe than previously thought as the team has declared him day-to-day with an ankle injury. Hopefully he can suit up for Denver’s week 12 matchup with the Dolphins. If any Broncos pass catcher is healthy and active, you’re starting him. Don’t get cute. As for Sanders, the hit he took in this game was absolutely vicious. When I saw it in real time I actually thought he was going to be out cold. It was a scary play that clearly resulted in a concussion for Sanders. Concussions are funky so we’re going to have to monitor this situation as the week rolls along. As with Thomas, if Sanders is healthy and active, you’re starting him. Having said that, it’s possible one or both of these guys are out for week or two so it’s worth seeing if Wes Welker has been dropped in your league. Welker had been 100% droppable for weeks so it’s definitely possible he’s unowned. If Sanders and/or Thomas are out, I would have to assume Welker ends up with an increased role. The Broncos also lost Montee Ball after re-injuring his groin in this game. Ball hadn’t been very good even before his initial injury so all this really does is give C.J. Anderson the starting gig until Ronnie Hillman comes back. It’s uncertain when Hillman will be able to return but until then, Anderson has to be treated like an RB2 despite the Broncos struggling to run the ball. Any running back in a Peyton Manning led offense has tremendous value, Anderson is no different.

 

Vikings @ Bears

For weeks I had been saying to stick it out with the Chicago Bears offense and if you listened to me, you were treated to big days from the big three in Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery. All three put up solid numbers in a game the Bears actually trailed for a full quarter. There is going to be another week where the Bears seemingly disappear so get ready for that dilemma. It’s also just as likely you’ll get another game where the big three all perform at a high level. The Bears are in a weird place right now with a coach many want fired in conjunction with players who can all single handedly win you a football game. Speaking of players who can win you a game, the Minnesota Vikings are waiting to here if Adrian Peterson will be reinstated in time for this season. Should Peterson end up seeing the field, he should be treated like the Adrian Peterson of old. Without diving into the morale side of what Peterson has been dealing with, he absolutely needs to be owned unless the NFL declares him ineligible to return this season. I can’t imagine Peterson not being a top 10 back if/when he does return. That being said, I’m also not trying to trade for him in the event he isn’t allowed to return this season. You may only get him for the playoffs or not at all so if you can afford the roster spot, add him if he’s available. Beyond that, stay put and don’t give up anything of value for him until we have some more clarity.

 

49ers @ Giants

I’ve used this phrase before but I think it’s fair to recycle it in describing this game: this game fell out of the ugly tree and hit every branch on the way down. This contest was just absolutely bizarre. There were some weird plays here including a horrendous five interception performance from Eli Manning. Somehow, the Giants were actually still in this game despite the atrocious showing from Eli. Even with his five picks, Eli managed to get the ball to his top two receivers in Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham. Beckham in particular is just an absolute stud of a receiver. I mentioned last week that I expect the Giants to keep feeding Beckham the ball, potentially leading to him being the primary receiver for them. I think it’s safe to say we are well on our way to seeing Victor Cruz as Eli’s second favorite target next season. Between Cruz, Beckham, Randle, and a healthy Rashad Jennings, I fully expect the Giants to have a huge offensive bounce back year in 2015. Frank “Goonies Never Say Die” Gore showed up once again in this game to the tune of 95 yards on 19 attempts. He did fumble here but the 49ers realized they’re actually better when the give Gore the ball. Crazy concept huh? Gore is back to being a solid RB2 and is another decent buy low candidate for the playoff push. Michael Crabtree had a big touchdown in this game but for the most part I’m ignoring it. Crabtree has been inconsistent all year with Anquan Boldin as the only somewhat usable pass catcher in a WR3 kind of way. Oh, and Vernon Davis, droppable.

 

Raiders @ Chargers

Speaking of falling out of the ugly tree…I’m sensing a theme this week that most games were either surprising upsets or just plain old boring. I really struggled trying to find something of use to discuss about this game and could really only come up with Ryan Mathews and that’s not saying much. Apparently Mathews was limping upon this game’s conclusion but there isn’t much more information than that at the moment. Mathews limping after his first game in weeks isn’t all that alarming. It could mean he’s not fully healthy yet or it could just be his body readjusting to the rigor of an NFL game. Either way, Brandon Oliver should still be owned in all leagues, especially when you consider Ryan Mathews’ healthy history as a whole. He’s never exactly been a poster child for indestructability. This game truly was a stinker. Let’s get out of here.

 

Lions @ Cardinals

Not all low scoring games were created equal with the Cardinals edging out the Lions 14-6. Both of these defenses are formidable with teams that are seemingly guaranteed to make the playoffs at this point. Drew Stanton is now the starter in Arizona with Carson Palmer done for the year and here’s the thing: I actually think he’s just fine for what the Cardinals have been doing this season. They’re a balanced team that plays solid defense who needs just enough out of their quarterback not to lose. Palmer wasn’t putting up monster numbers before his injury but he was doing just enough to win. Two touchdowns a game will do it when you have running back Andre Ellington to rely on and a defense to back you up. I think Stanton can handle that just fine. It’s not all good news for the Cardinals, however, with Larry Fitzgerald needing an MRI to figure out the injury to his MCL. He did finish this game so this is likely a precautionary measure but it is worth monitoring. Should Fitzgerald miss any time, I suppose it’d be time to insert Michael Floyd back into the lineup. Floyd has been one of the most disappointing players in fantasy this year so I totally understand if you’ve already bailed on him. The only way he bounces back into fantasy relevancy is if Fitzgerald does indeed miss time. Speaking of dinged up receivers, Calvin Johnson was treated for an elbow injury here, which is better than him re-injuring his ankle. The severity of this injury is unclear at the moment so we’ll have to wait and see what happens with him. The Lions struggled on offense in Arizona but I fully expect them to be just fine going forward. Well, at least on the passing side of things anyway. I’m not touching any Detroit running back if I can help it. Reggie Bush remains hurt, Joique Bell has been meh, and Theo Riddick doesn’t get enough work even with the injury to Bush. It’s a real shame that this run game can’t get it together given the rest of Detroit’s weapons. This offense could and should be one of the more potent ones in the league but between injuries and lack of production they’ve had to rely on their formidable defense to win games. Stafford is another QB I’m kind of done with but not to the point where I’d drop him. He’s still start-worthy given his weapons and ability to go off any given week but if there’s an owner in my league willing to take him off my hands I’d gladly make the swap.

 

Eagles @ Packers

This game was a shootout in the way going to a driving range is a shootout. This contest was thoroughly one sided with the Packers crushing the eagles 53-20. Remember when Aaron Rodgers told us all to R.E.L.A.X.? He wasn’t messing around. Rodgers threw three touchdowns to three different receivers with Eddie Lacy finding the endzone on the ground to boot. Pretty much every relevant Packer had a big day between Rodgers, Lacy, Randall Cobb, and Jordy Nelson. I was going over playoff predictions with a friend and stated the NFL should probably just put the Packers in the Super Bowl right now since I don’t think anyone can stop them at this point. You’d probably have to sell the farm to acquire any Green Bay Packer in fantasy but it might actually be worth it right now, especially when you consider upcoming matchups against the Falcons and Buccaneers for the fantasy playoffs. Tasty. Mark Sanchez looked like Mark Sanchez in this game with his two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a whole lot of bobbled footballs. This must be what Sanchez is like with a good offensive coach. Good enough to be good but still Sanchez enough to be bad. I had mentioned that I was buying into the Jordan Matthews thing in my PPR sleepers piece and that was reinforced after his 107 yard day with a touchdown. Matthews is clearly the number two receiver on this team given how terrible Riley Cooper has been and the rapport Matthews is establishing with Sanchez. Sometimes a QB/WR combo just has the right chemistry between them and that’s what appears to be happening between Sanchez and Matthews. Matthews could easily be a WR3 the rest of the way so grab him now before it’s too late.

 

Patriots @ Colts

In what should have been the most entertaining and impactful game of the week we got another blowout with the Patriots running all over the Colts 42-20. Jonas Gray aside, Rob Gronkowski is an absolute monster. He’s just a freak of an athlete who is bigger and better than everyone else. What we should really be talking about is the injuries to Colts Ahmad Bradshaw and Dwayne Allen. Both of these injuries are crushing blows to an offense that utilizes multiple weapons. Coby Fleener filled in for Dwayne Allen with ease, racking up 144 yards on seven receptions. Allen had become a touchdown machine, which didn’t entirely translate to Fleener’s production, but you’ll absolutely take the yardage. I think Fleener could be an easy top 10 tight end should Allen miss significant time with his ankle injury. I believe the bigger blow to this team is actually the Ahmad Bradshaw injury mostly because Trent Richardson is no longer good at football. He had one good year and evaporated much to the delight of Browns fans after they traded him away. I suppose his value increases with Bradshaw potentially done for the year but I wouldn’t touch him with a ten-foot pole. In fact, I wouldn’t even want him on YOUR fantasy team. He’s just not good.

 

If you read this whole piece having already been eliminated from playoff contention I strongly admire your dedication to the game. It’s not easy playing it out when you’re already done but hey, fantasy is still fun. If you’re still alive and well, don’t be afraid to make a last minute deal in an attempt to go for the knockout blow to win your league.