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Week 11 NFL Matchups Analysis (Part 2): Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

Vladimir De Wet breaks down the second half of the Week 11 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find part two of our Week 11 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

 

Cowboys @ Dolphins - Sunday 11/22 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins - The first four weeks of the season Lamar Miller didn't score a single touchdown. The Dolphins then fired Joe Philbin, had a bye week, and now Miller has a streak of five weeks with a touchdwon. Despite not putting up the greatest yardage total Miller has still put up the third-most fantasy points of any RB this season (via Fleaflicker). The only time Miller hasn't contributed at an elite level to both the rushing and passing game over the last five weeks of the season is when the Dolphins got blown out by the Patriots 36-7. This week he's going against a Cowboys defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points and rushing touchdowns to opposing RBs. As long as this is a close game Miller will get 18-22 touches, which should be more than enough to do serious damage against the Cowboys.

Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys - In the last four weeks McFadden is averaging 23 carries for 99 yards and three catches for 25 yards. The fact that he has only scored once has made him just an avergae fantasy back, but the Cowboys commitment to him and the run is worth noting. With Tony Romo returning this week there might be a little less of a focus on McFadden and the run game. Hopefully the Cowboys realize that McFadden is going against a Dolphins team that has given up the third-most rushing yards in the league this season and the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. No matter the quarterback McFadden should see more than 20 touches against a weak front seven and have a good day.

Matchups We Hate:

Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins - After starting the season with three touchdowns and two 100-yard receiving games in the first three weeks, Matthews only has one score and one game over 85 receiving yards in his last seven games. The Cowboys have been in the better half in terms of passing defense all season. They've only given up more than 250 yards passing twice and are tied for the third-fewest passing touchdowns given up with nine. Matthews' inconsistency and a bad matchup make Matthews benchable this week.

Notable Players:

Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins - Landry has double-digit targets in all but three games this year as well as a rushing attempt in all but one. The Dolphins are committed to getting him the ball and he has produced at a decent level. He's an every-week WR2, but his lack of touchdowns keep him out of the WR1 conversation.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys - Dez has missed practice all week with a "foot" injury. He hasn't looked fully recovered from his surgery despite playing in the last three games. With Romo back Dez should see as many targets as he usually does and is worth the start. But with their season all but lost and his foot still not at 100%, I wonder how much longer the Cowboys risk it with their star receiver.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins - The Dolphins running game has been revived since Philbin's firing and as a result Tannehill looks like he might actually be worthy of his status as a franchise QB. The Dolphins have asked him to pass less the last five weeks and he's put up better numbers since then.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys - As long as Romo is fully healthy he is a QB1. Most of the team around him is healthy and they should all see upticks in their production as a result of Romo's return. This first week against a desperate Dolphins team is still a difficult matchup and one where the Cowboys should rely more on the run than the pass.

 

Chiefs @ Chargers - Sunday 11/22 @ 4:05 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Charcandrick West, RB, Chiefs - West has averaged 22 carries for 92 yards and a score the last three weeks. The Chiefs have won three straight games during that time as they have found some balance in their offense with West being the focal point. The Chargers give up a little less than five yards per carry and around 122 rushing yards per game. They have also given up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. With his skills and the team's reliance on him, West is a RB1 this week and moving forward.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs - The most consistent player on the Chiefs offense this season has been Kelce. He has at least four receptions in all but one game (where he had three) and is a top five TE in terms of total fantasy points. The Chargers have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Expect Kelce to get back in the end zone this week in what should be a high-scoring contest.

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers - Woodhead is second on the team in both rushing and receiving yards while leading the team with five total touchdowns. Outside of Philip Rivers he has been the most consistent Charger this season and is one of the most dangerous backs in PPR leagues. Woodhead has to be started in all formats every week, especially with the injuries to all of the Chargers skill players.

Matchups We Hate:

Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers - The Chargers keep handing Gordon the ball so he hasn't been as bad as everyone makes it seem. He hasn't been good by any stretch, but an average of 11 rushes and two receptions makes him a low-end flex option play some weeks. Against a Chiefs defense that has given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs Gordon isn't a flex or any other option this week. Despite the fact that the team seems to be losing healthy bodies every week, Gordon just hasn't looked like he's fully figured out the NFL game yet making him a liability as a fantasy starter.

Notable Players:

Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs - Alex Smith has "game-managed" his way to five straight weeks with a passing touchdown. With Drew Brees, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger not playing this week he is a solid option to start against a Chargers defense that is giving up the fifth-most points to opposing teams.

Steve Johnson, WR, Chargers - The loss of Keenan Allen hasn't done much to improve Johnson's production. While Johnson has definitely seen more targets, the difference hasn't amounted to an increase in fantasy points. Johnson is a WR3 with some upside but it looks like he is more of a possession receiver used to move the chains than an explosive weapon. Without any big plays this season Johnson just looks like an average veteran receiver.

 

Packers @ Vikings - Sunday 11/22 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers - If you ignore Rodgers' 77-yard debacle against the Broncos, he's averaged 292.5 yards passing while completing 60% of his passes with a total of 16 touchdowns to three interceptions. Considering the problems in the run game and on the offensive line those are pretty exceptional numbers. He's not playing at an MVP level, but his real life and fantasy demise have been greatly exaggerated. Rodgers is and has consistenly been worth the start every week.

DaVante Adams, WR, Packers - The second-year receiver has also been much-maligned, but in the last two weeks he's seen 32 targets. The Packers probably won't be able to manufacture a run game out of nowhere so expect them to keep putting the game in Rodgers' hands. Adams will keep seeing targets as a result.

Matchups We Hate:

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings - Rudolph has only gone over 30 yards receiving once this year while he's been below 10 yards three times. The Vikings have gone 6-2 utilizing Rudolph as a blocker, meaning that's unlikely to change. At this point Rudolph isn't worth a roster spot.

James Starks, RB, Packers - With Eddie Lacy hobbled by injuries, the Packers made the announcement that Starks will be the starting back moving forward last week. While that definitely bumps up Starks value, the fact is in the last four games the two have played together, Starks has gotten 31 more plays than Lacy, basically already assuming RB1 duties. Despite that Starks hasn't been as productive in the running game because the Packers don't seem capable of run-blocking with any consistency. The Vikings have a top-10 overall defense and should continue the Packers' streak of being unable to run the ball.

Notable Players:

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings - He's over 30, coming off a year without playing football and he currently leads the league in total rushing yards, yards per game, and rushing attempts. Peterson looks like he's only getting better as the season goes on. Green Bay is not very good at stopping the run this season and have given up an average of 112 yards on the ground over the last three weeks. The Vikings are on a five-game win streak and during that time Peterson has averaged 24 carries for 118 yards. A bad Packers run defense, a hot "All Day", and an important divisional game all suggest that a big day is coming for the league's leading rusher.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings - Bridgewater dealt with a concussion last week and is dealing with an injured shoulder this week. He should play on Sunday but isn't worth the fantasy start despite the fact this may be a higher-scoring game than usual for the Vikings.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers - After a breakout season last year, Cobb hasn't been able to fully live up to expectations this year. He's only been able to top 100 yards receiving once this season after doing it five times last season (and once during the playoffs). Cobb is also averaging his lowest yards per reception in his career and hasn't been able to find the end zone in six of nine games. He is fully healthy though and the Packers continue to look his way, so I do expect him to regress upwards down the stretch.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers - Lacy lost his starting job and is coming off an injury. The fact that he just hasn't looked good with the ball in his hands is my main reason for avoiding him this week. The idea that he lost his job will be forgotten about if he has two runs over 40 yards and hurdles a defender or three.

 

49ers @ Seahawks - Sunday 11/22 @ 4:25 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

No One. There isn't a single 49er I would start this week. Jimmy Graham and Russell Wilson are the only Seahawks I would consider seriously. Both teams are bad and this could easily turn into a defensive matchup with no real standout fantasy players to speak of when the game's over.

Matchups We Hate:

Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers - Hyde has missed a few weeks with a foot injury but hsould return on Sunday. If Hydedoes play he'll be going against a strong Seahawks run defense with an injured foot. The 49ers have been desperate at running back so they have a staple of them to choose from. Carlos should be a better option as the season goes on but this first week back isn't a good week to start him.

Notable Players:

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks - Graham just hasn't been able to establish any consistent rhythm both within games and for the overall season. He had two catches for 31 yards against this 49ers team in week seven. With no consistent run game and no focus on getting Graham the ball he's become a borederline top 10 TE after being arguably the top dawg the last few years.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, 49ers - Gabbert didn't look like the worst QB in the league last week. After a bye week he might even look respectable. I doubt it, but you never know. I never thought Kaepernick would be benched so stranger things have happened.

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks - Baldwin had a great game last week (7/134/1) but that shouldn't make people forget about how awful a season he's had overall. Baldwin's been below the 40 receiving yard mark in six of the team's nine games. If you were to take out last week's good game then Baldwin would be averaging the fewest yards per game and per catch in his career. He's never been a prolific receiver but he's gotten more snaps this year and has already started nine games, the second most of his career, but he's just not producing at a level to be considered in most fantasy formats.

 

Bengals @ Cardinals - Sunday 11/22 @ 8:30 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals - Dalton had a bad primetime game...again. Going to go with his overall production from the year and say that last week's lost was an aberation rather than a return to Earth for Dalton. He's got his highest completion percentage and touchdown percentage with the lowest turnover rate of his career this year. As long as the Bengals can continue to allow Dalton to evenly distribute the ball around and not just target A.J. Green all the time then the Red Rifle should be a good bet to produce even against a strong Cardinals defense.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals - Fitzgerald hasn't slowed down yet this season continuing to average a little less than seven receptions per game over the last four. With 65 receptions through nine games Fitzgerald has already surpassed his total from last year and is on pace to pass his career high of 103 receptions in a season. He has to be started every game no matter the matchup.

Matchups We Hate:

Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals - Hill has lost his job to Giovani Bernard whether the Bengals say Hill is the starter or not. Hill hasn't been injured like Eddie Lacy but both big, bruising backs seem to have lost a step despite the fact both are under 26 years old.

Notable Players:

A.J. Green ,WR, Bengals - Green hasn't put up the ridiculous superstar numbers he usually does through this point in the season. He has still been both highly effective and productive, but because the Bengals are willing to spread the wealth around his individual stats have taken a slight dip in most categories. Also, whenever Dalton has a bad game there is a guarantee usually that Green also had one. Both young stars have to be on top of their game for this team to look as unstoppable as it did at times this year. Expect both Green and Dalton to show up in primetime for once on Sunday Night.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals - Both Green and Dalton had bad games last week, Eifert just looked downright bad. Mini Gronk turned into Mini Stone Hands with three drops and just bad overall play. I fully expect him to redeem himself against a strong Cardinals secondary that should be focused on the weapons the Bengals have on the outside.

Chris Johnson, RB, Cardinals - Just like Fitzgerald, age hasn't seemed to slow down Chris Johnson either. Although he only had 58 yards rushing last week and no touchdown, the fact that the Cardinals felt comfortable handing him the ball 25 times shows just how committed they are to maintaining balance even when they can't actually run the ball. The Seahawks were a bad matchup for Johnson but they just kept giving him the ball and as long as that continues there really isn't a bad matchup for CJ2k.

 

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