RADIO
10 weeks of NFL action equals 10 weeks of data. One variable can change the equation.
New faces in primary roles can help or hinder the fantasy football assets we've relied on for over half of the season. Can Mac Jones support any Jacksonville playmaker? Will Audric Estime demote Javonte Williams to the waiver wire? Is Tyjae Spears ruining Tony Pollard?
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Audric Estime (RB, DEN) vs. Atlanta
Sean Payton talked the talk and then walked the walk. Before Week 10, Denver's head coach said running back Audric Estime would get more work. The rookie led the team backfield in snap percentage (45%), carries (14), and yards (53). He averaged fewer than four yards per attempt but the Broncos were against one of the best rush defenses in football. Atlanta is several tiers below Kansas City in that department.
Where Estime may struggle is in the receiving game. Rushing for 50-60 yards isn't bad when running backs add a few receptions. Estime hasn't caught a pass in the NFL and played five of 13 third-down snaps in Week 10. Javonte Williams also saw five third-down snaps and caught two passes. That's not a role Estime has taken over just yet. It would be beneficial, as the Falcons allow six receptions per game to the position.
1. The Broncos have a 20.3% RB target share that is 6th highest
2. Audric Estime appears to be the new lead Broncos RB
3. Estime has 29 carries this season
4. Estime has 0 targets this season pic.twitter.com/5OanJKDHHz— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 11, 2024
As much as Estime deserved to be the top waiver-wire addition this week, he's still the leader of a three-headed backfield. Estime could run for 75 yards and still be a disappointment without a reception. And what happens if Denver gets into a negative game script? Estime's stock is rising, but he has more to prove before becoming a full-time fantasy starter.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX) at Detroit
In a perfect world (for Travis Etienne Jr. fantasy managers), Tank Bigsby's ankle injury keeps him sidelined in Week 11, thus concentrating the division of labor among Jacksonville's running backs. But an Etienne-dominant backfield hasn't fared well for fantasy football since Week 3.
Tank Bigsby (ankle) once again DNP today; was not on-field during media viewing portion of practice.
Brian Thomas Jr, Gabe Davis, Josh Hines-Allen and Tyson Campbell were all on-field but in non-contact pinnies#Jaguars | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/ASYlNXfaUr
— Mia O'Brien (@MiaOBrienTV) November 14, 2024
Bigsby got two carries against Minnesota last week before leaving the game. Etienne finished with 11 carries for 44 yards and one catch for -1 yards. The Lions are a comparable rush defense to the Vikings. Both have allowed under 700 rushing yards in nine games. The difference is rushing touchdowns (seven to Minnesota's three). The Lions allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position this season.
Can Etienne get lucky with a one-yard touchdown plunge? Sure. But that requires Jacksonville to get to the goal line, something it did just once in Week 10. Etienne got stuffed in that situation. This offense wasn't great before. With Mac Jones, fantasy managers watch with a sense of impending dread.
James Cook (RB, BUF) vs. Kansas City
Would you believe me if I told you that Audric Estime ran for the second-most yards of any running back to face the Chiefs this season? Jordan Mason led the 49ers to 74 rushing yards, the highest team total against Kansas City. It allows 3.17 yards per carry.
Ok, but James Cook can make up for the lack of rushing efficiency in the passing game! We've seen that happen as recently as two weeks ago against the Dolphins. But he also caught just one pass against Indianapolis, even with top receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman out of the lineup. Dalton Kincaid could miss this week as well. Depending on receiving isn't a surefire strategy, and Kansas City hasn't allowed a running back to score a receiving touchdown.
Fantasy managers likely can't (and shouldn't) bench Cook with four teams on bye. Expectations should be managed, however.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT) vs. Baltimore
There are defined roles in the Pittsburgh backfield. Najee Harris handles the early down rushing work. Jaylen Warren plays on nearly all third-down snaps. Warren has at least two receptions in every game that he didn't leave with an injury. In the three games that Warren has played 45% of the snaps or more, Harris has a combined one reception.
The Ravens' defense this year is allowing just 73.0 Rush YPG 🏰
That is the 6th least by any team in any season since 2000
Baltimore ranks 6th out of 798 😈 https://t.co/4mcpaKu4RR pic.twitter.com/z6Wi6y72Pk
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 14, 2024
Warren will be called upon in a very important divisional battle against Baltimore. As the world witnessed on Thursday Night Football, the Ravens let quarterbacks dump it down to their running backs. Chase Brown had nine receptions. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for five. Rachaad White secured six passes in Week 7.
That leaves Harris to establish the ground game. The Ravens give up 3.22 yards per carry to running backs. That only trails the Kansas City Chiefs. If you like to watch your running back run two yards into a brick wall 10+ times a game, then Harris is your guy.
Note: Jaylen Warren missed Thursday's practice with a back injury. Harris's outlook improves if Warren misses the game.
Tony Pollard (RB, TEN) vs. Minnesota
Throughout the offseason, the Tennessee coaching staff adamantly stated that Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears were 1A and 1B. Both backs would get a fair share of touches. That wasn't the case.
Pollard dominated opportunities through Spears' four healthy games. In the other four games (including the one Spears left early), Pollard averaged 23 touches. The coaching staff acknowledged that wasn't sustainable.
When Spears returned to the lineup last week, Pollard saw 13 touches and Spears got 10. In a vacuum, 13 touches aren't bad for fantasy football. But it's nothing compared to Pollard's prior volume. Pollard briefly left the game to get checked on by the medical staff, which only furthers the point. In tough matchups like Los Angeles last week, volume is needed, especially on a below-average Tennessee offense.
The Vikings are one spot behind the Chargers for points allowed to running backs. With four teams (and five startable running backs) on bye this week, Pollard is probably still in starting lineups, but another letdown game is in the cards.
Drake London, Darnell Mooney (WR, ATL) at Denver
As we have nearly all season, Pat Surtain II is a matchup we like to avoid. In past games, he's mostly followed opposing alpha receivers. Last week, Surtain covered DeAndre Hopkins on 19 of his 29 routes. Hopkins scored three fantasy points when they were matched up.
Week 10 Shadow Report from @FantasyPtsData
- KC shadowed Sutton with McDuffie and Sutton won
- Shakir was shutdown by Kenny Moore
- Pat Surtain shutdown DeAndre Hopkins when he matched up with him pic.twitter.com/iFc2UpsPN7— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) November 12, 2024
While Drake London is the "No. 1" receiver in Atlanta, he and Darnell Mooney are WR2s in fantasy points per game. Mooney leads the league in fantasy points on third and fourth down. He's arguably been the more important wide receiver for the Falcons.
Surtain is most often lined up on the left side of the field when he's not shadowing. Atlanta shuffles its receivers, and although Mooney is the primary left outside receiver, London and Ray-Ray McCloud III have over 100 snaps in that spot. It will be interesting to see how defensive coordinator Vance Joseph deploys his star cornerback.
And that's not to take away from the rest of the Denver defense. Led by Surtain, the secondary allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. London and Mooney have a downgrade in the rankings this week. If Surtain shadows one, it could be outright miserable.
Kirk Cousins (QB, ATL) at Denver
Kirk Cousins is having a good season, right? He's the QB11 and has two games of over 28 fantasy points.
That's the issue. Eight of his 17 passing touchdowns and over 800 of his 2,634 passing yards were against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the worst defense against fantasy football quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins completed 42 of 58 passes for 509 yards, 4 TDs and an INT, with all 509 yards coming from passes within the pocket, the most in a game in the NGS era (since 2016).
Cousins Passing Between Numbers: 27/33, 385 yards, 3 TD (+25.1 EPA)#TBvsATL | @AtlantaFalcons pic.twitter.com/FjJ9TCKvJl
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 4, 2024
He has nine touchdowns in his eight other games! If we were grading him on consistency, he'd be failing.
Not only is Cousins not facing Tampa Bay again, but he and the Falcons travel to Denver in Week 11. Only one quarterback (Lamar Jackson) has scored more than 20 fantasy points against Denver this season. The unit surrenders the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Jordan Love (QB, GB) at Chicago
The last time we saw Jordan Love, he was managing a groin injury in the pouring rain. It contributed to two straight games without a touchdown. The bye week should put that problem in the past.
The Bears allow the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, although they've slipped in the last four weeks with injuries in the secondary. Based on how the offense operates, it's still a difficult matchup for Love specifically.
The Packers have the fifth-lowest pass rate (50 percent) in neutral game scripts. The Bears are a run-funnel defense and allow the fourth-most yards per carry. This sets up as a Josh Jacobs game.
Jaylon Johnson on Jordan Love having 10 interceptions already in 2024:
“Hopefully he does that in our game.” pic.twitter.com/wtH3YCC3Hb
— CHGO Bears (@CHGO_Bears) November 14, 2024
With all the hubbub about Chicago firing its offensive coordinator and the new play-caller coming to save the offense, it's easy to forget that there are injuries aplenty on the Chicago offensive line. That's been just as big a factor in its two-game touchdown drought as Shane Waldron's lack of creativity. Love may not need to pass much to win.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX) at Detroit
Before we dive into Evan Engram's Week 11 outlook, let's rewind and look at Jacksonville's Week 10 receiving numbers.
| Receptions | Receiving Yards | |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 40 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 25 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 19 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 16 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 12 |
Those five players and Travis Etienne Jr. were the only ones to record a reception against Minnesota. A kindergartner can do the math to determine how many wide receivers caught the football -- three catches for 31 yards. The Vikings don't have a good pass defense, either.
All this to say, Engram was the only Jaguar who didn't completely burn fantasy managers a week ago, and he did it in the ugliest way possible with three receptions on Jacksonville's final drive. This offense is a disaster under Mac Jones.
The Lions are the second-best defense against fantasy football tight ends this season. They allow the second-fewest yards and third-fewest receptions, and just one tight end (Seattle's AJ Barner) has found paydirt. The Detroit defense will key in on Engram, especially if Jones can't connect with his other playmakers again.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL) vs. Houston
Last week, I asked how much you can trust Cooper Rush. The answer was a lot less than we originally hoped. The career backup attempted 23 passes. He totaled 45 yards.
Only two players have more than 50 targets this season and *0* receiving touchdowns:
Trey McBride (65)
Jake Ferguson (57)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 12, 2024
That makes it even more impressive that Jake Ferguson led the 'Boys with 24 receiving yards (although 10 of those came from a Trey Lance pass). Fantasy managers regretted starting him, CeeDee Lamb, and Rico Dowdle against a surging Philadelphia defense.
Houston doesn't have the defensive pedigree that the Eagles do, at least against most positions. However, the Texans trump the Eagles in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Houston sits atop the list. The matchup, plus the quarterback play, should be enough for fantasy managers to look elsewhere.
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