RADIO
Week 10 just wrapped up with the Broncos stunning the Bills in Buffalo on Monday Night Football. And it’s on to Week 11 and the fantasy decisions we are faced with can be the difference between making your playoffs or not this late in the season. We have four bye teams again this week with the Falcons, Colts, Patriots, and Saints, so no big losses to the DST game. The Cowboys are my top DST again this week against the Panthers, and the Dolphins and Lions are my top streamers versus the Raiders and Bears, respectively.
The Broncos have had some solid DST outings in recent weeks with eight fantasy points at Buffalo in Week 10 and 17 fantasy points against the Chiefs in Week 8. They are a unit I’m keeping my eyes on. The top DST score went to the rejuvenated 49ers in Week 10 in a slightly negative matchup against the Jaguars. The Colts came through as the top streamer in Week 10 with five sacks and six points allowed versus the Patriots, good for 17 standard fantasy points. The Ravens and Browns traded defensive TDs with each other to both finish in the top five, and the Buccaneers were also a successful streamer with four sacks and only six points allowed to the Titans.
On the disappointing end of the spectrum, the Saints DST never showed up against the Vikings, scoring the fifth-fewest fantasy points of Week 10. The Falcons were a popular streamer for some against the Cardinals in Kyler Murray’s first game back. I had them ranked 17th so I wasn’t on that page, and the Falcons disappointed with only four fantasy points. The Seahawks were in a good spot at home against the Commanders but came away with only five fantasy points. But it’s a new week so let’s get into it.
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How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but as stated above, the top ones from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Ravens’ DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Panthers’ DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Ravens’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Panthers’ DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (POA) allowed is -7. Team B’s POA allowed is +4. I assign a weight to POA, which is factored into the overall rank. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams that can hold their opponent to less than 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
Dallas Cowboys DST vs. @CAR
Yahoo Rostership%: 100%
Vegas Odds: DAL favored by 10.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 15.5
For the second week in a row, the Cowboys DST tops the rankings, this time against the 23rd-ranked Panthers. The Cowboys didn’t smash as hard as everyone thought they would in Week 10 against the Giants. They did have five sacks but generated only one turnover and gave up 17 points. A solid effort but still somewhat disappointing based on expectations. The only concern I had with this play last week is exactly what happened. The Cowboys were so dominant that they limited their opportunities for DST points. The Giants ran only 50 plays and scored all of their points after being down 28-0 at halftime.
I expect more opportunities for the Cowboys' defense against the Panthers, a team that throws it a lot more than the Tommy Devito version of the Giants. The Panthers rank 27th in offensive DOA and rookie QB Bryce Young has shown a propensity to turn the ball over.
San Francisco 49ers DST vs. TB
Yahoo Rostership%: 91%
Vegas Odds: SF favored by 10.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 15.5
After a string of disappointing fantasy performances, the 49ers DST came roaring back in Week 10 coming off of their bye. With recently acquired Chase Young, the 49ers completely dominated the Jaguars, who have been a negative DST matchup. San Francisco finished the game with four turnovers, five sacks, and only three points allowed, good for 20 fantasy points. This was a welcome result for those rostering the 49ers DST, as they were coming off a three-game losing streak in which they had only five total sacks and allowed 24 points per game.
The Buccaneers are not the most ideal DST matchup, currently ranking 13th against DSTs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. But this defense is hot again and you’ll never guess where the Jaguars ranked entering Week 10…13th.
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
Miami Dolphins DST vs. LV
Yahoo Rostership%: 41%
Vegas Odds: MIA favored by 11.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 47.5
Implied points against: 18
After a string of bad matchups, the Dolphins now enter one of the juicier stretches of DST opponents, starting against the Raiders in Week 11. If you have been reading this series over the last month, I have been talking about the Dolphins in the look-ahead portion for weeks. They were above 50% rostership a few weeks ago, but I predicted that would drop during their bye week, and they now sit at 41%. They are the top DST add in Week 11 as they have five straight positive plus matchups through Week 15.
Baltimore Ravens DST vs. CIN
Yahoo Rostership%: 98%
Vegas Odds: BAL favored by 3.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 21
The Ravens are the highest-ranked DST with a top-10 toughest opponent (Bengals). That’s because Baltimore is about as close to a “matchup-proof” DST as we have right now. Even in a close loss and allowing 27 points to division rival Browns, the Ravens managed 14 fantasy points thanks to a defensive TD.
The Ravens rank second in defensive DVOA and lead the NFL with 39 sacks. And they’ve been getting home against QBs with the seventh-lowest pressure rate. The Ravens don’t have the best look-ahead schedule, with the Chargers in Week 12 followed by a bye in Week 13. But don’t overthink it this week as they are still a top-shelf option against the Bengals.
Detroit Lions DST vs. CHI
Yahoo Rostership%: 30%
Vegas Odds: DET favored by 10
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 18.3
After the Dolphins, technically a streamer with a rostership of less than 50%, the Lions are the next best DST streamer for Week 11. Even if Justin Fields returns from his hand injury, the Bears are still a top-five fantasy-friendly matchup. The Lions may seem like an odd choice ranked this high coming off of a negative points game against the Chargers, but the Chargers have been one of the toughest DST matchups all season. The Bears have a season-long POA allowed to DSTs of +3.8 PPG and have allowed a positive POA in only two of 10 games.
That may not move the needle a lot for a Lions DST averaging only 6.1 fantasy PPG (20th), but Detroit has excelled in positive matchups. In four positive DST matchups (ATL, GB, CAR, LV), the Lions have averaged 9.3 fantasy points and 4.8 sacks per game.
Cleveland Browns DST vs. PIT
Yahoo Rostership%: 83%
Vegas Odds: CLE favored by 4
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 16.8
If you “took your lumps” by sticking with the Browns in a bad matchup against the Ravens in Week 10, you were rewarded with 13 standard fantasy points. Like their opponent, the Browns made up for allowing 20+ points by scoring a defensive TD. The Steelers have turned into a surprisingly tough DST matchup, ranking as the seventh-toughest opponent in adjusted fantasy points allowed. But Kenny Pickett is still the Steelers’ QB and the Browns have the fifth-highest pressure rate and are tied for the third-most sacks in the NFL.
They’re also tied for the fifth-most interceptions with nine and are the top-ranked unit in defensive DVOA. And with an over-under at 37.5 points and an implied total of only 16.8 points for the Steelers, this looks to be a low-scoring affair with enough opportunity for sacks and turnovers to give the Browns’ DST a safe floor.
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
Pittsburgh Steelers DST @CLE
Yahoo Rostership%: 92%
Vegas Odds: CLE favored by 4
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 20.8
The Steelers have been a decent defense lately, not allowing more than 20 points scored since Week 4 against the Texans. This hasn’t translated into huge fantasy scores as their PPG over the last five games is 7.2. But that is a solid floor against the 23rd-ranked Browns, a team they scored 26 fantasy points against back in Week 2.
Buffalo Bills DST vs. NYJ
Yahoo Rostership%: 97%
Vegas Odds: BUF favored by 6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 17
The underperforming Bills DST is strictly a matchup play in Week 11. Having just lost embarrassingly to the Broncos, the Bills are still an overrated and over-rostered DST at 97% in Yahoo leagues. They did get back to four sacks against Denver for the first time since Week 5, but they extended their streak of games without an interception to six games.
But the matchup. The Jets rank as the second-best matchup for fantasy DSTs and have a POA allowed of +7.2 PPG over the last three games. The Jets rank 30th in offensive DVOA and head coach Robert Saleh’s recent comments about the Jets sticking with Zach Wilson mean that likely does not improve.
Washington Commanders DST vs. NYG
Yahoo Rostership%: 21%
Vegas Odds: WAS favored by 9.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 13.5
The Commanders are another Tier 3 start because of the matchup. Washington is not a good defense. They weren’t that good before trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young, and now they are worse. They rank 30th in defensive DVOA and rank 31st in DST fantasy PPG. But the Giants and their offense have descended to such a state of being outmatched that it forces me to boost up any DST playing against them, including the Commanders. You just can’t pass up an implied total of only 13.5 points for the Giants in this matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. PHI
Yahoo Rostership%: 62%
Vegas Odds: KC favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 21.8
The Chiefs are the opposite of the last two DSTs discussed (BUF and WAS). Kansas City boasts one of the better defenses in the NFL but has a negative matchup against the 10th-ranked Eagles. But negative matchups haven’t stopped the Chiefs DST from solid fantasy outings as of late. Two of their last four games were against the Chargers (third) and Dolphins (11th) and they scored double-digit fantasy points against both teams.
The Chiefs rank third in defensive DVOA and have averaged 4.5 sacks per game over the last four games. They are second in pressure rate and have the second-most sacks (31) behind only Baltimore. And with their upcoming schedule, if the Chiefs are somehow available in your league, they are a higher priority pickup than the Dolphins.
Jacksonville Jaguars DST vs. TEN
Yahoo Rostership%: 20%
Vegas Odds: JAX favored by 6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 17
The Jaguars are coming off a bludgeoning at the hand of the 49ers in Week 10, the toughest matchup for fantasy DSTs. But before that game, Jacksonville had nine or more DST fantasy points in four of their last five games. The Titans rank 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs and have a POA allowed of +4.1 PPG over the last three games. At only 20% rostership, the Jaguars are a solid streaming option in Week 11.
Los Angeles Chargers DST @GB
Yahoo Rostership%: 23%
Vegas Odds: LAC favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 44.5
Implied points against: 20.8
The Chargers get the last spot in Tier 3 with a matchup against the 21st-ranked Packers. The Chargers are another example of a below-average defense (ranked 27th in defensive DVOA) that has been unstartable in negative matchups but put up decent fantasy scores in positive ones. In their matchups against teams ranked 16th or worse against DSTs, the Chargers have scored at least nine points and/or had five sacks in all of them. The Chargers are another decent streaming option this week.
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, multiple DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 11
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 11 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 11.
Rest-of-Season Look-Ahead
The following chart shows each fantasy defense’s remaining schedule with each opponent color-coded based on rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Red and orange indicate tougher matchups while green represents easier matchups. Each opponent’s corresponding number rank can be found on the right side of the chart. Also included are the strength of schedule scores for the rest of the fantasy regular season (Weeks 11-14) and the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17).
A strategy this visual depiction assists with is developing what I like to call a Streaming Action Plan. This is also something I’ll be updating or adding to each week where I present potential action plans for DST streamers over multiple future weeks. Of course, a lot can change (and quickly) in the NFL, but I am constantly utilizing this look-ahead “puzzle piece” strategy so I want to share it with you. Unless otherwise noted, this will feature DST options that are below a 50% rostership during the current week.
I like to look four to five weeks ahead when strategizing these action plans. Looking at Weeks 11-14, here are potential pieces and weekly options for a DST Streaming Action Plan:
- Week 11: Dolphins (vs. LV), Lions (vs. CHI), Commanders (vs. NYG), and Jaguars (vs. TEN).
- Week 12: Patriots (@NYG), Vikings (vs. CHI), Lions (vs. GB).
- Week 13: Buccaneers (vs. CAR), Colts (@TEN), Falcons (@NYJ).
- Week 14: Lions (@CHI), Packers (@NYG), Vikings (@LV).
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 11
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 11, here is the full list of ranks for all 28 teams playing this week. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 11 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
If you prefer a simple grid, you can check out this chart as well:
| DST | Tier | Rank | Ros. | Opp. | Opp. Rank | Over / Under | Spread | Imp. Pts. Against |
| Cowboys DST | 1 | 1 | 100% | @CAR | 32 | 41.5 | -10.5 | 15.5 |
| 49ers DST | 1 | 2 | 91% | TB | 14 | 41.5 | -10.5 | 15.5 |
| Dolphins DST | 2 | 3 | 41% | LV | 28 | 47.5 | -11.5 | 18 |
| Ravens DST | 2 | 4 | 98% | CIN | 8 | 45.5 | -3.5 | 21 |
| Lions DST | 2 | 5 | 30% | CHI | 29 | 46.5 | -10 | 18.3 |
| Browns DST | 2 | 6 | 83% | PIT | 7 | 37.5 | -4 | 16.8 |
| Steelers DST | 3 | 7 | 92% | @CLE | 23 | 37.5 | 4 | 20.8 |
| Bills DST | 3 | 8 | 97% | NYJ | 31 | 40.5 | -6.5 | 17 |
| Commanders DST | 3 | 9 | 21% | NYG | 30 | 36.5 | -9.5 | 13.5 |
| Chiefs DST | 3 | 10 | 62% | PHI | 10 | 46.5 | -3 | 21.8 |
| Jaguars DST | 3 | 11 | 20% | TEN | 22 | 40.5 | -6.5 | 17 |
| Chargers DST | 3 | 12 | 23% | @GB | 21 | 43.5 | -3 | 20.3 |
| Texans DST | 4 | 13 | 5% | ARI | 27 | 47.5 | -4.5 | 21.5 |
| Eagles DST | 4 | 14 | 76% | @KC | 12 | 46.5 | 3 | 24.8 |
| Vikings DST | 4 | 15 | 18% | @DEN | 16 | 43 | 1.5 | 22.3 |
| Seahawks DST | 4 | 16 | 69% | @LAR | 19 | 46 | -1 | 22.5 |
| Bengals DST | 4 | 17 | 34% | @BAL | 9 | 45.5 | 3.5 | 24.5 |
| Jets DST | 4 | 18 | 90% | @BUF | 2 | 40.5 | 6.5 | 23.5 |
| Rams DST | 4 | 19 | 7% | SEA | 15 | 46 | 1 | 23.5 |
| Titans DST | 5 | 20 | 6% | @JAX | 25 | 40.5 | 6.5 | 23.5 |
| Broncos DST | 5 | 21 | 19% | MIN | 18 | 43 | -1.5 | 20.8 |
| Giants DST | 5 | 22 | 4% | @WAS | 26 | 36.5 | 9.5 | 23 |
| Packers DST | 5 | 23 | 21% | LAC | 3 | 45.5 | 3 | 24.3 |
| Raiders DST | 5 | 24 | 63% | @MIA | 11 | 47.5 | 11.5 | 29.5 |
| Buccaneers DST | 5 | 25 | 44% | @SF | 1 | 41.5 | 10.5 | 26 |
| Bears DST | 5 | 26 | 42% | @DET | 5 | 46.5 | 10 | 28.3 |
| Cardinals DST | 5 | 27 | 2% | @HOU | 4 | 47.5 | 4.5 | 26 |
| Panthers DST | 5 | 28 | 7% | DAL | 6 | 41.5 | 10.5 | 26 |
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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