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Week 10 NFL Matchups Analysis (Part 1): Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

mike evans fantasy football dynasty analysis

Zach Wilkens analyzes the Week 10 NFL matchups for 2015, and provides fantasy football start/sit advice (part 1). Set your optimal lineups based on fantasy football matchups.

Zach Wilkens breaks down the first half of the Week 10 matchups for the 2015 NFL football season. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis for the later games.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find part one of our Week 10 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

 

Lions @ Packers - Sunday 11/15 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers - Even despite a loss last week, Rodgers bounced back fantasy-wise with a huge day. The Lions are a great matchup, so expect another big day from Aaron Rodgers.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers - Playing in the slot, Cobb was fortunate enough to avoid Josh Norman and have a very nice fantasy day. The fact that he only had four catches on 12 targets is troubling but at the end of the day fantasy owners were satisfied. I’ll be expecting a more efficient Cobb this week and he should have strong numbers once again.

James Starks, RB, Packers - Starks has been playing better than Eddie Lacy for most of the season and it finally paid off. Head Coach Mike McCarthy indicated that Starks would be the #1 this week. That’s great news for his owners because the Lions are a very good matchup. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. They have allowed the most RB rushing scores this season (11).

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions - The elite receiver is still on pace for over 1,300 yards this season but he has suffered from Stafford’s declining play. Megatron has just three touchdowns on the season which is pretty disappointing for a player that has averaged 10 a season over the last seven years. He should put up decent yardage totals - he has at least 80 yards or a touchdown in each of their last seven matchups. That is enough to keep him a low-end WR1 this week.

Matchups We Hate:

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers - With Lacy now on the lesser side of the split he should be avoided this week. He has an awful 2.4 YPC over his last four games. I’m not ruling out a chance for a rebound at some point, but things look very bleak at the moment.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions - After an offensive outburst against the Bears in Week 6, Stafford returned to normal levels in his last two games before the bye. He’s been really inconsistent this year and has four games with under 10 fantasy points. He certainly has upside but I’d avoid him.

Notable Players:

James Jones & Davante Adams, WRs, Packers - Adams had one of the best games of his career last week while James Jones was mostly shut down. This has led many rankers to put Adams ahead of Jones this week. My issue is that Jones was supposed to be shut down against Josh Norman last week. Let’s not forget that he had six touchdowns in six games before the past two games - which I’d argue were his two toughest matchups. I’m fairly certain that Jones is still the #2 and the better play over Adams. Both can be flex-worthy but I’d feel much better with Jones.

Richard Rodgers, TE, Packers - Were Richard Rodgers two goal line touchdowns last week a sign of things to come? I like the idea of Rodgers as the top touchdown threat in this offense but with his extremely low yardage totals (28 yards per game) he looks more like Kyle Rudolph than a top-ten tight end. The Lions have given up six tight end scores this year, so he’s not a bad option this week if you lack a clear starter.

Golden Tate, WR, Lions - Tate has been a far bigger disappointment than Calvin Johnson. He’s on pace for a respectable 80 catches and I don’t think anyone really expected him to score more than a few touchdowns (he has just one this season, four last year) but what is surprising is a dip in yards per catch to 9.4. That's a full four yards less than last year and even over a yard lower than his previous career low as a rookie in Seattle. This seems more like something that is likely to regress in a positive way. Don’t be surprised if Tate quietly plays like a fantasy WR2 in the second half, and that could very well start this week.

Eric Ebron, TE, Lions - Ebron is having a decent year that is a huge step up over his rookie season. He still isn’t an every-week fantasy starter but he is definitely in consideration on a weekly basis. I have Ebron in my top ten this week. The Lions will have to throw a lot to keep up and the Packers give up the 10th-most points to tight ends.

 

Cowboys @ Buccaneers - Sunday 11/15 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Doug Martin, RB, Bucs - Martin has been very quiet the last two weeks but that should change this week. RBs have a 4.3 YPC against the Cowboys. The Cowboys have also given up over 100 rushing yards in five of their last six games. Doug Martin is a must-start this week.

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys - Many were worried that Dez Bryant wouldn’t hold much value while Cassel was at the helm but he reminded everybody how good he is last week. I guess you could call that jump-ball touchdown a little fluky, but the Bucs allow the fourth-most points to opposing WRs. Dez will have a very good day.

Matchups We Hate:

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Bucs - ASJ has been on the verge of returning the last two weeks and it looks like this will finally be the week. Unfortunately for him it’s not a very good matchup. The Cowboys have allowed just two tight end touchdowns all year and less than 50 yards per game to TEs. Furthermore, Jameis Winston has averaged just 23 throws and under 200 passing yards when the Bucs win. If the Bucs take a lead there won’t be a lot of room for ASJ to have a good day. With the line for this game at even there is a good chance that happens.

Notable Players:

Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys - It’s not a great matchup but McFadden has really impressed over his last few games. Since grabbing the starting role he has averaged over 130 yards from scrimmage over the last three games. The Bucs haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown or 100-yard rusher since Alfred Blue in Week 3, but that could change this week.

Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys - Witten is ol’ reliable as far as tight ends go. In PPR leagues, Witten has scored 8+ points in all but one game. Last week’s six catches for 43 yards wasn’t anything special but netting six receptions keeps it from being an awful day. Witten usually does that and he’ll probably end up with around six catches for 50-60 yards here.

Mike Evans, WR, Bucs - As you probably know, Evans had a brutal day as far as drops go last week. Yet he still finished with over 150 yards for the second time this season. I don’t think he is going to be plagued with multiple drops weekly and so he will remain a top-15 WR this week.

Charles Sims, RB, Bucs - Sims is on pace for over 1000 yards from scrimmage. He has a respectable 20 catches but I feel like he should have more. The Cowboys allow 6.5 RB receptions per game so this makes Sims an intriguing PPR play this week.

 

Panthers @ Titans - Sunday 11/15 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers - The Titans give up the sixth-most points to opposing tight ends, including two TE touchdowns to the Saints last week (although neither were to Ben Watson). Olsen has been great this season, as he's on pace for career highs in yards and touchdowns. He should be in your lineup without question.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers - The Titans are not a great matchup for QBs but they certainly aren't a bad one. Cam is running more than ever at 9.1 rushes per game and that is huge for his fantasy value. Expect that to continue, yielding a solid day for Newton.

Matchups We Hate:

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers - The Titans allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs, believe it or not. Last week they did a great job on Mark Ingram. For someone like Jonathan Stewart who is already limited because of Cam’s great goal-line ability, this is just an extra reason to avoid. I have Jonathan Stewart at RB20 this week.

Notable Players:

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans - It’s a tough matchup but Mariota has proven himself worthy of fantasy consideration. A lot of other middle-tier QBs have even worse matchups this week. Mariota has scored at least 15 points in four of his six games. He should be right around that number this week.

Antonio Andrews, RB, Titans - Andrews is a not a very exciting workhorse back right now but he has averaged 4.6 YPC over the last three games. With 19 and 20 touches in the last two games that makes him intriguing for fantasy purposes. I have him at RB25 in this somewhat tough matchup.

Delanie Walker, TE, Titans - Walker is coming off a fantastic game, but don’t expect as much here. The Panthers have allowed three TE touchdowns in the last two games, so there is some hope. Walker is unlikely to get a lot of yards this week so it will be more touchdown-or-bust. Given the targets Walker sees, he remains in my top ten.

 

Bears @ Rams - Sunday 11/15 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams - The Bears have not allowed an RB rushing touchdown since Week 2. However, Todd Gurley is insane and has not gone below 15 fantasy points since his first start. I’d argue last week’s matchup against the Vikings was tougher than this one. While he didn’t get 100 rushing yards, he still passed that test with flying colors and I believe he will do so here as well.

Matchups We Hate:

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears - I liked Jay a lot last week but I don’t like him at all this week. The Rams allow the second-fewest points to QBs. They have a fantastic defensive line that should put pressure on Cutler all day. It’s going to be a struggle and I’d avoid Cutler if you can.

Jeremy Langford, RB, Bears - Much like Cutler, I liked Langford last week and I thought he played really well. The Rams are a much, much tougher opponent. He should see a decent number of touches once again but I see him merely as a low-end RB2 this week.

Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears - This is one of the few weeks where I am more open to benching Bennett. The Rams have allowed just one touchdown to a tight end this season. Bennett has averaged almost 10 targets a game since Cutler’s return from injury. That is enough that he remains in my top ten regardless of the matchup, but his ceiling is limited.

Notable Players:

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears - As stated with other Bears, the Rams present a tough matchup for Jeffery. However I’m much more optimistic that Jeffery is talented enough to have a good game regardless. The Rams haven’t faced too many top WRs this season but they allowed 99 and 108 yards to Larry Fitzgerald and Antonio Brown. Jeffery remains in my top ten.

 

Saints @ Redskins - Sunday 11/15 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins - Yep, I’m saying it--I LOVE Cousins this week. The matchup is just too good, as the Saints have looked that bad. Desean Jackson looks healthier this week and Jordan Reed will play better. It’s all pointing towards a really good game for Cousins. I actually have him in my top ten this week. It feels good to be bold!

Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins - Reed was saved by a last-minute garbage time score last week. Otherwise it was a really bad game with 18 yards on three receptions. This week should be much better. The Saints allow the second-most points to tight ends, including a monster game by Delanie Walker last week. Reed probably won’t go that big but he should have a really strong day. Get him in your lineups.

Desean Jackson, WR, Redskins - If I like Cousins as much as I do, it makes sense that I will like his receivers too. I think DJax is still easily the best receiver on this team. If he is going to be relevant this season, this is the game where things need to happen. Love is a relative term here because he has barely played all season, but I’m intrigued enough to have him as a low-end WR2.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints - Brees has come on strong the last two weeks with over 30 points in each of the last two games. I don’t need to tell you that he has to be in your lineup.

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints - Another obvious start. The Redskins started off strong vs the run but have now allowed over 150 rushing yards in four straight. That trend should continue.

Brandin Cooks & Willie Snead, WRs, Saints - The Redskins allow the ninth-most points to WRs and that will likely move even higher after this week. Brees should have no problem getting it to these two and they are comfortably in WR2 territory. However Snead is dealing with an injury this week and did not practice. If he is a game-time decision I’d move him down to flex territory. If he is limited or out, that will help Cooks even more.

Matchups We Hate:

Ben Watson, TE, Saints - If there is one position the Redskins have been able to contain its tight end. They have only given up one TE touchdown on the season and are allowing the sixth-fewest points. For a hit-or-miss guy like Watson, this looks like a week to avoid.

Notable Players:

Matt Jones, RB, Redskins - He is the starter but that hasn’t meant much. The Redskins will also likely be throwing a lot. Avoid Matt Jones this week even though the matchup itself isn’t too bad.

 

Dolphins @ Eagles - Sunday 11/15 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

Demarco Murray, RB, Eagles - The Dolphins allow the third-most points to opposing RBs. Murray has come on strong lately with at least 20 touches in the last four games while averaging just under 120 yards from scrimmage during that time. In this matchup he should easily be a top-ten back.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles - As far as #2 backs go, Mathews is one of the few fantasy-relevant ones out there. Despite right around 12 touches a game, Mathews has averaged 80 yards a game over his last six. In this matchup where the Eagles should run a lot and run well, he is as strong a play as he’ll ever be barring a takeover of the lead role. I can see him as a low-end RB2 this week.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins - The Eagles allow the third-most points to WRs. More interestingly for Landry, the Dolphins allow the second-most WR receptions per game. I was concerned about Landry’s lack of targets since Dan Campbell took over but he answered those concerns last week with 11 catches on 13 targets. He should be a high-end WR2 in PPR and still a solid WR2 in standard.

Matchups We Hate:

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins - You are still starting him but it will be an interesting and potentially rough matchup. The Eagles have only allowed two touchdowns to RBs all season, but Miller has six touchdowns over his last four games. On the negative side Miller has a mere 2.8 YPC over the last two games. Perhaps more troubling, he hasn’t had more than 12 carries in either of those games. Still, his fantasy production has been so good that I see him as an RB1 regardless.

Notable Players:

Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles - Bradford has rarely looked good this season., but there are some positives though. He has thrown for 270+ yards in four of the last five games, and he’s coming off a game with a 69% completion percentage and no interceptions. Still, over that five- game stretch Bradford has averaged an unimpressive 14 points per game. In this average matchup Bradford is an average play.

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles - I thought Matthews had a really nice game last week even before the 41-yard game-ending touchdown. I’m really hopeful that is a sign of things to come, but I’m not ready to commit just yet. I have him as a low-end WR2 / high-end flex this week.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins - Tannehill has had a similar albeit slightly better season than Bradford in many respects. While he has hit the 300-yard mark in each of the past three games he has no touchdowns and three turnovers. It seems like he is due for some positive regression but I’m not going to gamble on it. I have him at QB17.

Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins - Things swung back in Landry’s favor last week after Matthews saw 12 targets the week before. It was a reminder of who the top guy for the Dolphins is. That doesn’t change the fact that Matthews has had a nice breakout season. He’s a solid flex play here.

 

Browns @ Steelers - Sunday 11/15 @ 1 PM EST

Matchups We Love:

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Steelers - I think Williams was already a must-start, but this is the best matchup he'll see all season. Get him in your lineups.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers - There is definitely some concern without Ben Roethlisberger playing (although he still says he might play) but Brown should be just fine. Joe Haden is not playing close to the elite level he has played at in past years, meaning the Cleveland Browns have no one who can match up with the Pittsburgh Brown. Keep him in your lineups.

Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns - Barnidge had his first bad game in several weeks with Johnny Manziel at QB. It’s not yet clear who will start this week but Barnidge’s prospects are a lot better if it’s McCown. The matchup is still good enough that he is worth a start either way, as the Steelers give up the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs.

Matchups We Hate:

Duke Johnson, RB, Browns - I like Duke but he has had frustratingly little involvement in this offense. He has just two catches in each of the last two weeks despite averaging over 25 yards per those four catches. I have to think he gets more involved but it’s still a tough matchup. The Steelers have allowed just two touchdowns to RBs this season and neither were receiving TDs, which is where Duke excels. I’d avoid him this week but hope for more involvement.

Notable Players:

Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers - He did have a touchdown last week but he is now averaging just 42 yards over the last three games after a huge debut. Assuming Ben is out, I’d avoid Martavis. He’s too boom-or-bust and it’s not worth the gamble with a backup QB.

Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns - Benjamin has really slowed down with just 32 yards a game over his last three. I think that is mostly the result of a couple really tough matchups and Johnny Manziel. If McCown plays I think Benjamin returns to form this week. I’d flex him in that scenario, but if Manziel starts I wouldn’t consider starting Benjamin.

 

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