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All three of last week’s sells pitched poorly in their first start after the list was published, while the buys spun gems.
That probably means the exact opposite will happen this time around, so plan accordingly. Never forget that baseball is a fickle and cruel mistress.
Editor’s Note: to read about waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.
Starting Pitcher Buys for Week 10
Drew Hutchison, Toronto Jays
Touted by many as a breakout candidate coming into the season, Hutchison was a disaster in the early going. Through his first six starts, he had a putrid 7.47 ERA and a middling 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio. Fortunately for the scuffling Jays, he’s been much better lately. He’s back to whiffing about a batter per inning and has just four walks in his last five turns on the mound. His ERA hasn’t quite recovered yet thanks in large part to a strand rate that ranks sixth-lowest among qualified starters.
Hutch is available on the wire in just over half of Yahoo leagues. If you have to pry him away from another owner, he shouldn’t cost too much either.
Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
Buchholz’s 47 percent ownership rate is identical to Hutchison’s. That’s a bit surprising given that he’s been better across the board and turned in four straight excellent starts. The big bump in strikeouts appears to be legitimate and Buchholz is also allowing fewer free passes and homers. One gets the sense that fantasy owners are a bit reluctant to trust a pitcher whose performance has fluctuated wildly throughout his career. That’s understandable, but as Wayne Coyne once said, all we have is now.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
After signing Lester to a six-year, $150 million contract last winter, the Cubs probably hoped for better than an ERA just south of 4.00. Fantasy owners certainly did. Fortunately, most of the underlying numbers suggest that Lester’s pitched about as well as usual. The primary culprits for his slightly inflated ERA are a home run rate that’s essentially doubled from a year ago and a BABIP about 25 points above his career average.
Starting Pitcher Sells for Week 10
Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
Since appearing on this list a few weeks ago, Wacha’s strikeout rate has improved. However, it still sits at just 6.01 per nine innings. BABIP and strand rate regression haven’t caught up with him yet, though he did suffer his first loss of the season last weekend. Make no mistake: Wacha is a quality pitcher. But the combination of low strikeouts, likely regression on those sparkling ERA and WHIP marks, and the specter of a six-man rotation in St. Louis make him a classic sell-high candidate.
Nate Karns, Tampa Rays
Karns has enjoyed some success thus far in his rookie season, with a 3.63 ERA and an 8.13 K/9. He posted excellent strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career, so that comes as no surprise. Unfortunately for Karns and the Rays, he’s also allowing a fair amount of homers and walks. These haven’t come back to bite him to this point due to a crazy-low .227 BABIP. When that number inevitably rises, Karns will cease to be worth a spot on your roster. Find a taker before that happens.
Mike Bolsinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have virtually unlimited money and, after poaching Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi from their small market teams last winter, an excellent front office to spend it. Thanks to season-ending injuries to both Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy, however, they’ve had to turn to this organizational soldier to eat innings.
So far he’s exceeded anyone’s wildest expectations. Even after allowing four runs in his last start, Bolsinger boasts a tidy 1.98 ERA, and his 3.37 FIP suggests he might have a bit of staying power. The usual luck indicators are flashing red, though, and Bolsinger’s stuff simply isn’t impressive. He’s got two starts this week, one at Petco Park, so you might be able to wring a little more value out of him as a member of your roster. After that, though, the best move is probably to get out.
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