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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part two of our Week 1 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the second half of the Week 1 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Bills @ Ravens - Sunday 9/11 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Tyrod Taylor, QB, BUF
Tyrod Taylor begins his second year as the Bills starting QB, against the team he left to get this opportunity. An extra motivated Taylor complete with a healthy repertoire of weapons spells trouble for even the stingiest of defenses. Taylor has improved on his passing over the middle of the field this offseason, which was his only real weakness last season. He will be an excellent play this week.
Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF
Tyrod Taylor's number one option in Sammy Watkins always has the potential to pop off when he's healthy, and this game will be no exception. He will be looked to early and often, and will use his speed to get behind the defense for one or two long gains. While Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright are no slouches, Watkins has the talent to beat any corner in the league.
Matchups We Hate:
Mike Wallace, WR, BAL
Wallace was brought in to fill the outside role that was left vacant when Torrey Smith left for the 49ers last season. The Bills boast one of the top cornerback duos in the league with Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby, who were both rated in the top-20 cornerbacks in the league by ProFootballFocus. Whoever covers Wallace will be able to keep up with his straightaway speed, limiting him in his first matchup as a Raven.
Notable Players:
LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF
LeSean McCoy is fully healthy coming into this season. When he was healthy last season, he flashed that game-breaking ability he had in his prime Philadelphia days. He will get his rushing and receiving yards, but this is a Ravens defense that was above average against the run last season. McCoy may have trouble finding holes, but should make up for things in the receiving game.
Kamar Aiken, WR, BAL
Kamar Aiken is the third receiver in this offense on their depth charts, meaning he will avoid the coverage of both the Bills top CBs. If he covers the intermediate routes, he will find plenty of opportunities to get open for Joe Flacco. The Bills lost Nigel Bradham in the offseason, and linebacker Jerry Hughes will need to help rush the passer with Marcell Dareus out. Opportunities will come for Aiken.
Bengals @ Jets - Sunday 9/11 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Giovani Bernard, RB, CIN
The New York Jets had one of the top rushing defenses in the league last season, and the script figures to be the same in 2016. One of the premier pass catching backs in the league should have a bigger role in the receiving game this season after the Bengals let go of Mohamad Sanu and Marvin Jones in the offseason. He is a legit RB2 in PPR formats this week.
Matt Forte, RB, NYJ
Chan Gailey has always found ways to make good use of his pass catching RBs; from back in his Bills days with C.J. Spiller up to last season where his style of play calling led Bilal Powell catching a career high 47 passes for 388 yards, both career highs. Now with all-pro RB Matt Forte at the helm, Gailey will have an even more dangerous weapon in his offense he can deploy. Forte should have a good week against a solid defense.
Eric Decker, WR, NYJ
Mr. Consistency last season will keep things going in Week 1 this season. Decker could be the best number two receiver in the league, and Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to throw his way. Last season Decker saw a league-high 28 red-zone targets, five more than the next closest player. In an offense that figures to pass more than it runs, Decker makes a great option this week even against a stingy Bengals D.
Matchups We Hate:
Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN
For all of the reasons we love Giovani Bernard this week, we don’t like Jeremy Hill. Hill is a ground and pound runner, going against one of the toughest rushing defenses in the league. Most of if not all of the targets will go to Bernard, so Hill will end up being very TD dependent in this game. He was drafted highly in drafts and expects to be good this season, just keep your expectations in check Week 1.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, NYJ
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been prone to turning the ball over throughout his NFL career, throwing 15 INTs last season. The Bengals secondary has some solid players including CB Adam Jones, and had a +11 turnover ratio last season, third in the league. While Fitz has a good chance to throw for two or three TDs, he will just as likely throw two or three INTs. Go with a different option if you can at QB.
Notable Players:
A.J. Green, WR, CIN
It has been reported that Derrelle Revis will not shadow A.J. Green during the Jets game, but one would figure he would spend most of his time on the most talented offensive player the Bengals have. While Revis isn’t the player he once was, he is still the best CB on the Jets roster. Green will have opportunities in this game to get big chunks of yards. Dalton will look his way plenty during Week 1 with Sanu and Jones now gone.
Brandon Marshall, WR, NYJ
As mentioned above, the Bengals have a solid secondary. Brandon Marshall is coming off the best season of his career at age-32, and his style of play suggests he could keep it going a few more seasons. Marshall will be locked in as a WR1 this week, but I could see Decker getting more of the action due to his ability to make quicker cuts and get open to score in the redzone.
Browns @ Eagles - Sunday 9/11 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Corey Coleman, WR, CLE
Someone in this Browns offense will need to step up and catch passes. In steps first-round draft pick Corey Coleman. Coleman stands at 5’11”, 185 lbs. and used his explosive quickness to get open at Baylor. He was the highest rated rookie receiver according to ProFootballFocus, and got drafted by a team in need of a playmaker. Terrelle Pryor could also fill this role, but I believe Coleman will be the one with the bigger game in Week 1.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE
The power back in the Browns offense will figure to get most of the rushing attempts during Week 1. He is up against the worst rushing defense in the league last season, in what figures to be a closely contested affair. With the Browns wanting to control the ball and the clock, Crowell will have a good chance to put up decent numbers on volume alone. Duke Johnson is the primary pass catcher, but this game should be more rush-oriented for the Browns.
Matchups We Hate:
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
Zach Erta had finally gained a rapport with Sam Bradford towards the end of last season, leading him to once again be considered a sleeper at the TE position. With the departure of Bradford, out went his high fantasy hopes also. His value takes a hit with Carson Wentz at the helm, as does the entire Eagles offense until he learns the pro game. The Browns were in the middle of the pack in stopping TEs last season, and have a good chance to keep the passing game in check if they can get pressure on Wentz. Ertz and the whole offense may have a hard time in this one.
Notable Players:
Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI
The QB situation in Philidelphia scares me just as much as you guys, trust me. However, this offense is going to need to go through someone. Jordan Matthews dealt with a bone bruise in his knee, causing him to miss the entire preseason as the Eagles are slow in bringing their top WR option back. Matthews should see plenty of chances Week 1 as Carson Wentz learns the pro game the hard way. When he throws, he will look towards his slot man and best receiver in Matthews.
Duke Johnson, RB, CLE
The primary pass-catching back for the Browns should be able to find holes in this matchup with the Eagles. The worst rushing defense in the NFL last season won’t be able to stop the combination of Crowell and Johnson, who should be able to rip off some nice gains in this one. Johnson will be a RB2/Flex play in PPR formats.
Lions @ Colts - Sunday 9/11 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Donte Moncrief, WR, IND
With Darius Slay set to cover burner T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief should be able to find ways to get open during Week 1. Andrew Luck enters this season full recovered from the injuries that plagued him last season, and should ready to sling it around the field again pain free. Luck and Moncrief developed some rapport during the end of last season, which figures to carry over into this season. Moncrief will establish himself as a prime target in this offense early.
Theo Riddick, RB, DET
Theo Riddick will have plenty of opportunities in this one while the Lions pass to keep up with the Colts offense. Riddick caught 80 passes last season, and just had his contract extended three years by the Lions. He figures to play a big role in this offense in 2016. Matt Stafford has plenty of options to throw to, but clearly loves Riddick out of the backfield. He will be a solid option in PPR formats this week.
Marvin Jones, WR, DET
The Colts top defensive back, Vontae Davis, will be covering WR1 Golden Tate on the opposite side of the field, while newcomer Marvin Jones receives more of the action in Week 1. Jones was brought over from Cincinnati, and immediately made a good impression on the offense. While it will take multiple players to make up for the production of the departured Calvin Johnson, Jones will be able to put a significant dent in making up those numbers. He figures to see a high number of passes his was this season.
Matchups We Hate:
Really no one in this matchup I don’t like. Should be a good offensive showdown.
Notable Players:
Frank Gore, RB, IND
Frank Gore is entering his age-33 season, and is still going strong in his 12th season in the league. Gore had a career low YPC last season (3.7) but that issue was more the fault of a banged up offensive line than Gore’s ability. While the age will inevitably catch up with Gore at some point, until he shows signs of it you shouldn’t assume he’ll slow down. Gore should have a good matchup this week against a physical defense.
Golden Tate, WR, IND
Golden Tate enters his first season as the Lions number one WR, only to draw CB Vontae Davis in Week 1. Davis is one of the btter corners in the league, but Tate uses his physicality to help him beat defenders. Marvin Jones should be able to help pull coverage away, so Tate should still be in line for some big chunk plays.
Giants @ Cowboys - Sunday 9/11 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Ezekiel Elliot, RB, DAL
The Cowboys and Giants both have mediocre at best rushing defenses. Last season both teams ranked in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed per game. The Cowboys will look to their lead back Ezekiel Elliot to lead the way offensively with Tony Romo gone and rookie Dak Prescott at the helm. Elliot will explode this week, making those who took the chance on him at draft day happy for Week 1.
Rashad Jennings, RB, NYG
When given the lead back role towards the end of last season, Jennings was able to shine. Heading into this season, word out of camp is they figure to do the same thing again this season with him, meaning he could pay huge dividends for fantasy owners this season. Against a middling rushing defense, Jennings should be able to carve out some holes and gain a good amount of yardage in this one.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, NYG
After lighting up the Cowboys during his rookie season, the Cowboys focused in on him last season and held Beckham to nine catches for 79 yards over two games. Even with those outings, he went on to out-do his impressive rookie year numbers across the board. In only his third year, we haven’t seen the best of ODB yet. Against this secondary that has its weaknesses, Beckham will have a huge day.
Matchups We Hate:
Terrance Williams, WR, DAL
Terrance Williams already has to compete with Dez Byrant for targets, now he has to do this with an inexperienced rookie at QB? He wont get many opporunities to make plays, since he will likely target his WR1 and solid pass-catching TE Jason Witten on most plays. Prescott looked good in the preseason, but was only making one read then throwing or rushing. Only one receiver has the potential for a good day, and that’s Bryant. Williams will be very mediocre in this one.
Notable Players:
Dez Bryant, WR, DAL
Dez Bryant had injuries most of last season, and when he played he struggled without Tony Romo, averaging only 45 yards per game. Prescott looked good in the preseason, but so have many who go on to fail during regular season action. Bryant should be Prescott’s first read more often than not, so its possible Bryant has a good game. However, it is a risk given his QB play.
Eli Manning, QB, NYG
Eli Manning has an excellent chance this season to have a career year. With Sterling Shepard now in as the WR2, and an established RB set in Rashad Jennings, this offense has tons of potential. Last season, the Cowboys held Manning to 55% passing over two games with no TDs. He will need to figure out the Cowboys attack to find success in this one, but given his weapons he has a good shot at a nice game.
Patriots @ Cardinals - Sunday 9/11 @ 8:30 PM EST
Matchups We Love:
Martellus Bennett, TE, NE
With Rob Gronkowski out of the game, Martellus Bennett will receive the majority of the action as the TE1. Even with Tom Brady out, Bennett can have a good game with Jimmy Garrapollo given the nature of Bill Belichek’s play calling. The Cardinals were in the bottom half of the league in fanatsy points given up to TEs last season, so Bennett could be in line for a nice game Week 1.
John Brown, WR, ARI
With Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd in to take some of the more difficult coverages away, John Brown should have more freedom to run intermediate routes, while stretching the field from time to time. The Patriots have one of the top secondary’s in the league, but the trio of Fitz-Floyd-Brown is too difficult for most defenses to stop on any given Sunday. I like Brown the best of the three to have a standout week.
Matchups We Hate:
Julian Edelman, WR, NE
Julian Edelman has a lot of important things going against him this week. Not only is he without his hall of fame QB Tom Brady, he will be covered by arguably the games top CB, Patrick Peterson. The combination of those two has expectation levels for Edelman during Week 1 low. This could be a game for New England dominated by their pass-catching RBs and their TE Martellus Bennett. Edelman will have a tough time managing things during this game.
Carson Palmer, QB, ARI
Carson Palmer, as mentioned above, gets to face one of the top secondary’s in the league on Sunday. The Patriots defense as a whole is much improved over a few seasons ago, and will cause some fits for Palmer. Palmer will have some success passing, but for one of the top QBs off the board in drafts he could have a disappointing outing Week 1 even with all of the weapons he has.
Notable Players:
David Johnson, RB, ARI
It will be interesting to see if David Johnson can carry over the immense success he had at the end of last season when he took the league by storm. He is going up against a stingy rushing defense, who are also missing Rob Ninkovich for this one. Johnson is effective as both a rusher and receiver, so look for him to make impacts in both of those areas. They will need all they can get from Johnson to take over this game.
The two Monday games, Redskins vs. Steelers and Rams @ 49ers will be covered in a final piece to be released shortly. Until then, good luck this week fantasy owners!
