Week 1 IDP Fantasy Football Rankings

It’s officially that time for you to set your lineups for Week 1 of the 2021 football season. We are done with drafts and big picture thinking, and we are now forced to dive into the weeds of weekly contests. That means we must look more closely at individual matchups on a weekly basis, knowing when a particularly tough opponent may mean you should sit a player you might otherwise start.

While the strength of opponents matters every week, we should give you a fair warning that “strength of schedule” is notoriously hard to predict this early in the year. For a great example of this, we need to look no further than last year's 49ers defense. Going into 2020, most analysts projected the 49ers to be a very tough matchup for players like DeAndre Hopkins, Saquon Barkley, and Russell Wilson early in the season. Unfortunately, once the injury bug hit and several defenders disappointed, the 49ers' defense didn't pose the same weekly threat to opponents that we feared they would. In short, early predictions and fantasy projections were way off on the 49ers and how they would impact your fantasy starters.

We mention how difficult it can be to predict the play of an entire unit/opponent at the outset of any given year because the strength of opponents will always factor into weekly fantasy projections. You cannot forecast the difference between players like Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliott this week without considering their opponents, but you can’t give the strength of their opponents too much weight in Week 1, either. Anyways, now that we have covered just how hard and futile it is to predict Week 1 fantasy production based on matchups, let’s predict Week 1 IDP production based on matchups! Should be easy, right?

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Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Linemen for Week 1

DL Streamer of the Week: Denver Broncos Pass Rushers

Four of the Giants' five starters on this season’s offensive line earned negative pass-blocking grades from Pro Football Focus last year. Those four blockers were also part of a Giants unit that allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL in 2020. What’s worse, Daniel Jones has given up an average of 3.07 sacks and 1.07 fumbles per game in his two years as a starter. For that keeping score, that means the Giants offensive line and quarterback were both prone to giving up big plays last year.

Enter Denver pass-rushers Bradley Chubb and Von Miller, both of whom are massively discounted IDP assets for multiple reasons. Chief amongst the concerns about these pass rushers are the fact Miller has visibly lost a step, while Chubb has struggled with both injuries and off-field issues. These problems shouldn’t play too much of a factor against the Giants, however, as the matchup is simply too good not to bear some fruit. Expect one or both of them to steal a strip-sack from Jones this week, with Chubb the safer bet to do so.

Premium DL Matchup of the Week: Danielle Hunter v. the Cincinnati Bengals

Quinton Spain and Jonah Williams (the men who make up the left side of the Bengals’ offensive line) have allowed 69 total pressures over their past 39 games combined. Both of those players are also coming off of injury impacted campaigns, as is their quarterback.

With just one pass attempt this pre-season, there are serious questions about how mobile and sharp Joe Burrow will be to start the season. There are also questions about how well his line will keep him clean. That combination of problems spells opportunity for a stud like Hunter, who is reportedly healthy and ready to rejoin the ranks of elite NFL edge rushers. One of the best pass rushers in the league going against weak blocking and a rusty QB, who admittedly favors his surgically repaired knee, typically equals fantasy gold.

DL Fade of the Week: Za’Darius Smith, Green Bay Packers

Smith missed most of the Packers’ on-field work this summer due to a nagging back injury, and he didn’t start doing individual drills until this week. While it’s good he finally suited up this Monday, it’s worrisome when Matt LaFleur calls Smith’s injury “concerning” and says it could “potentially” keep the edge rusher out of Week 1.

Even if Smith suits up, expect the Packers to manage his snaps and try to keep him healthy for the full 17-game season. When Smith does see the field, don’t expect him to have an easy matchup, either. The Saints return an offensive line that gave up just 29 sacks in 2020.

Top-30 Fantasy Linebackers for Week 1

LB Streamer of the Week: Troy Reeder, Los Angeles Rams

If the Bears can come close to fulfilling their desired game plan this week, which is a heavy dose of David Montgomery and just a little Andy Dalton, then the Rams’ linebackers should see a lot of action. It also helps that the Bears are starting a backup left tackle, plus a center and a right tackle who earned poor run blocking grades from Pro Football Focus in 2020. That line, plus an immobile Andy Dalton, should provide everyone in the Rams’ front-seven with a prime Week 1 matchup.

Reeder, in particular, stands to outperform his ADP this week, manning a linebacker position that has allowed multiple tacklers (including Reeder himself) to put up starter-level fantasy output on the regular. Against a run-oriented offense with a mediocre offensive line, tackle-heavy assets like Reeder tend to succeed. Remember that Reeder secured double-digit tackles in six of the nine games he started last year.

LB Fade of the Week: Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys

Many of our readers already know that Smith is a season-long fade for us, and his recent decline in roster rate (dropped in 30% of IDP leagues) indicates many IDP managers are fading him as well. Still, Smith remains the 19th most rostered LB in IDP leagues right now, so there are still a lot of managers who need to know about his bad matchup this week.

Based on his pre-season usage, Smith won't play a lot in Dallas' nickel or dime packages (which are packages typically used when offenses field three or more receivers) this year. That is a problem since the Buccaneers used three or more receivers on 72% of their offensive snaps last season. Given the Bucs ' current personnel, their offensive tendencies shouldn't change this year, and the Cowboys' response should be to run lots of nickel with Smith on the bench.

Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Backs for Week 1

DB Streamer of the Week: A.J. Terrell, Atlanta Falcons

If you play in a deeper IDP league or one that requires starting corners, Terrell is a solid choice this week. While his floor as a mid-tier cornerback is too low to consider him amongst the first 20 DBs on this list, he is a reliable tackler, and his new head coach utilized shadow coverage with the Titans six different times last season.

This week, Terrell should have a decent matchup against the Eagles, presuming DeVonta Smith is healthy and starts as expected. The Eagles drafted Smith specifically to be a target monster, and we shouldn’t be surprised if Terrell shadows the rookie all game. That could result in the Clemson corner seeing 10+ targets and a turnover if Jalen Hurts continues to be spotty with his ball placement. That’s elite potential for a fantasy CB.

DB Fade of the Week: Trevon Moehrig, Las Vegas Raiders

The best overall safety prospect in this past NFL Draft class, Moehrig carries high expectations with many IDP managers this year. Jeremy Chinn set unrealistic expectations for some, and Moehrig could be overvalued early in the season as a result.

While the TCU product has plenty of talent and should produce as an IDP asset, the Baltimore Ravens pose a tough first matchup for the rookie. The Ravens are traditionally the most run-heavy team in the NFL by a good amount, and that spells more opportunities for the Raiders’ box safety (Jonathan Abram) than it does their deep safety (Moehrig). With multiple injuries to their WR corps to start the year, expect Baltimore to go even more run-heavy than usual. Moehrig will get his opportunities, specifically against Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, but this matchup lacks the volume and floor you want from a starting DB in a week where most defenders are still healthy.

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