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The Washington Nationals did not provide much to get excited about going into the 2024 MLB season. Projected to win fewer than 70 games by most outlets, the Nats are in the early stages of a rebuild. A few young guys on the MLB roster have shown promise, while much of their future remains at various levels of the minor leagues.
However, every team has something to offer fantasy baseball managers who know where to look. CJ Abrams is the most obvious bright spot, projected for top-25 output in many preseason rankings. Although he is on the shelf with an MCL sprain at the time of this article, Lane Thomas can provide five-tool output when he returns and remains a solid fantasy outfielder.
The cliff is steep from there, with most of the remaining Nats hitters being ranked outside the top-300 players to start the 2024 season. But preseason projections are merely an informed guess, and multiple Nats hitters other than Abrams and Thomas have come on strong in the past few weeks. Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) takes a detailed look at which surging bats can provide season-long value and which are more likely to regress to their original, low expectations.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Candidates
For one reason or another, these hitters have the potential to be season-long contributors for fantasy baseball managers. Managers with an open roster spot should pick them up for an audition, particularly in deep leagues.
Jacob Young (OF) - 25% Owned
Young is one of the few bright spots a the major league level for the Nationals. At 24 years of age, Young still has time to realize further potential. Perhaps the most exciting part of Young's profile is an eye-popping 12 SBs in only 70 PA. Few players in MLB are stealing bags at that clip, let alone a player who is available in well over half of leagues. This guy is over here beating out sacrifice bunts for hits. He can run.
Nationals vs Dodgers
What was suppose to be a sac bunt, Davey Martinez challenged and won so Jacob Young is safe at 1st and the nationals go up. Nationals 1-0 Dodgers.#jacobyoung | #NATITUDE pic.twitter.com/QLRn6jzWIZ
— Washington Nationals Game Updates (@WSHNatsUpdates) April 23, 2024
It is important to be clear about expectations. Young is not going to hit double-digit home runs. He profiles much like Esteury Ruiz (before his recent playing time mishaps); Young will garner managers bags and runs. Although batting ninth in the Nats lineup seems like a barrier, Young has already produced 16 runs on the year, good for a top-50 rank across MLB at this time.
Nearly every name around him in those rankings has over 100 PA on the year. With unbelievable 1.4% BB% and 14.3% K%, Young will put the ball in play. He has the speed to reach 1B, even on weak contact, and then will run from there. Batting ninth means Abrams comes up next to knock him in once Young has stolen second base. Managers in any league looking for a combination of runs and bags should nab Young, and those with daily adds can pick him up and drop him as needed to supplement those stats.
Jesse Winker (OF) - 25% Owned
Winker finds himself embedded in the top three spots of the Nats lineup, batting second or third in nearly every game this year, including against LHP. Even on what might be the worst team in baseball, the bedrock No. 3 hitter deserves further attention given the opportunities in front of him. Winker is a bit of a known commodity who can hit for average with a bit of upside in terms of power. He pieced together a particularly nice season in 2021 in Cincinnati, batting .305 with 24 HRs. Recapturing that output would make him valuable in any fantasy baseball format.
WSH @ MIA
April 27, 2024Jesse Winker (3) Grand Slam
EV: 104.5 MPH
Launch Angle: 34°
Distance: 391'Pitcher: Edward Cabrera, 83.9mph Curveball [2455 RPM]
5th Inning pic.twitter.com/XLsk9IQiz9— Nationals Homers (@Nats_HRs) April 28, 2024
So far in 2024, Winker appears closer rather than further to 2021 than he has in the last couple of years, perhaps due to that opportunity as the mainstay third hitter in the Nats lineup. He is batting .277 with three HRs so far, roughly on pace for 15-20 HRs across the MLB regular season.
With Young batting ninth and Abrams batting leadoff, Winker has significant RBI opportunity as well. He has always shown solid plate discipline and is continuing that this year with a 13.2% BB%, good for a top-25 ranking in that telling statistic. Winker is worth a pickup in 12-team leagues and deserves a close eye in smaller leagues for a sneaky OF add. No. 3 hitters with this low of ownership are hard to come by, and now is the time to scoop Winker while he still flies under the radar.
Fantasy Baseball Players Better Left on the Waiver Wire
In deep leagues, these guys might fill a niche, but managers in most leagues can keep an eye on these guys from the waiver wire or ignore them altogether for fantasy purposes.
Keibert Ruiz (C) - 35% Owned
Adley Rutschman, J.T. Realmuto, and Will Smith clearly represent the podium of fantasy baseball catchers. From there, names like Cal Raleigh and Salvador Perez exist amongst five or six guys who can be argued as the second tier. Beyond that, the drop-off is fairly steep, leaving managers who left catcher toward the end of their draft to pick from some uninspiring names, one of those being Ruiz.
Ruiz did play 136 games last year, highlighted by 18 HRs, which was good for sixth amongst catchers in 2023. He has two home runs in 2024 so far despite a stint on the IL, and perhaps Ruiz can be useful as a single-category contributor for those desperate for any contribution from the catcher position.
But the ceiling is likely around 20 HRs, and he is currently holding an atrocious .152 batting average. Even with the .139 BABIP suggesting he'll improve and likely eclipse the .200 mark for average, Ruiz is best left as a free agent outside of deep leagues with no other catcher options.
Luis García Jr. (2B) - 15% Owned
If there was a "middle" category in this article, it would be for García. His stats pull him in a few different directions, making a season-long outlook a bit tough to piece together. He deserves close attention from fantasy managers, even if not picking him up right now.
García can hit the cover off the ball, currently holding a 48.5% hard-hit%, good for a top-50 mark across MLB. His plate discipline is also decent, holding a top-100 K% at 18.4%. He uses most of that discipline to hit, embodied by a relatively low 5.7% BB%.
The concern is that less than half of those hard hits have actually left the infield. García's spray chart is an anomaly. How can 13 out of 24 hits on the year stay in the infield? Watching the tape reveals that most of these hits are rockets that bounce off an infielder's glove, allowing García time to reach first base safely.
García is young, and perhaps a slight launch angle adjustment would be enough to translate to a big uptick in power. However, he has also been sitting against LHP, somewhat limiting his opportunities. Keep an eye on him to see if the power numbers trend up, but managers in 12-team or smaller leagues are best served with a watch-and-wait approach with García.
Nick Senzel (3B/OF) - 10% Owned
Senzel holds a pedestrian 6.8% BB% and ominous 25.0% K% backed up by an abysmal 13.5% SwStr%. That is the profile of a swing-and-miss hitter who lacks plate discipline. However, it must be noted that this is over quite a small sample size due to him starting the season on the IL.
Senzel had three seasons in Cincinnati in which he eclipsed 100 games played, with his highest HR total being 13 in any of those seasons. Senzel is certainly on pace to easily eclipse that and likely has a well-defined starting role. Managers in very deep and/or NL-only leagues could do worse at 3B; however, his poor average, lack of running, and mediocre surrounding cast limit his upside in most leagues.
Joey Meneses (1B) - 5% Owned
Volume is always worth a consideration, and Meneses logged 611 PA in 2023 with 154 games started. The 1B position remains his in 2024. Unfortunately, he has shown his yearly power cap is no higher than 15 HRs and he has yet to hit a home run in 2024. He does not steal any bases. Meneses batting cleanup for the Nats is representative of how devoid of power their lineup is. Even at that position in the batting order, Meneses can safely be left on the waiver wire in all but the deepest NL-only leagues.
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