RADIO
We're just a few days removed from the 2022 edition of the NBA Draft. As is always the case, just a couple of picks were virtual locks with the rest of the picks going left and right and handing us more than a few surprises. That is without even entering the trade realm and the whispers popping up all around the league boasting star-player names such as Kyrie Irving and Dejounte Murray.
All of Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith retained their expected no. 1-2-3 spots, but the draft became an (also expected) crapshoot starting with Sacramento's number 4 selection as the Kings pivoted from drafting another guard (Jaden Ivey) and instead opted to draft a forward (Keegan Murray). That was only the start. The excitement only grew inside of us all watching, but we weren't the only ones glued to the TV. Who else, you say? Vets all around the Association trying to come up with a clear vision of where they'll fit into their teams' rotation factoring in the freshly drafted rookies.
With the draft in the rearview mirror and free agency around the corner, let's take a look at a few veteran players who can be considered winners after the moves that happened on the night of the draft. This is mostly focused on fantasy basketball, but there might be a few takeaways that look at the broader picture.
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Kevin Huerter, SG/SF - Atlanta Hawks
A few hours after Adam Silver kicked the draft off last Thursday, reports came out of left field about a potential trade between Atlanta and San Antonio involving two superstar players in Dejounte Murray and John Collins. The asking price by the Spurs ultimately was too rich for the Hawks' blood and the ATL passed on the chance of pairing Trae Young with Murray to form an absolutely murderous backcourt.
The clear winner of it all, to my eyes, was Kevin Huerter. Young would have retained (obviously) his PG1 role in Atlanta while Murray would have come to slot into the SG1 position while partnering with Trae forming a fantastic duo of shooting/playmaking guards. Huerter found his way to the starting lineup in 60 of his 74 games played last season, a career-high mark in terms of started games. Huerter's been on a steady 29-to-31-MPG diet for three years now with usage rates around 17% more often than not. Murray would have instantly thrown him into the Hawks' second unit.
There is a possibility being part of that second unit could/would benefit Huerter as he wouldn't be fighting with Trae for shots, but the bulky playing time is also helping him get to his 0.80 FP/min on average he's posted in his four-year career. Huerter dodged a bullet here but he should stay on his toes and play to his best levels when the ball gets rolling if he doesn't want to entirely convince the Hawks about moving on from him and pursuing other more appealing options such as Dejounte Murray.
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG - San Antonio
Of course, speaking of that Atlanta-San Antonio deal, the true winner for fantasy purposes has to be the very own Murray. Of course, from his point of view and a real-world perspective, Murray would have loved to become a Hawk and join a much better team than the Spurs currently are. It's not that the Hawks have dominated the NBA or anything, but you can't compare the likes of Trae, Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, and Bogdan Bogdanovic with the still-young-and-growing players in SAS.
Had Murray joined Atlanta though, odds are that he would have lost touches and seen a downtick in usage rate. Other than in his rookie season (low 16.2%), Murray has logged USG% figures of 23.4% and 27.3% in the past two years which are two of the top-5 usage rates among Spurs players in the past three campaigns – and in fact, two of the top-3 among starters with the other one belonging to DeMar DeRozan in the 2021 season. Atlanta's Trae Young has posted USG% marks above 25% in all four seasons in ATL while raising the bar up to 33% and 34.4% figures in the last two years. Someone had to give, is what I'm saying.
Had Murray gotten traded to either New York or Washington, he would have fallen in similar situations with RJ Barrett/Julius Randle and Bradley Beal/Kristaps Porzingis eating from his touch-pie respectively. So far, so good for Murray and his fantasy GMs next season – as long as he remains in San Antonio, I mean – as he will retain a bona fide number 1 role among Spurs players and be the light that guides the team and puts on the bulkiest minute/usage/counting-stat numbers in 2023.
Isaiah Stewart, PF/C & Kelly Olynyk, PF/C - Detroit Pistons
The Pistons entered the draft week with Jerami Grant on the roster and – barring Cade Cunningham – the best/franchise player at least for the time being. Welp, not anymore. Detroit traded Grant to Portland, got rid of him just months after landing him as a free agent, and moved on to other endeavors. That was basically drafting the number 5 overall pick and legit guard prospect Jaden Ivey after Sacramento was scared off Ivey's comments and opted to go with wing Keegan Murray instead with the no. 4 pick.
Now, I have to say that I'm writing this on the Saturday following Thursday's event. What I'm saying is that as of now, both Stewie and Olynyk have dodged the bullet of facing competition from a rookie such as Murray, Jeremy Sochan, or Ousmane Dieng just to name a few wings/bigs with upside getting drafted inside the top-10. Of course, this is just the first move in the Pistons' offseason and by the time we are one week into free agency, things might look very different. And on top of that, Detroit got to draft a big in Jalen Duren with the 13th-overall pick, so there's that too.
With the backcourt secured for the next decade, Detroit could very well pass on FA Jalen Brunson and focus on landing someone like, most probably, Deandre Ayton with a massive max offer in July. That would murder one of Olynyk or Stewart as Ayton would be the clear-cut C1 of the team. That said, odds are Detroit focuses on landing other type of player (a scoring wing, maybe?) instead of Ayton after landing Duren in the draft and probably deciding to develop the youngster on a cheap salary instead of paying big bucks for an established star in Ayton. For now, Stewart keeps his top-115 upside up while Olynyk sits at around a potential top-165 as a super-sub in Detroit's second unit.
Immanuel Quickley, PG/SG - New York Knicks
The Knicks completely bypassed the 2022 draft by way of trading their 11th-overall pick in exchange for more first-round picks in future drafts. Yes, they drafted Trevor Keels in the second round, but it's hard to see him having any sort of fantasy or real-life basketball next season, to say the least. It was pretty much the same last year with New York only drafting Quentin Grimes in the first round (acquired from LAC) but contrasting with the additions of Obi Toppin and IQ in the 2020 edition, though none of the two played fantastic basketball for most of the past two seasons.
That changed a bit for Obi and IQ at the end of 2022 when they started to get more and more chances if only because of the Knicks' precarious position. Quickley, while not your prototypical point guard, did enough to (almost) guarantee himself the starting gig in 2023 barring the Knicks getting Jaden Ivey in the draft. Of course, that was always a dream scenario that didn't come to fruition. The aftermath? New York looking to the future more than the present – for now, at least. In other words: at least until we reach free agency and Jalen Brunson/Tyus Jones/Kyrie Irving signs with the Knicks, IQ should be the PG1 playmaking on MSG next year.
Everything points toward the Knicks making a nonsensical (4-year/$115 million) offer to Brunson in July. With JB being clearly a better player than IQ in terms of his skill set, IQ would remain sitting on the bench next season. If no solution is found in free agency for the point guard position, IQ would (or at least should) start at the position. IQ went from an average 11-2-2 line as a rookie to a slightly better 11-3-3 one last year also going from an AST% of 16.2% to a much higher 24.5% in 2022. The growing pains are obvious and Quickley is more of an off-ball player than an on-ball playmaker, but for now, he's safe in terms of retaining/enlarging his role going forward.
De'Aaron Fox, PG & Davion Mitchell, PG/SG - Sacramento Kings
Outside of the obvious top-3, Jaden Ivey looked like the next-best player in the 2022 class through all of the pre-draft period. So much so, that there was a legitimate battle of offers from different teams (Knicks, Wizards,...) to trade up and draft Ivey with Sacramento's fourth pick out of fear of missing out on landing Ivey. Only to ultimately have the Kings straight passing on Purdue's guard in favor of wing/forward Keegan Murray. At the end of the day, it might have made sense for the Kings. Sacramento drafted Fox (PG) in 2017, then Tyrese Haliburton (PG) in 2020, and lastly Mitchell (PG) in last year's draft. See the trend?
With Fox having blossomed into a legit and immovable superstar and Davion Mitchell boasting serious defensive chops, what's the point in drafting another lead guard? I mean, Sacramento already had to move on from Haliburton (perhaps the better of their three recent draftees when all is said and done) last year flipping him from C Domantas Sabonis, so there was no way in hell they were going to make the same gamble/mistake taking Ivey here to... move from Fox or Mitchell before the next trade deadline? Nah.
Obviously, the clear beneficiaries here are both Fox and Mitchell as they won't have to deal with the competition that would have come from Ivey, who would be playing next to Cade Cunningham on Detroit's backcourt instead. Nothing changes in terms of the upside of the two Kings, as their situation hasn't improved nor worsened, but that's already a win, and a win's a win: Fox is still a top-50 player (top-25 guard) and Mitchell should improve from his top-115 overall 2022 season.
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