X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using SIERA to Identify Overachievers Worth Fading in 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Gerrit Cole - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Casey Wilson evaluates starting pitchers who could see negative ERA regression in 2024 fantasy baseball. based on last year's SIERA metric. These SP could be overvalued draft targets and sleepers.

With spring training rapidly approaching, it's time for part one of my two-part series on using SIERA to identify pitchers with an ERA that was not truly reflective of their overall effectiveness. SIERA attempts to quantify the skills that underpin a pitcher's ERA. It attempts to consider how specific skills (strikeouts, walks, ground balls) interact with each other to help pitchers limit runs. SIERA weighs these skills, moving up the skills of pitchers with high strikeout and/or ground ball and low walk rates.

Last year, my colleague and good friend Dan Palyo wrote this article. On that list were some notable names. The most notable were Alek Manoah, who had a -1.61 difference; Dylan Cease, who had a -1.28 difference; and Martin Perez, who had a -1.19 difference. This helped our members avoid these names in drafts, which ultimately, as we know now, were significant decisions.

Today, our goal will be to distinguish which players to buy into the numbers. We will focus only on the overachievers, the pitchers whose ERA was the lowest compared to their SIERA. I will warn you that I tend to trust the numbers and will likely avoid some big names on the list below.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Largest ERA Overachievers in 2023

We have an exciting mix of big-time names and easy fades from the list above. We will start our journey by breaking down some names that are being drafted in the top 75 of most drafts and work our way down to some less impactful decisions. Although making this list is a red flag, it does not mean every name listed above is not draftable.

 

Top of the Board (Top 75 ADP)

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

ADP: 11.7

RotoBaller Ranking: 13.0

We will start by bursting out of a cannon as the top two names on our list are the reigning Cy Young Award winners in their prospective leagues. Although Cole is at the bottom of the list, his SIERA was a whole point higher than his 2.63 ERA.

If not for his Cy Young Award last season, Cole would be on the short list of those being talked about regarding decline. His 27.0% K% was his lowest mark since 2018 and was 5.4% points lower than his 32.4% mark in 2022. The same goes for his 11.7% SwStr, 2.6% below his 2022 mark.

The biggest concern is the drop in his stuff. His fastball averaged 96.8 mph last season -- his lowest since 2018. His slider, his main out pitch, went from 44.2% Whiff% in 2022 to 32.9% Whiff% in 2023. His curveball was similar, decreasing from his 36.9% mark in 2022 to his 24.4% mark last season.

Cole's market value, the decrease in his stuff, and glaring differences in his ERA and SIERA make him an easy pass as the second pitcher coming off the board. I would expect to have zero shares of Cole this season.

Blake Snell, Free Agent

ADP: 56.0

RotoBaller Ranking: 52.0

Blake Snell, like Gerrit Cole, is our reigning Cy Young award winner, this time from the National League. Snell has a ton of question marks heading into 2024. The biggest one to note is where he will play. Without knowing a landing spot, we can only evaluate Snell from what he did last season.

When digging deeper into Snell, we note some very interesting things. First off is the walk rate. Snell posted a career-high 13.3% BB%. You rarely see a pitcher post under a 2.25 ERA with a 13.3% BB%. As our own Eric Cross notes, only 10 pitchers have done similar since 1916.

Second off is the innings. Snell has only thrown over 129.1 innings twice in his eight-year big league career. Interestingly enough, he won a Cy Young both times. He reached 180.0 innings last year while only reaching the seven-inning mark in three of his 32 starts.

The third most significant factor was the luck. We already noted the difference in his SIERA and ERA, but Snell also has some drastic numbers in other areas. His .256 BABIP was 0.51 points lower than his 2022 mark. His 86.7% LOB (left on base) mark was the best in baseball. A whole 6.3% point higher than the second best, which so happens to be Gerrit Cole and Kodai Senga.

Snell's strikeout numbers are elite. He finished last season with a 31.5% K% and a 15.3% SwStr%. His curveball, changeup, and slider had a Whiff over 45%, only one of baseball's two starters with three pitches above the 45% plateau.

With the amount of unknowns and market value for Snell at the current moment, I will pass on him and focus on getting my exposure in certain matchups during the season in DFS.

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

ADP: 60.0

RotoBaller Ranking: 66.0

Kodai Senga is in the complete opposite boat of the two arms listed above, and although appearing on this list, he remains one of my favorite arms to target at his current ADP.

Senga finished his rookie campaign with a 2.98 ERA, .206 BAA, 1.22 WHIP, 44.7% GB%, 29.1% K%, 12.5% SwStr%, and 11.1% BB%. He led all rookies in ERA and K% and only improved as the season progressed.

In the second half of the season, Senga posted a 2.58 ERA, .212 BAA, 1.15 WHIP, 42.8% GB%, and 28.6% K%. The most encouraging thing was the 9.6% BB% in the second half, a significant improvement from the 13.0% BB% he posted in the first half of the season.

His ghost fork remains one of the best pitches in baseball with a .110 BAA, .147 SLG, .195 wOBA, and a 59.5% Whiff%. His cutter is also an elite pitch with a 17-run value, and his four-seam fastball is serviceable but can touch triple digits.

Despite the difference in ERA and SIERA, Senga was one of baseball's best second-half pitchers and should be a player we target heavily in drafts.

 

Middle Rounds (100-200 ADP)

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

ADP: 103.7

RotoBaller Ranking: 134.0

Like Kodai Senga, I am not concerned about sophomore pitcher Tanner Bibee, who is coming off an exceptional rookie campaign. Bibee burst onto the scene with an eight strikeout and a 27% Whiff% outing in his big league debut, and he never looked back.

He tied with Senga for the best ERA for rookie pitchers with a 2.98 ERA. Bibee posted a 24.1% K%, 7.7% BB%, .228 BAA, and a 1.18 WHIP.

The only concern for Bibee is the amount of HRs given up last season, especially on his fastball. His 10% HR/FB was third-best in the league among qualified pitchers. His 36.8% GB% also proves he is due for some negative regression with the long ball in 2024.

Bibee should provide solid value next season and is a fine pick at his current ADP. The 103.7 ADP is a little overvalued, but Bibee is a young arm with much room to grow.

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 114.0

Rotoballer Ranking: 93.0

Interesting story about Sonny Gray. In my first-ever career college baseball game, we played Vanderbilt, and Sonny Gray was on the bump for them. Since then, I’ve rooted for him and have always loved how he competes and conducts himself.

That said, Gray is an easy cross-off this season and an arm I will have zero shares of.

Let’s start with the good. Gray has dominated the past two seasons, posting a 3.08 ERA in 2022 and a 2.79 ERA in 2023. He did this with a 24.3% K%, .225 BAA, and a 1.15 WHIP.

His sweeper is an elite pitch and one of the best in baseball. Gray throws it 20.4% of the time and does it with a ton of success. He didn’t allow an HR on this pitch last season and posted a .097 BAA, .118 SLG, and a 41.3% Whiff%. It’s a weapon that he will deploy often.

Now, let’s get to the bad. Gray was extremely lucky last season. His 0.39 HR/9 was historically low for a starting pitcher. This led the MLB by a wide margin. Next in line was Justin Steele, who posted a 0.73 HR/9. For comparison, in 2021, Gray posted a 1.26 HR/9 (albeit in Great American Ball Park), and in 2022, he posted a 0.83 HR/9.

Gray has been good at limiting the long ball in his career, but the home runs are due for some negative regression, and getting out of Minnesota may not be the best thing for him as his two most dominant seasons in the big leagues came in a Twins jersey.

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

ADP: 120.3

RotoBaller Ranking: 110.0

Verlander is so incredibly talented that I can’t say anything wrong here. He continues to impress year in and year out and put up monster seasons. He is an absolute workhorse that will eat up innings on your fantasy team and provide a solid floor.

His 21.5% K% was the lowest in his last six seasons in the big leagues, so there is some pause for concern. The thing with Verlander, though, is that he knows how to pitch.

There isn’t a stat for pitch ability and the ability to outsmart opponents with experience, but Verlander knows how to do just that. You can’t value that, and because of it, I will always endorse a pitcher like Verlander. The dude gets people out, and he’s been doing it at the big league level for the past 18 seasons.

Jordan Montgomery, Free Agent

ADP: 135.7

RotoBaller Ranking: 124.0

Montgomery is impossible to evaluate here until he finds a landing spot. He was incredible in the postseason for the Rangers and was a crucial cog in their World Series title. I expect that momentum to roll over into the 2024 season and Montgomery to be a force.

He was much better for the Rangers than the Cardinals. In 21 games with the Cardinals, Montgomery posted a 3.42 ERA, 21.2% K%, .250 BAA, and a 1.25 WHIP. After the trade to the Rangers, Montgomery had a 2.79 ERA, 21.6% K%, .240 BAA, and a 1.09 WHIP.

I'm buying into Montgomery taking a big step forward after bursting onto the big stage in the playoffs. Still, as said earlier, it is impossible to evaluate fully until we know where he will pitch in 2024.

 

The Rest of the Bunch (200+ ADP)

A few other names on this list are being taken outside the top 200 picks of drafts -- players like Wade Miley, Michael Wacha, Josiah Gray, and Bryce Elder. With players like this late in drafts, I am looking for guys who possess upside and who may have been a bit unlucky last season. It’s the opposite for them, and regression will eventually get to them.

J.P. France and Mike Clevinger are going undrafted, and rightfully so. Clevinger was a popular value DFS player late in the season last year, but that is his value, and he is not someone I want to be tied to in a season-long league.

Last but certainly not least is Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw recently signed a one-year deal to return to the Dodgers in 2024. He will be placed on the 60-day injured list to start the season and rehab his shoulder, which required surgery in November. We want to avoid Kershaw in redraft leagues, as there is no clear-cut date on exactly when he will return, but I don't mind the idea of taking some late fliers in best ball and hope we catch some 2022 form late in the season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS


Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF