X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 3 - Statcast for Batters

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. There is a relationship there, but it is not as clear-cut as you might think.

The hardest batted ball of the 2017 season was struck by Giancarlo Stanton. It was clocked at 122.2 mph but only recorded a single. Eric Hosmer's best hit traveled 118 mph (15th highest in the league), but he only received a ground out for the effort. It is possible to torch a baseball only to make an out. The best way to get a feel for how hard a given batter usually hits the ball is to look at his average exit velocity. The league average mark in 2017 was 91.9 mph, but that stat is of little value. Exit velocity on airborne balls (both flies and line drives) is all you need when evaluating a player's HR/FB rate, while ground ball exit velocity is the best indicator of a high BABIP on ground balls.

The two metrics should almost never intersect, but a lot of analysts ignore context and use overall average exit velocity (or its even worse approximation, Hard%) to evaluate HR/FB and BABIP. You really shouldn't do that unless you believe that Hosmer's grounder above had a chance of going over the fence. Baseball broadcasts will cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Am I evaluating a baseball player or trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles triangle? Let's simplify things a bit to see how these numbers can actually benefit our analysis.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How to Interpret Batted Ball Statistics

They do not do a good job of publicizing it, but LA is actually fairly simple to understand. Here is the batted ball type produced by the various degree measurements:

Batted Ball Type Launch Angle
Ground ball Less than 10 degrees
Line drive 10-25 degrees
Fly ball 25-50 degrees
Pop-up More than 50 degrees

Most batters want to live in the 10-50 degree range, as grounders rarely produce power while pop-ups rarely produce anything other than easy outs. Well-struck balls in this range of launch angles are the batted balls that fantasy owners are most interested in. A new stat called "Barrels" filters out everything else, allowing us to evaluate who is hitting the most of these high-value batted balls.

A Barrel is defined as "a ball with a combination of exit velocity and launch angle that averages at least a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage." It should be noted that the numbers above are only a minimum threshold, as Barrels produced an .835 batting average and 2.937 slugging in 2017. In this respect, the stat is like a Quality Start. It is possible to register a QS with an ERA of 4.50, but the actual average ERA of all MLB Quality Starts falls well below 4.50.

The range of EVs and LAs that combine to form Barrels is called the Barrel Zone. This means that higher EVs can compensate for less ideal LAs to produce the .500/1.500 minimum. At a minimum, it must have an EV of at least 98 mph and fall within the 10-50 degree LA range. We care about fantasy production, not the intricacies of a mathematical relationship. You don't need to worry about the math.

With this in mind, Aaron Judge led baseball in Barrels last year with 86. He was followed by Stanton (76), Khris Davis (65), and J.D. Martinez (60). This group passes the sniff test, as it seems like a collection of guys who consistently make high quality contact. Likewise, Billy Hamilton managed only two Barrels all year, living up to his reputation of weak contact. Still, we already knew this. What do Barrels add to the equation?

They become more instructive when you stop looking at them as a counting stat and start examining them as a rate stat. By taking the number of Barrels and dividing by the total number of Batted Ball Events (BBE), we get a percentage that tells us how frequently a player's batted balls are Barrels. Judge topped this list in 2017 with a 25.4% Brls/BBE figure, followed by Joey Gallo (21.7%), Martinez (19.5%), and Stanton (17.4%). Gallo didn't have the raw BBEs to crack the Barrels leaderboard (253 in all), but the rate stat suggests that he's an intriguing sleeper this year.

This data helped identify sleepers in every year of its existence. Chris Carter had an 18.7% Brls/BBE in limited 2015 playing time. He led the NL in homers the next year with 41, so he was a sleeper worth owning based on the prior year's Brls/BBE. Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez ranked eighth in the league with a 15.8% Brls/BBE in 2016, foreshadowing his ascension to the top of the catcher rankings after a strong 2017. Comparable names on the 2017 list include Matt Olson (16.3%, 7th), Matt Davidson (15.4%, ninth), and Randal Grichuk (14.9%, 11th).

Like BABIP, Brls/BBE also seems prone to random fluctuation. Giancarlo Stanton's amazing 2015 (he hit 27 bombs in 318 PAs) was fueled by a 32.5 percent Brls/BBE, over 10 points higher than the league's second best performance that year (Miguel Sano's 22.4 percent rate in limited time). A rate that high was almost certainly an outlier. Sure enough, he regressed to a still strong 17.3% Brls/BBE in 2016 before his 17.4% rate last season. This suggests that Judge won't be able to completely replicate his 2017 season, but he'll come pretty close.

 

Conclusion

Statcast is an interesting tool, but it's not yet enough to form the sole basis of your analysis. Exit velocity is one thing that goes into BABIP, but many other factors also play a part. Batted ball distribution is one of the most important among them, which we'll take a closer look at in Part 4!

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zack Wheeler9 mins ago

Records 10 Strikeouts
11 mins ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals17 mins ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Aroldis Chapman23 mins ago

Earns First Save Of The Season
Garrett Crochet31 mins ago

Works Eight Strong Innings
Tutu Atwell34 mins ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Rafael Devers39 mins ago

Finally Delivers At The Plate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers40 mins ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Xavier Edwards50 mins ago

Collects Four Hits
Pete Alonso58 mins ago

Comes Up Clutch
Jackson Merrill3 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday3 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets3 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo3 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford3 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki3 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis3 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet3 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana3 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips3 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
Dean Wade4 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
George Springer4 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Trae Young4 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman4 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies4 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Joel Embiid4 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin4 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Freddy Peralta4 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Filip Chytil4 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Jackson Chourio4 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Declan Chisholm5 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Michael Harris II5 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Keaton Wallace5 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard5 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson5 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta5 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Paul Skenes5 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Cole Ragans5 hours ago

Fans 10 In No-Decision On Wednesday
Eeli Tolvanen5 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz5 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
6 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
6 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
7 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams7 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns9 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots9 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
9 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody9 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers9 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers11 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans11 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett11 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns12 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals12 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown12 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Pittsburgh Steelers12 hours ago

All Options On The Table For Steelers At Quarterback
Bennedict Mathurin13 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner13 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford13 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday13 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis13 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown13 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham13 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis14 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard15 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel15 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko15 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson15 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson16 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin16 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young20 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama20 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim21 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge22 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä1 day ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau1 day ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole1 day ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF