X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2 - HR/FB for Hitters

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier.

Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners build their teams around power for this reason. Yet fluky HR campaigns can happen just as easily as fluky batting average ones.

How do we tell the difference between a legitimate breakout and a fluke?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How to Interpret HR/FB

HR/FB measures the percentage of fly balls that leave the park. Last year, 13.7% of all fly balls ended up in the seats. Like BABIP, an experienced player's personal benchmark in the stat is a better indicator of his future performance than the league average. For example, Giancarlo Stanton is generally regarded as one of the top sluggers in the game today. His HR/FB was 34.3% in 2017, nearly triple the league average rate. If this number regressed to the league average, Stanton wouldn't be very good. However, he has a career rate of 26.9%. Clearly, above average power is something Stanton just does. Last year was special, but he should continue to crush bombs with regularity.

Large spikes or dropoffs in HR/FB are generally temporary, meaning that the stat is usually not predictive of a power breakout. Fantasy owners want to know the next power breakout, so this may be somewhat disappointing. Future power production may be predicted, however, by an increase in fly ball rate, or the percentage of a batter's flies as opposed to liners or grounders. Elite sluggers generally post a fly ball percentage of around 40%. Subjected to this test, Stanton had a 39.4% rate in 2017 and a career mark of 40.4%. These rate stats, combined with a consistently above average HR/FB, make Stanton the player he is.

Stanton doesn't really illustrate the distinction between HR/FB and FB% because he excels at both. For a predictive illustration, consider his former teammate Christian Yelich. His HR/FB last season was a strong 15.3%, suggesting that he should have hit a few bombs for fantasy owners. Yet he managed only 18 big flies in 695 PAs last season. The reason is a tiny 25.2% fly ball rate, a rate too low to do anything with even Stanton's power.

Yelich managed 21 big flies in 2016, but his underlying 23.6% HR/FB was considerably higher than his career 16.2% rate. He hit very few balls into the air that year (20% FB%), meaning that any loss of HR/FB would cripple his fantasy value. Yelich wasn't a complete bust thanks to an uptick in FB% last season, but he still failed to clear the 20 HR plateau in a year where seemingly everyone hit 25+.

Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins provides the best illustration of trusting HR/FB without regard for FB%. In 2009, Mauer went bonkers with a .365/.444/.587 line and 28 bombs. His HR/FB% spiked to 20.4% that season, but nothing in his history indicated he could maintain a level that high as his previous career best was 10.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, his 29.5 FB% was far too low to expect any real power production moving forward. He received first round attention from fantasy owners in 2010, and the Twins gave him an extension they could not really afford. Mauer morphed back into the singles hitter we know today, ruining many 2010 fantasy seasons and saddling the Twins with one of the worst contracts in MLB.

If you're looking for the 2018 version of 2010 Mauer, Eric Hosmer (22.5% HR/FB, 22.2% FB%), Tommy Pham (26.1% FB%, 26.7% HR/FB), and Domingo Santana (27.7% FB%, 30.9% HR/FB) all seem like strong candidates for power regression.

 

Conclusion

HR/FB is considered the BABIP of power because it can be used to evaluate whether a given player is outperforming his true talent level. A player with a large spike or decline in HR/FB should generally be expected to return to his established baseline moving forward. Ballpark factors may alter HR/FB, but in general raw fly ball percentage is a better tool to identify potential power breakouts.

Of course, it is possible for a batter to legitimately change his approach and permanently boost his HR/FB. Statcast allows us to measure precisely how hard a player is hitting the ball, potentially validating a performance that would otherwise be labeled a fluke. We'll take a closer look in Part 3!

 

More Sabermetrics and Advanced Stats




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Los Angeles Chargers23 mins ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
Austin Gomber1 hour ago

Scratched From Rehab Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Zack Wheeler1 hour ago

Records 10 Strikeouts
1 hour ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals1 hour ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Aroldis Chapman1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of The Season
Garrett Crochet2 hours ago

Works Eight Strong Innings
Tutu Atwell2 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Rafael Devers2 hours ago

Finally Delivers At The Plate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Xavier Edwards2 hours ago

Collects Four Hits
Pete Alonso2 hours ago

Comes Up Clutch
Jackson Merrill4 hours ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday4 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets4 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo4 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford4 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki4 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis4 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet4 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana4 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips4 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
Dean Wade5 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
George Springer5 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman5 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Trae Young5 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman5 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies5 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Joel Embiid5 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin5 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Freddy Peralta5 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Filip Chytil5 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Jackson Chourio6 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Declan Chisholm6 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Michael Harris II6 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Keaton Wallace6 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard6 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson6 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta6 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Paul Skenes6 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Eeli Tolvanen6 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz6 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
7 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
7 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
8 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams8 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns10 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots10 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
10 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody10 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers10 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers12 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans12 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett12 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns13 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals13 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown13 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Bennedict Mathurin14 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner14 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford14 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday14 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis14 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown14 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham14 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis15 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard16 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel16 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko16 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson16 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson17 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin17 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young21 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama21 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim22 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge24 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä1 day ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF