X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Plate Discipline Metrics to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League

Nick Mariano continues his fantasy baseball strategy series with a look at plate discipline metrics, and how to use them to win your league.

Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about advanced statistics that give us a leg up on the competition, and help us win our fantasy baseball leagues.

Our first articles were about a hitter’s BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. We then looked at pitchers and their SIERAs. If you didn't get a chance to read those yet, well, you should.

Now we turn back to hitters, and we’ll be checking in on some plate discipline metrics that go well beyond walks and strikeouts. Let's get to it.

 

The Importance of Looking Beyond Strikeouts and Walks

It used to be perfectly acceptable to say that Player X strikes out or walks “a lot” in conversation, but we can do better than that. Let’s look at a big power bat from last season, Nolan Arenado, to illustrate our points. Last season Arenado had a 16.5 percent strikeout rate with a 5.1 percent walk rate.

Arenado is currently mashing, but those stats overshadow what looks to be insane growth at the plate. As of this writing on May 4, Arenado is both walking and striking out 9.7 percent of the time. Now for the million dollar question, is this growth sustainable or just noise?

Here is where the fun can really begin. Instead of just looking at how often a player’s at-bat ends in a strikeout or walk, we can see how frequently they swing and miss, as well as how often they swing at pitches thrown outside of the zone. Why limit ourselves to evaluating the player solely by the end result when there are many data points from within the at-bats?

 

Advanced Plate Discipline Metrics

There are seven items on the agenda. That may sound overwhelming, but I promise that it all comes together neatly. Statistics such as these can speak to two things: how the batter is performing and how pitchers are attacking them. We’re focusing on the hitter here, pitchers come next. You can find Arenado’s dashboard for these stats here (and do the same for each respective player on Fangraphs).

 
Swinging Strike Rate
It’s what it sounds like, how often a player swings at a pitch and misses. Let’s stick with Nolan Arenado as his 2016 has shown growth. We covered how in 2015 he struck out 16.5 percent of the time, and this came with a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate. So far in 2016, Arenado has cut down his strikeout rate to 9.7 percent! How much should we believe? Well for starters, his swinging strike rate has dropped to 6.8 percent thus far. Very interesting, and that certainly leads one to believe there might truly be something here.

 
Swing, O-Swing and Z-Swing Rates
Apologies for throwing three things at you at once, but this works well if you can picture the batter and pitcher locked into battle. These rates for looking at how often a player swings at pitches, both outside and inside the zone.

Let’s go one-by-one here:

Swing rate is simply the number of swings divided by the number of pitches seen. This can speak to overall patience.

O-Swing rate is the number of swings at pitches out of the zone over total pitches out of the zone. Colloquially this can be referred to as “chase rate”, or how often a batter “chases” a pitch outside of the zone.

Z-Swing rate is how often a player makes contact with pitches in the zone over total pitches in the zone. This can shine light on how selective a batter is.

On their own, these stats can’t really provide too much insight. Once a player has a baseline though, then you can really identify changes – for better or worse.

Here are Arenado’s respective Swing rate, O-Swing rate, and Z-Swing rate from 2015 and this season:

Year Swing Rate O-Swing Rate Z-Swing Rate
2015 54.2 percent 38.5 percent 74.2 percent
2016 47.3 percent (-6.9 percent) 30.7 percent (-7.8 percent) 66.0 percent (-8.2 percent)

 

So what those numbers say is that Arenado is:

  1. Swinging less in general.
  2. Chasing less pitches out of the zone.
  3. Swinging at less pitches in the zone.

 
Still with me? Good, because it looks like we’re really onto something here. Arenado appears to have unleashed a new approach in the early going, but just because he is laying off more pitches doesn’t mean he is more successful when he swings. These next stats can help fill that gap.

 
Contact, O-Contact, and Z-Contact
These rates speak to how often hitters make contact with said pitches. You’ll see the same trend from the first set apply here:

Contact rate is the number of times contact was made with a pitch over total number of swings. Making contact is important.

O-Contact rate is how often contact was made on pitches out of the zone over total swings out of zone. There are several hitters who are notorious for still succeeding even on pitches thrown out of the zone. Vladimir Guerrero comes to mind.

Z-Contact rate is how often contact was made on pitches in the zone over total swings in the zone. Those pitches in the strike zone are ideally more hittable.

Here we go again with Mr. Arenado:

Year Contact Rate O-Contact Rate Z-Contact Rate
2015 80.3 percent 64.2 percent 90.9 percent
2016 85.6 percent (+5.3 percent) 72.5 percent (+8.3 percent) 92.4 percent (+1.5 percent)

 
Hey now, positive indicators in every single category. He really does seem to be growing in his fourth big league season.

 

The Big Picture

Now instead of simply looking at whether a guy has struck out or walked, you now have context to analyze how valid the results are to the batter’s process.

It is also imperative that you pay close attention to each respective player’s traits. Do not compare a speedy contact hitter to a big power bat. Comparing a player’s career rates to his current season can be useful, but the most ideal comparison is usually going to be their most recent season.

Sometimes the numbers are not so clean-cut. How about a player whose strikeout rate has gone from 21.2 percent to 21 percent despite big changes in swinging strike rate (13.9 to 17.2 percent) and O-Swing rate (33.7 to 41.4 percent). This player’s plate discipline points to more strikeouts, not less. It’s Yasiel Puig, by the way.

As with every other statistic, no one number or set can tell the whole story. Perhaps a batter is being attacked with more off-speed or breaking pitches. Seeing more inside pitches rather than outside, high versus low, etc. Maybe they’re seeing the same pitches, but struggling with sliders this season. We’re here to examine the bigger picture.

Now you have a much better idea of how well a hitter is swinging the bat. These are more tools with which you can inspect a hot or cold start, identify over and under-performances, and most importantly, further understand the beautiful game of baseball. Did I say that? I meant to crush your competition with, obviously.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF