RADIO
The 2023 fantasy football season tossed quite a few curveballs our way, especially for those who staked their fantasy football hopes on quarterbacks. Icons like Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, and Daniel Jones all saw their seasons end prematurely. At the same time, stud quarterback Kyler Murray spent most of the early part of the year on injured reserve. It was a frustrating season for injuries.
Josh Allen once again eclipsed the high-end, elite 24.0 fantasy points per game ceiling with Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson not too far behind at over 21.0 fantasy points per game a piece. The only other quarterback over 20.0 fantasy points per game was Dak Prescott at 20.7. What's the takeaway here? Three of the four quarterbacks who eclipsed 20.0 FPPG did so with their legs. While Prescott was magnificent, he threw for over 4,500 passing yards to go with 36 passing touchdowns, both near career highs. That's not to say Dak can't repeat his 2023 season, but it will be more difficult to replicate for fantasy purposes without the rushing floor of the other three.
So, while snagging one of those top-tier quarterbacks can be your golden ticket to fantasy glory, for this exercise, we are going to exclude the top five quarterbacks by ADP (average draft position). Assuming you don't draft a quarterback very early in drafts, what should your game plan be, and who should you target? Here’s why holding off on drafting a quarterback until at least the sixth round could be your smartest move while loading up your roster with elite running backs and wide receivers in the meantime. We'll dive into the rationale, supported by the latest Average Draft Position data from Fantasy Pros. Now, shall we?
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Benefits of Not Drafting an Early Quarterback in Fantasy
There is plenty of wisdom in drafting an elite signal-caller such as Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts early, and if the opportunity is there, take it! However, one thing that will help you in your fantasy drafts is practicing different builds via mock drafting ahead of time. By running several simulations based on starting a draft with X, Y, and Z, you can get an idea of how your team might look based on what you do in the early rounds, whether it's by targeting a quarterback early, waiting until the middle rounds, or even by grabbing two late.
Quarterbacks who can score fantasy points with their legs typically have a higher floor for fantasy in a given week. Think about it, if a quarterback rushes for 50 yards on the ground, that's the equivalent of passing for 125 yards in most leagues, while a rushing touchdown is worth six fantasy points by itself, the equivalent of passing for 50 yards and a touchdown. For that reason, some of the elite, dual-threat quarterbacks listed above are good bets for fantasy, but drafting a typical pocket passer in the early rounds of fantasy drafts can lead to disappointment due to the reality that passing yardage, interceptions, and passing touchdowns can vary greatly from year to year.
By deciding to pass on an early quarterback, you allow yourself to load up at running back and wide receiver in the early rounds. This is especially important in 12 or 14-team fantasy leagues as the number of running backs, wide receivers, and flex sports are bigger due to the larger number of teams in the league, making hitting those positions early even more important. As many NFL teams have begun taking a committee-based approach to their backfield, bell-cow running backs are scarcer now more than ever. If you can lock up one of the early running backs who likely has that team's backfield all to himself, that will set you up for success early on in your draft by laying a solid foundation to build upon. Now let's get to three quarterback targets for your drafts along with three quarterback sleepers to target!
Fantasy Football Quarterback Targets
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
QB7, 62.3 ADP
Will the real slim shady, I mean Joe Burrow, please stand up? After taking the Bengals deep into the playoffs twice including one Super Bowl appearance, Burrow saw his 2023 season end prematurely after just 10 games, the second time in four years. However, now that he is back and healthy with the Bengals bringing back wide receiver Tee Higgins, the arrow is pointing upward for Burrow this season.
Cincinnati also made several upgrades along the offensive line, including tackle/guard Amarius Mims in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and offensive tackle Trent Brown. The Bengals traded running back Joe Mixon to the Houston Texans, which could indicate that they plan to pass more in 2024.
Did you forget what healthy Joe Burrow looks like? Let me remind you pic.twitter.com/NclzT9zO5Y
— nathan😾 (@nwhodey) August 8, 2024
We have seen Joe Burrow at his absolute best, which is eclipsing 4,600 passing yards with 35 passing touchdowns. With all the weapons around him, including star wideout Ja'Marr Chase, it's hard not to be optimistic about the Bengals offense this season. While his price might be a little higher than some fantasy drafters might be comfortable with, the reality is you can likely make five picks before taking Burrow in your draft, which gives you a lot more flexibility to work with versus taking a quarterback like Allen or Hurts at the end of Round Two.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
QB10, 74.8 ADP
Kyler is back, baby! After sitting out the early part of the season to recover from an ACL tear, he finally hit the field in Week 10 and didn’t disappoint. Over the seven games he played, Kyler averaged a solid 18.9 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals gave him some serious help in the 2024 NFL Draft, grabbing wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 overall pick and snagging running back Trey Benson early in the third round at pick No. 66. With budding star tight end Trey McBride and veteran running back James Conner already in the mix, this offense is looking way more dangerous than ever. Plus, the front office added veteran Jonah Williams to lock down the right tackle spot.
Considering how rough Arizona’s skill players looked in 2023, it makes sense to be pumped about Kyler’s fantasy prospects this season. One of his big fantasy perks is that sweet rushing floor--he’s been averaging about five fantasy points per game on the ground throughout his career. With Harrison stepping in as a legit WR1 alongside second-year wideout Michael Wilson and slot man Greg Dortch, the Cardinals’ offense looks miles better.
As for game scripts, they should favor the Cardinals airing it out. Last season, their defense was pretty much a sieve, finishing second worst in points allowed (455) and fourth worst in yards per play (5.7). Sure, they’ve made a few defensive upgrades, but let’s be real--this unit isn’t suddenly going to become elite overnight. That means Kyler and the offense will likely be in plenty of shootouts.
Right now, Murray might just be the best QB steal in fantasy football. He’s got the ceiling to match the top-tier guys, a reliable weekly floor thanks to his rushing ability, and the best part? You don’t have to spend an early pick to get him. Total win-win.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
QB13, 107.4 ADP
While Caleb Williams might be getting all the buzz this year and is probably the safer pick in dynasty formats, this author would like to argue that on a single-season basis, Daniels has more upside than Williams! Jayden even as a rookie has the potential to bring the heat with his dynamic rushing upside.
Daniels didn’t just play well against the SEC in his final year of college; he lit it up. We’re talking Heisman-winning, jaw-dropping performances. Picture this: 40 passing touchdowns with only four picks, racking up 3,811 yards through the air. But wait, there’s more--add 1,250 rushing yards and 10 more touchdowns on the ground. This dude was on fire, and he’s got the potential to blow up your fantasy league like 2019 Lamar Jackson all over again!
No gloves, no problem 🔥@Seatgeek | #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/RIlgGFJ24T
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) August 8, 2024
Kliff Kingsbury’s the new OC in Washington, and if history tells us anything, we’re about to see some fast-paced, heavy RPO action--just like he ran with Kyler Murray back in Arizona. Since 2014, there have been six college quarterbacks who rushed for over 1,000 yards in a season in college and then started at least 16 games in their first two NFL seasons. They have averaged a whopping 20.1 fantasy points per game while finishing as a top 12 QB in 63.5% of their games. Now, with Daniels set to start in Week 1 of 2024, he’s primed to make some serious noise in the fantasy world right out of the gate.
Honorable Mention:
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
QB11, 99.8 ADP
All he does is throw touchdowns and win games. Potentially losing WR Brandon Aiyuk via trade could sting a little, but it's hard to bet against a Kyle Shanahan offense for fantasy.
Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
QB16, 116.1 ADP
It feels weird seeing Herbert ranked so low this year. QB16? Are you kidding me? I get it, he lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but let’s not act like Herbert suddenly forgot how to play quarterback. This guy has been a fantasy stud since he stepped onto the field, and we shouldn't be completely buying the hype about the Chargers becoming a run-heavy team under new head coach Jim Harbaugh either. Sure, Harbaugh loves to ground and pound, but Herbert’s arm talent is too good to ignore, and game scripts might just force them to air it out more often than not.
Look, the Chargers’ defense isn’t exactly a brick wall, so they’re going to be in plenty of shootouts. Herbert’s going to have to sling it to keep up and let’s not forget that he still has weapons. The Chargers brought in some fresh faces, and Herbert’s connection with his new guys could surprise everyone. Plus, he’s got rookie second-rounder, Ladd McConkey to go with Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark. Is it ideal? No, but nonetheless, Herbert’s going to rack up the yards and touchdowns, even without Allen and Williams.
#Chargers Justin Herbert taking snaps in the walking boot today at training camp. Is this a good sign for his week 1 status? pic.twitter.com/dHUM0yMbe6
— Chris Escamilla (@CJMills805) August 7, 2024
At QB16, Herbert is a steal. People are sleeping on him because of the changes around him, but this is still the same guy who can drop 300 yards and multiple touchdowns on any given Sunday. If you’re looking for a quarterback with a solid floor and a sky-high ceiling, Herbert’s your guy. Don’t let him slide too far in your draft--scoop him up, and you might be the one laughing to a fantasy championship.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
QB23, 156.4 ADP
The Watson era in Cleveland has been nothing short of a trainwreck thus far! The Browns gave up a mountain of draft picks to get Watson, basically handing the Houston Texans the keys to fast-track their rebuild and potentially dominate the AFC. To add insult to injury, the Texans knocked the Browns out of the playoffs last season in a brutal beatdown. And as if that wasn’t bad enough, watching Baker Mayfield shine in Tampa Bay while the Browns struggle has been like rubbing salt in the wound for Browns fans everywhere.
Watson was once a first-round pick and a fantasy football superstar during his early days with the Texans, finishing as the QB2 in 2019 with 22.1 PPG and the QB5 in 2020, averaging 23.5 PPG. But since then, it’s been a downhill spiral. He sat out the entire 2021 season after a failed contract negotiation with the Texans and amidst serious allegations of sexual misconduct from nearly two dozen women. Talk about a fall from grace.
Then, Watson was hit with an 11-game suspension by the NFL in 2022, and he barely played in 2023 after being sidelined with a shoulder injury. So now the big question is: Can Watson get healthy and recapture some of that old magic from 2018-2020, or has the physical and emotional toll of the last few years completely taken him out of the game we once knew?
The Browns offense has some serious talent, led by head coach Kevin Stefanski, with stars like Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku, plus one of the best guard duos in the league with Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller. There’s also depth with guys like Jerome Ford, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore. Stefanski’s aiming for a more up-tempo, pass-heavy offense this season, so could this be Watson’s breakout year? It’s a fair question, but with his ADP sitting at QB23--the lowest it’s ever been since his rookie year, there might be a serious buying opportunity here. Crazy to think that Watson is still just 28 years old, and the markets are treating him like he completely forgot how to play football.
Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers
QB28, 199.4 ADP
Fields died so that Caleb Williams could live. It's crazy though when you think about what Fields had to work with as a rookie in Chicago in 2021 compared to the bevy of offensive talent around Williams in 2024. While there are concerns about Fields being able to get the ball out quickly enough and on time, he has a lot of positive traits as a quarterback, most noticeably his legs for fantasy.
Fields has six Top 3 fantasy finishes over the last two seasons, including games where he's rushed for 178, 147, and 132 yards! Some of that was due to having to run for his life behind the bad Bears' offensive line, but it's evident just how much upside Fields has every week for fantasy purposes. Could head coach Mike Tomlin and the stability of the Steelers' organization be just the fresh start that Fields needed?
"I have a feeling based on my conversations that if Justin can continue to ascend like he is looking in practice, he's going start Week 1, he's going to be the opening day starter."
-@LRiddickESPN on the #Steelers starting QB competition between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields pic.twitter.com/Hp5KbkyJC5
— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) August 8, 2024
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