RADIO
We are on to the RBI category in our later round categories targets series. This is a category that gets a bit overlooked just due to the nature of things, but it's important to have a good understanding of it.
This post will follow the later round HR targets post pretty closely, so check that out here if you have not already.
Let's talk briefly about RBI and then get into business.
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Considerations
The most important inputs into RBI are slugging percentage and lineup factors. If you are hitting a bunch of singles, you will not be racking up many RBI on those singles as it would require a runner to be on at least second base to score from there. The RBI leaders typically have a bunch of plate appearances, and a bunch of doubles and home runs.
It's also important to target certain teams in this situation. More often than not, team context does not matter as much as you would intuitively think, but for counting stats like runs and RBI, it can definitely factor in. Last season, the Astros led the league with 863 runs, while the Pirates scored just 609 to bring up the rear. That's a difference of 1.57 runs per game, making it a much worse proposition to hit a home run on the Pirates than on the Astros, at least as far as RBI is concerned.
Lineup position is also very important, as it's quite tough to drive in runs as a lead-off hitter or as someone hitting at the very bottom of the lineup. Some players will be boosted into a more prominent lineup spot due to injury, and those are players you will want to take a look at during the season as they will provide more RBI in that new situation.
Visualizing HR vs. ADP
Here's our scatter plot, using ATC projections to visualize which later round players are projecting well in RBI. Now let's talk about a few individual names.
Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets
Pete Alonso, New York Mets (ADP 45)
This is not a later-round player, no doubt about it, but I can't leave him off. Alonso is the league's leader in projected RBI, and he goes outside of the top-40 picks quite often. You might be able to snag Alonso in round four or five of your draft, which I highly recommend you do. As long as he is healthy, he will be one of the league's best home run hitters, which comes with a ton of RBIs naturally. The other thing working for Alonso this year is the addition of Starling Marte as well as other high on-base percentage players like Mark Canha. RBI opportunities will be plentiful, and Alonso feels a bit too cheap in standard category leagues where RBI and homers make up 20% of the categories.
Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Guardians (ADP 120)
He was our poster boy in the home runs post, but we can't leave him off the list here. He's projected pretty conservatively at 94 RBI, but as one of the game's premier home run hitters, I think he can beat that pretty easily if he stays healthy. The reason he falls a bit in drafts is the DH-only eligibility, but all this guy has done in his career is piled up an elite .503 career slugging percentage with a homer every 16.7 times he steps to the plate. He's a phenomenal bat to add to your roster if you start your team without a ton of pop.
Joey Gallo, New York Yankees (ADP 175)
Obligatory Gallo recommendation here. You will have to eat an absolutely atrocious batting average, but he's an easy 80+ RBI player in this Yankees lineup, and that is quite a nice total this late in the draft. Just make sure you can stomach the batting average.
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 130)
Another beneficiary of a re-tooled lineup here. The Phillies really bulked up with the signings of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Now you have those two joining one of the league's highest on-base percentage hitters in Bryce Harper, and the result is likely to be 100+ RBI for Hoskins.
The career for Hoskins has been a bit bumpy, and his career batting sits at just .241 because of it with only 13 career stolen bases. But the one thing he has done consistently is hit for extra bases as his career slugging percentage sits at an elite .502 (and it spiked to .530 last year as he hit 27 homers in just 107 games played). Hoskins is probably my favorite first baseman to draft when ADP is considered; I think he's in for a massive year at the plate.
Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP 175)
Chapman was basically free at the beginning of the draft season, but I imagine his ADP is on the way up after the trade to Toronto. Last year, the Blue Jays were second in the league with 846 runs and 834 RBI. He is unlikely to hit in the top-five in the lineup, but even as a six or seven hitter, he will have plenty of ducks on the pond in 2022 with the elite lineup hitting ahead of him.
The criticism is that Chapman has been a bit Gallo-esque since 2019. He has hit a putrid .214 over these last two seasons with a strikeout rate north of 30%. Add on that he doesn't steal bases and you have yourself pretty much a two-category guy. One of those categories is RBI though, and Chapman can certainly still hit the long ball (27 bombs in 151 games last year). It's a good time to buy Chapman in drafts if you need some RBI late.
Others to Consider
Nolan Arenado, Brandon Lowe, J.D. Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, Hunter Renfroe, Nelson Cruz, Adam Duvall, Miguel Sano
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