Underdog Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Target In Best Ball (2025)

Welcome back to my pitchers to target for Underdog best ball drafts. In case you missed it, you can see my Underdog hitters to target article as well. I took the liberty of running Underdog's custom scoring through my aggregated pitching projections to identify the best values when compared to the average draft position.

Keep in mind there's a section of the drafting population that adheres strictly to site ADP. While this mostly represents a square take on the game, it also provides an opportunity to gain some edge on the field simply by doing some legwork.

When it comes to my Underdog personal pitching plan, it's important to put sheer scarcity (or lack thereof) into perspective. Twelve teams partake in each draft, averaging roughly seven pitchers per squad (84 total). Given there are 30 MLB teams with five starters apiece, that total supply of 150 leaves +60 SPs, or 44 percent of the field undrafted -- which could and should affect your strategy. Compare that to the same 84 drafted outfielders out of a starting pool of 90, where +93 percent of viable assets go off the board and you have my simplest reasoning to wait on pitching.

Be sure to draft with our updated fantasy baseball rankings:

• Underdog best ball fantasy baseball rankings
• Points fantasy baseball rankings
• Dynasty fantasy baseball rankings
• 2025 prospects rankings for fantasy baseball
• FYPD fantasy baseball rankings
• Saves+Holds fantasy baseball rankings
• OBP leagues fantasy baseball rankings
• NFBC best ball fantasy baseball rankings
• Fantrax best ball fantasy baseball rankings

Underdog Best Ball Overview

Best ball continues to earn more and more of the fantasy baseball market share because it checks all the millennial boxes in this age of instant gratification. The lobbies fill fast, drafts happen even faster, and there's zero in-season management. That's right -- no trades, adds, waivers, or FAAB. Even the scoring is done automatically by optimizing your roster's highest possible weekly total.

Of course, anytime you jump into a new format, it's critical to read the rules. Slightly different than your standard point-per-out systems, pitcher production is tallied as follows in the image below.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Underdog ADP: 90

For years, we couldn't hear analysis regarding San Francisco ace Logan Webb without the add-on "better real-life pitcher than fantasy." Well, in the Dinger Streets, we finally get a format that properly marries baseball fantasy to reality.

Thought of as a more vanilla-flavored SP than some of the high-strikeout surrounding hurlers at ADP, Webb makes up for every bit of that slander with quality volume. Having thrown 5 percent more innings (21.1 IP) than the entire field of SPs dating back to 2023, he's on the shortest list of players we expect to reach 200+ innings in any given regular season. That same veteran presence makes it feel like he's been around forever, though we're entering just his age-28 season.

Projecting as an SP1 by total points (11th overall), Webb allows Underdog players an unusual luxury -- getting to draft their entire starting offense (3x INF, 3x OF, 1 FLEX) and still coming down with a bona fide ace in the eighth round.

While his 20 quality starts were tied for the eighth most in 2024, more impressive were his league-leading 14 money starts (7.0 IP min, 2.0 ER max). Averaging 6.2 IP per GS not only boosts your shot at a QS every time out but also increases the odds for those supremely valuable wins.

Webb's control is elite (33.9 percent Ball, 5.9 percent BB) but the profile's far from boring -- he consistently induces chases outside the zone (34.6 percent O-Swing) to go with one of the best elevation baskets in the game today (56.8 percent ground ball, 0.48 HR/9).

Plus, he's pitching in a good park in terms of park factor and the offense behind him is improving annually. The arsenal's strong but also undersung, featuring three different pitches that generate a +26.5 percent whiff rate. Not customarily binned with the usual suspects atop the strikeout leaderboard, Webb's 14th in total punchouts dating back to 2022.

In the age of babying starters, Logan Webb's a throwback to the days of +200 IP seasons

Obviously a soft-contact + groundball machine, he doesn't get enough credit for the ability to attack quality hitters up in the zone w/a darn good four-seamer (6'9" Extension, +34% Whiff) pic.twitter.com/jt8fSqsOce

— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) March 13, 2025

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Underdog ADP: 112

Unlike projecting hitters, I'm generally avoiding total point projections in favor of points per inning pitched (outside of the proven workhorses like Logan Webb).

Yes, it's common knowledge pitchers get hurt often -- but anyone claiming to know who's going to get hurt, and more importantly when, is lying to you and themselves.

Look at someone like Zack Wheeler as a perfect example. It wasn't until his sixth season that he managed to eclipse 100+ IP for the second time. Fast forward to present day and he's now thought of as the consummate workhorse, having not missed a start in seven seasons.

Enter Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers' 31-year-old superstar SP. I can't think of another reason besides injury suppressing his draft cost thus far. Glasnow's currently the 30th SP off the board in the ninth round and he's my seventh-most-impactful pitcher on a per-inning basis (6.61 Pts/IP).

Granted he's made a couple of trips to the IL since joining Los Angeles with a bevy of injuries (back tightness, forearm tendinitis) but that's baked into the price when falling outside the top 110.

Since Underdog disproportionately rewards distance, (especially when it comes to the coveted quality start plus win combo), Glasnow's exactly the type of risk worth taking when the market's cold on him. What I mean is the concern surrounds the total workload for the season, not on a per-game basis. He's one of only a dozen SPs with 125+ IP in 2024 to average over 18 outs per start, and that's not all.

Glasnow posted eight money starts (7.0 IP min, 2.0 ER max), including an outstanding six 10+ strikeout performances. He boasts an incredible diagnostic profile featuring tons of spin and multiple 40+ percent whiff pitches. Oh, and last I checked, the Dodgers are supposed to be pretty good, putting him in line for those valuable wins every five days.

Tyler Glasnow, 84mph Hammer. 🔨 pic.twitter.com/ki3h0C8RmU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 8, 2025

 

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

Underdog ADP: 159

Much less of a workload concern than Glasnow, Nick Pivetta averaged 26 games started over the last four seasons. I'm guessing last year's underwhelming 4.14 ERA explains some of his price suppression, but it also serves my point in the introduction -- some pitchers archetype as frontline starters available deep in the draft. You could easily build out an elite offensive foundation and still wind up with an entire staff of top-tier SPs on winning teams.

Currently the 50th pitcher being drafted in the Dinger, I've got Pivetta as my 16th-best SP on a per-inning basis (5.97 Pts/IP). Forget last year's earned run average, inflated by an anomalous 18.2 percent HR/FB on the road, where he surrendered 20 of his 28 HR allowed (~71 percent). Pivetta's earned run indicators were all solid (3.31 SIERA, 3.59 xERA) and the skill set is excellent.

America's Finest City's newest Padre is a strike-throwing machine with top-flight disciplinary metrics across the spreadsheet (22.9 percent K-BB, 33.6 percent Ball, 29.0 percent CSW, 34.2 percent O-Swing). Moving to Petco Park shouldn't hurt, either, as Baseball Savant grades it as the third-best place to pitch in MLB.

Pivetta's also benefited from a pitch mix change over the last couple of years, throttling his cutter while outright ditching the knuckle curve for an effective new sweeper (26 percent Use/.328 xSLG /35.0 percent Whiff). Plus, the move to San Diego keeps him pitching for a winning team, and has lots of opportunities to hang those precious QS + Win results.

MLB Case Study Series: Nick Pivetta’s Breakout

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Nick Pivetta’s second half of 2023 was career-changing—he looked like a true No. 1 starter, dominating in key metrics (velo, strikeouts, arsenal improvements).

His transformation was fueled by a velocity increase, pitch… pic.twitter.com/SEst5OqGPP

— Chris Langin (@LanginTots13) February 26, 2025

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