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Today's Underdog MLB DFS prop picks for Tuesday, June 6, 2023, by Josh Costello. Use his MLB over/under props recommendations to win money on Underdog.
Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy MLB DFS prop picks for Tuesday, June 6, 2023. Welcome to our new DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will focus on the MLB DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people - you're just playing against the projections.
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Shane Bieber 4.5 Strikeouts (LOWER)
Luke Weaver 85.5 Pitches (LOWER)
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 Hits (LOWER)
Bieber is facing the Boston Red Sox, a team with the eighth-fewest strikeouts and sixth-highest batting average in baseball. Bieber also has the lowest K/9 of his career, down to 6.36. The last time Bieber recorded more than four strikeouts was nearly a month ago, against the Detroit Tigers. The 28-year-old's walks and HardHit% are also up from last year. There is a real possibility that Bieber gets chased from this game, and that bodes well for the under.
Weaver has been alright this year but hasn't been that good. He's carrying a 5.36 ERA through 43 2/3 innings. The main reason for this pick is his opponent. The Los Angeles Dodgers have not been incredibly dominant, but they are still top-5 in run differential, home runs, walks, and OPS.
Weaver does not walk many batters, but the Dodgers lead the league with 4.23 walks per game. The veteran right-hander also has a 19% HR/FB, which is good for a Dodgers team with the second most home runs in baseball. If Weaver gets knocked around, he may be out of this game well before approaching 85.5 pitches.
Taylor has not been a prolific hitter throughout his career, but he is currently having one of his worst seasons at the plate. In May, Taylor only racked up nine hit through 24 games. The veteran outfielder is slashing .224/.276/.401 with a nearly 35% strikeout rate.
Taylor hasn't been unlucky either, owning a .307 BABIP and .219 xBA. The 32-year-old faces off against Zach Eflin, who he last faced in 2020 and went 1-for-5 against. Eflin is now on the Rays and having the best season of his career, so Taylor may have difficulty getting on base in this game.
Mitch Keller 7.0 Strikeouts (HIGHER)
Adley Rutschman 0.5 BB (HIGHER)
Shohei Ohtani 1.5 TB (HIGHER)
Keller is amid a breakout season, with a 3.25 ERA and 93 strikeouts through 74 2/3 innings. The right-hander currently has the sixth-highest K/9 among qualified pitchers and is facing the Oakland Athletics, who have the third most strikeouts in baseball. Keller has also eclipsed seven strikeouts in seven straight starts. The Pirates pitcher has been dominant, and I don't think the Athletics will be the ones to slow him down.
Rutschman is a rare hitter in today's era of baseball. He's a switch-hitting catcher with more walks than strikeouts. The young Oriole is facing Freddy Peralta of the Milwaukee Brewers. Peralta is a talented right-handed pitcher, but he has always had an issue with walks, recording over 3 BB/9 in every season of his career.
Peralta has also given up multiple walks in five of his last six starts. Rutschman is carrying a 35:43 K:BB this season, with 28 of those walks coming against right-handed pitching. The odds seem in Rutschman's favor to get a walk today.
Ohtani is one of the best players in all of baseball. The Angels superstar is currently in the 85th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. All of that to say, he's very good at hitting baseballs.
Ohtani faces Hayden Wesneski, who owns a 4.81 ERA through 43 innings this season. Wesneski also has a 20% HR/FB, and Ohtani hits fly balls in over 40% of plate appearances. I think Ohtani easily gets over 1.5 total bases with a few at-bats in this game.
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