UFL Best Bets: Preseason Futures & Week 1 Picks

2024 was once again the year of the Birmingham Stallions, with yet another well-rounded season, an MVP award for Adrian Martinez, and their third-straight Spring Football championship. However, some of the other stories, both good and bad, were almost equally as captivating. There is always the discussion of financial concerns and potential expansion, but we saw great campaigns by the San Antonio Brahmas and Michigan Panthers, and the fantastic tale of Jake Bates.

Also great for the league, even with rollercoaster attendance figures, they ended off on a good note with TV ratings, and there was once again a slew of players getting NFL opportunities, with 18 actually making an NFL team in some form or fashion. We had another rookie draft and all of the offseason transactions, and we had indoor/arena football to keep us company for a few weeks, but I have been eagerly awaiting the 2025 season kickoff for about nine months now.

I will be here every week of the all-too-short season. We move quick--once you think you have a feel for the flow of a spring football season, the tide changes course. That being said, let's dive into some of my favorite Preseason Futures , plus every spread, O/U, and ML for Week 1 of the 2025 UFL campaign.

Preseason Futures

UFL Championship

(All Odds Per DraftKings Sportsbook)

Birmingham Stallions (+200)*

St. Louis Battlehawks (+350)

D.C. Defenders (+600)

San Antonio Brahmas (+600)*

Michigan Panthers (+650)*

Arlington Renegades (+1100)*

Memphis Showboats (+1500)

Houston Roughnecks (+1800)

It might not be a high-reward play, but it is extremely logical to take the Birmingham Stallions to win it all again. Not only are they returning their backfield and most of their receiving core, including Jace Sternberger, but they are also bringing back 2023 USFL MVP Alex McGough, adding Case Cookus to the quarterback room, and making some fantastic offseason defensive acquisitions. Also, Skip Holtz is still their coach. Until further notice, it is tough to picture anyone dethroning the Stallions.

St. Louis will undoubtedly be in the running with Anthony Becht still at the helm, Max Duggan looking to break through at quarterback past Manny Wilkins, and an excellent set of skill positions to include Jacob Saylors, Hakeem Butler, Jahcour Pearson, Jake Sutherland (all returning), and Denzel Mims. However, with Bruce Gradkowski now an NFL assistant and A.J. McCarron gone, it is quite a leap to say that this offense will have the same level of synchronicity in 2025.

Up until very recently, I was very keen on some of D.C.'s offseason signings, like Lynn Bowden Jr., Devin Asiasi, D.J. Fluker, and several interesting pieces on defense. However, those players were cut somewhat surprisingly in the last week. I love that Jordan Ta'amu is back with Spencer Sanders behind him, Ty Scott returns, and Abram Smith is back in a solid backfield after missing most of the 2024 season, but they already had ground to make up on the other contenders in the XFL conference.

***Update: since I started writing this, Reggie Barlow has taken the head coaching job at Tennessee State- taking DC Gregg Williams with him- and QB Coach Shannon Harris will be stepping in as Interim head coach. So, this definitely knocks the Defenders down at least a point in my book.***

The 2024 XFL champions, the San Antonio Brahmas, will feature Kellen Mond at QB1 and will return the backfield of Anthony McFarland Jr./John Lovett with Jontre Kirklin, Marquez Stevenson, and Alize Mack as pass-catchers. Also, they added some stout defenders to an already imposing defense, and hopefully, Donald De La Haye sees a full season. At +600, this is another potential champion I can get behind.

The Michigan Panthers probably won't catch Bates lightning in a bottle again with special teams, but if Bryce Perkins is starting at QB, this team is a different level of dangerous. The defense getting Frank Ginda back is massive. Matt Colburn II and the rest of the RBs could be sneaky good. They lost a lot of offensive contributors this offseason, but at +650, this group is absolutely on the short list for title contention.

If there is a longer shot I like, it is Arlington at +1100. They return the core of Luis Perez, De'Veon Smith, and Sal Cannella; with other key returners in Tyler Vaughns, Donald Payne, and even punter Marquette King. They never lose too much, they never add that much, but this will be a competitive conference, and if this group can stay consistent and make the postseason, their cohesion is worth rolling the dice on.

This is where it gets rough as a Showboats fan. It was a very disappointing season last year with an on-paper more dynamic set of skill positions and some intriguing names on defense. Now with E.J. Perry at the helm, Troy Williams on deck, and an optimistic yet unproven backfield, it feels like they are starting from scratch again--and now Ken Whisenhunt has stepped away with days until kickoff, so O-Line Coach Jim Turner is the new Interim HC. Championship odds are not a consideration here.

Unfortunately for the Houston Roughnecks, C.J. Johnson is still their head coach, and they lost nearly everything that was likable about them in 2024 outside of their receivers, Keke Chism and Justin Hall. There is no Mark Thompson or Reuben Foster. Nolan Henderson will get the nod at quarterback, but honestly, we could see all three guys on the depth chart on the field—particularly Jalan McClendon. +1800 is generous—they should be happy to do any better than the 1-9 mark of 2024.

***Quick note on the Roughnecks: They have since announced former Oregon QB Anthony Brown as their starter over Nolan Henderson.***

***Quick note on the league- boy, I really hope they end up playing in Week 1.***

MVP: Alex McGough

Honorable Mentions: Bryce Perkins, Abram Smith, Kellen Mond, Hakeem Butler. Dark Horses: Max Duggan and Ricky Person Jr. 

Coach of the Year: Skip Holtz

Honorable Mentions: Anthony Becht, Mike Nolan. Dark Horse: Shannon Harris. 

Week 1 Picks

St. Louis Battlehawks at Houston Roughnecks (Friday, March 28th, at 8PM ET)

Battlehawks (-6), -278 ML, O/U 37.5

In Week 1 of 2024, the Battlehawks opened with an 18-16 loss in Michigan to the Panthers, while the Roughnecks lost an ugly 18-12 contest to the Showboats at home. I still have plenty of questions about the Battlehawks without McCarron and Gradkowski, but with how many options they return in the receiving core and backfield, Wilkins should do just fine, and the answers to all of the questions are either way better or not nearly as bad as the things we already know about Houston.

Anthony Brown gives the Roughnecks some legs in Week 1, but they are not a well-coached team, and they have lost almost everything bright for them in 2024 outside of their wide receivers. Getting Houston on the road is huge- it is a win you should get regardless of where the game is played. I see this final score ending in a range of anywhere from 21-10 to 31-14, so lay points with St. Louis, and I am iffy on this over/under.

San Antonio Brahmas at Arlington Renegades (Saturday, March 29th, at 4PM ET)

Brahmas (-3), -155 ML, O/U 37

Last season, San Antonio got off to a hot start with a 27-12 win at home against the Defenders, and the Renegades had a near-opposite Week 1, getting trounced by Birmingham 27-14 in Arlington in the UFL opener. This is the toughest game to call for the week. San Antonio may have a new QB, but he is a very talented one, and they return so much of what made them fantastic in 2024 to include their coaching staff.

Arlington returns several key pieces, too, but I trust both the offense and the defense just a little bit less for the Renegades than I do for the Brahmas- hence, the results of the 2024 season, even though Arlington was probably a little better than their record. Kalen Ballage could be a key to a new level of the Renegades' offense, and we shall see how timeless Luis Perez truly is. This is a rivalry game by current UFL standards, and I see a final score of 18-15 to 27-21, so lay with San Antonio and favor the over.

Michigan Panthers at Memphis Showboats (Sunday, March 30th, at 12PM ET)

Panthers (-5.5), -245 ML, O/U 38

Mind you, I got this line at Michigan -3.5 and a -180 ML, so that is what factors into the parlay below. Quite the steal if I do say so myself. This game has seen the heaviest movement of all Week 1 matchups- returning Ginda on defense and starting the year with Perkins at the helm pretty much makes up for every question I could have about Michigan, other than their lessened ability to rely on consistent feats of awe from Jake Bates.

I look for a reason to be optimistic about the Showboats every season, but they couldn't make it happen last season with Cookus, Darius Victor, and an arguably more impressive slew of receivers, where I do still at least think them to be decent. Throw in your head coach leaving so close to the start of the season, and this does not create good feelings in a game with the Panthers. I see a final score range of 18-13 to 24-16, so I favor Michigan in all ways and lean to the under.

Birmingham Stallions at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, March 30th, at 3PM ET)

Stallions (-7), -380 ML, O/U 41

There is one universal rule of Spring Football: do not bet against the Birmingham Stallions. You return the best coach in the league, the former USFL MVP, with great backup and pretty much every piece that made you special in 2024? It is difficult to imagine a world where they do not win the league title again, let alone win the USFL conference. This is their world, and so far, the rest of the league is just living in it.

Up until very recently, coaching was one of D.C.'s best strengths. Now, that very much remains to be seen. Having Ta'amu with Sanders waiting in the wings, Abram Smith, and Ty Scott is encouraging, and they absolutely have one of the best fanbases/home field advantages in the UFL, but nothing typically proves to be enough against Birmingham. Expect a final score range of 27-14 to 35-17, so go crazy with the Stallions and favor the over on the strength of Birmingham alone.

Parlays this Week:

Battlehawks -6, Stallions -7 (+272)

Brahmas ML, Panthers ML (+155)

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