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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC Fight Night, Leon Edwards v. Belal Muhammad. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
After a long time away from the cage, Leon Edwards is back in action at UFC Fight Night 187. Will ring rust play a factor against the active Belal Muhammad?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who will be able to become one of the top welterweight contenders in the UFC.
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UFC Fight Night 187: Fighter Backgrounds
It will be over 600 days since Leon Edwards last fought. Ranked third in the UFC's welterweight rankings, Edwards' path to get to this fight has been quite a ride.
Making his MMA debut in 2011, Edwards joined the UFC in 2014. He went 2-2 in his first four fights with the promotion, one of those losses coming against current UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman. Following that loss, Edwards would start an impressive eight-fight win streak. Some of those wins came from the likes of Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Gunnar Nelson. His last fight was a unanimous decision win over Rafael dos Anjos in 2019.
Signing a multi-fight contract, Edwards was meant to face former UFC Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley in March 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, however, that fight was scrapped. After months of inactivity and questions over who he would be facing, the UFC finally picked rising star Khamzat Chimaev to face Edwards. Both fighters tested positive for COVID, which delayed their initial bout in December 2020. The rescheduled fight in January was nixed due to Chimaev dealing with lasting issues from COVID and would be the same reason their scheduled March bout was nixed.
Fighting out of Chicago, Muhammad made his MMA debut in 2012. Competing for Hoosier Fight Club, Bellator, and Titan FC, Muhammad would win the Titan FC Welterweight Title in 2016. He would end up joining the UFC that year. Going 1-2 in his first three contests, Muhammad would end up on a four-fight win streak against fighters like Tim Means and Randy Brown.
After losing to Geoff Neal to start 2019, Muhammad has gone on another four-fight win streak. He beat Curtis Millender and Takashi Sato and returned to action this past June to beat Lyman Good. Muhammad impressed against Dhiego Lima at UFC 258 this past February, even after testing positive for COVID-19 before the bout.
UFC Fight Night 187: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook at this time has Edwards as a -265 favorite and Muhammad as a +215 underdog. Seeing how time away could be a factor in this fight, are the odds truly in Edwards’ favor?
On paper, Muhammad has a significant advantage when it comes to striking. He comes into this fight with about a 4.86 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute mark, compared to about 2.53 for Edwards. Both are about even in Significant Striking Accuracy, with Edwards leading ever so slightly, 47% to 43%. Muhammad is known to take damage, with 4.03 significant strikes absorbed per minute, compared to 2.05 (tied third in the welterweight division) for Edwards.
In his last four fights, Muhammad has landed 426 strikes, 307 of them significant. Edwards has landed 484 shots in his last four, 249 of them significant.
Something to keep an eye on is the fight within the clinch. Both are very tactical fighters. Edwards has a grappling ability that can suck his opponents in with no escape. Any defensive lapse will be caught and used against an opponent. Edwards has landed 17 takedowns during his eight-fight win streak and is very effective with head shots, landing 26 in his last three fights.
Muhammad, however, is also an efficient fighter in the clinch. He has landed eight takedowns during his four-fight win streak, and 17 head strikes in the clinch. As seen in his fight with Lima, Muhammad can press forward and suffocate his opponent. Landing volume shots, Muhammad looks to tire out his opponent.
If the fight went to the ground, it would be a battle of who wants it more. Edwards has been known to land heavy head strikes on the floor, but given the opportunity, Muhammad can answer right back.
Will the fact that Louis Taylor, Edwards’ coach since he started fighting, will not be in his corner due to a positive COVID test, be a factor? It is hard to say, but Muhammad will look to keep his composure and continue to focus. The idea of rust for Edwards is also a factor.
Muhammad is quickly climbing up the ranks in the welterweight division. As fresh as one can be for this fight, it is not hard to think he can tire out Edwards, who hasn’t fought in a long time. Time waits for no man, and we could see that come into play this weekend in Las Vegas.
Prediction: Muhammad via unanimous decision
