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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC 259, Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
There are three title fights taking place at UFC 259, and one of those fights features a newly-crowned champion v. a contender hungry for gold. What can we expect to see when Petr Yan defends the UFC Bantamweight Title against Aljamain Sterling?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who will be walking out of the octagon as champion.
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UFC 259: Fighter Backgrounds
At 28, Yan has managed to take over the UFC in a relatively short amount of time. Making his MMA debut in 2013, the Tiger Muay Thai fighter won the ACB Bantamweight Title in 2015. Yan made his UFC debut in 2018. He is 7-0 with the promotion and is currently on a ten-fight win streak.
Yan would win three fights in 2019; against John Dobson, Jimmie Rivera, and Urijah Faber. The win against Faber was via a swift head kick KO. After calling his shot, Yan would then face Jose Aldo for the vacant UFC Bantamweight Title following Henry Cejudo's retirement. After controlling the fight, Yan was able to break Aldo and win at UFC 251 via TKO last July for the title.
This is a long time coming for Sterling, ranked first in the UFC's bantamweight rankings. “Funk Master” is a two-time NCAA Division III All-American and made his MMA debut in 2011. Fighting for Cage Fury Fighting Championships, Sterling won the CFFC Bantamweight Title. Sterling would join the UFC in 2014 and would go on a four-fight win streak. He is 11-3 with the promotion.
Going 2-2 from 2016-2017, Sterling had his winning streak snapped by a vicious Marlon Moraes knee in December 2017. After recovering from the loss, Sterling has gone 5-0, with big wins over Rivera and Pedro Munhoz. He would then undergo surgery to fix a nagging injury. Returning to action, Sterling took out Cory Sandhagen via submission at UFC 250 in June, cementing himself as the true contender.
UFC 259: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook at this time has both Sterling and Yan at -110. It is a fight that might be too close for comfort, as anything can happen. Can the overall stats help us pick out a winner?
When it comes to Significant Strikes Landed per Minute, Yan (about 6.32) has the advantage over Sterling (about 4.82). Yan has a +3.07 striking differential, which is ranked first in the bantamweight division. His boxing is dominant, as combinations are the name of the game. They are about dead even when it comes to Significant Striking Accuracy with 50%. The same could be said for Striking Defense; 63% for Yan and 66% for Sterling.
Sterling is a busier striker, but when he takes someone down, he rarely will let go. He averages 1.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a +2.82 striking differential. That is ranked third all-time within the division. Sterling’s movement is also something to keep an eye on, as he can keep it nice and clean until he wants to get dirty. The Long Island native can hit the body and go for the swift takedown, submitting an opponent as he did against Sandhagen. He can also switch stances at any moment.
Speaking of power, Yan has landed 480 strikes in his last four fights, 384 of them significant. 258 total and 194 significant strikes landed against Aldo. Sterling has landed 377 total strikes in his last four, with 310 of them significant. Yan has a clinch advantage, especially when it comes to body and head shots. One can’t forget, however, about Sterling’s magnetic wrestling ability. Sterling’s pocket presence is also something to keep an eye on.
Both fighters like to scramble from off the back, which can result in an extreme amount of pain for any opponent.
The sportsbook has a hard time giving either fighter an edge, and rightfully so. Both are in the prime of their careers, and all outcomes are on the table. If Yan can find his power right away, it could be game over. However, if Sterling can work his way around the octagon, bring Yan down, and work him from the back, we could see a new champion walk out of Las Vegas.
Don’t forget that Sterling’s recent surgery has helped his grappling ability. His last fight proved that and that was his first bout back. If it continues to develop, Sterling’s hand getting raised will seem like a likely outcome.
Prediction: Sterling via submission (round three)
