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Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
There are three title fights taking place at UFC 259, and one of those fights features a current champion looking to make history. What can we expect to see when Jan Blachowicz defends the UFC Light Heavyweight Title against UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining if one champion retains or another can hold two belts by the end of the night.
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UFC 259: Fighter Backgrounds
A judo and Polish BJJ Champion, Blachowicz made his MMA debut in 2007. The 38-year-old competed in KSW's inaugural tournament and won the 2007 Light Heavyweight Tournament. He would win again in 2008 and 2010. As a reward for winning the 2010 tournament, Blachowicz earned the right to fight for the KSW Light Heavyweight Title. While he lost to Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou in 2011, Blachowicz was able to win the rematch just a few months later.
Defending the title twice, Blachowicz would amass a 17-2 record for the promotion.
Joining the UFC in 2014, Blachowicz started his run in the octagon with a 2-4 record. After his loss to Patrick Cummins at UFC 210, Blachowicz has gone 8-1 in his last nine fights. Thiago Santos ended a four-fight win streak, but he rebounded by beating Luke Rockhold, Ronaldo Souza, Corey Anderson, and Dominick Reyes. Three of those four wins were by way of knockout, and the Reyes win resulted inBlachowicz becoming UFC Light Heavyweight Champion.
One of the most colorful figures in MMA, Adesanya started his combat sports career as a kickboxer. He was able to win over 70+ matches, several of them with King in the Ring and GLORY. Adesanya then transitioned to MMA full-time in 2012. “The Last Stylebender” won the AFC Middleweight Title in 2017 and joined the UFC in 2018. In his short time with the company (nine fights in the octagon), Adesanya is undefeated. He has four wins via some form of knockout.
The 31-year-old opened a lot of eyes with a TKO win over Derek Brunson. His next fight was against a man he idolizes in Anderson Silva. In a bout that was a game of mirroring your opponent, Adesanya beat Silva via unanimous decision. Facing Kelvin Gastelum for the interim UFC Middleweight Title, Adesanya had an amazing comeback that earned him the win. It was a true test of his capabilities. He then took care of Robert Whittaker to become the undisputed champion. After a fight that didn't prove much against Yoel Romero, Adesanya mowed down Paulo Costa last September via TKO, successfully defending the title for a second time.
Adesanya is now looking to become the seventh fighter in UFC history to become a champion in multiple divisions, and the fifth to hold them both at the same time.
UFC 259: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Adesanya as a -230 favorite with Blachowicz a +185 underdog. As a result of Blachowicz having the ultimate power at his disposal, can that be enough to prove the odds wrong?
When it comes to offensive output, Adesaya has the advantage in Significant Strikes Landed per Minute with over 4.10. Blachowicz averages 3.49, which is still impressive. They are about dead even when it comes to Significant Striking Accuracy, with Adesanya at 50% and Blachowicz at 48%. In his last four fights, Blachowicz has landed 185 total strikes, with 155 of them significant. The majority of his shots are to the body, and his head shots can result in a fatality for anyone. From the Gastelum title fight on, Adesanya has landed 262 strikes, with 252 of them significant.
Not only can Blachowicz punch, but he is a methodical fighter. He has an advantage in Average Takedowns (1.10) and Takedown Accuracy (52%), while Adesanya has a blank statement on that end. Adesanya, however, does have an 86% Takedown Defense mark, something to keep an eye on. While Adesanya has attempted to test fighters on the ground, it is still unknown how he can handle that pressure. That is especially true with a ground-based fighter like Blachowicz.
The thing about Adesanya, however, is his plan to mimic his opponent to adapt in a fight. Adjusting to the same plan could dictate whether it is a competitive fight (Ortega) or one to forget (Romero).
Anything can happen in this bout, from a Polish Power knockout to a performance of a lifetime-type effort from Adesanya. Bound to be entertaining, only one can come out on top. Adesanya has talked the talk, can he walk the walk and make history?
Prediction: Adesanya via TKO (round four)
