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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC 259, Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
There are three title fights taking place at UFC 259, and one of those fights features a champ-champ. Amanda Nunes, the UFC Featherweight and Bantamweight Champion, will be putting the former title on the line against Megan Anderson. What can we expect between a former champion in Anderson and a history-making one in Nunes?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who can win a bout that has a lot on the line.
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UFC 259: Fighter Backgrounds
Nunes’ run in MMA, especially in the UFC, has been something to behold. Losing her MMA debut in 2008, the BJJ star would win six in a row, including one against former Bellator champion Julia Budd. "The Lioness" had a run in Strikeforce and went 1-1 in Invicta FC. Joining the UFC in 2013, Nunes won two in a row, another notable win against Germaine de Randamie. Nunes lost a bout to Cat Zingano, which propelled Zingano to a UFC Bantamweight Title fight.
Nunes hasn’t looked back after that loss.
Since 2015, Nunes is 11-0, beating the likes of Shayna Baszler, Sara McMann, and Valentina Shevchenko before earning a title shot. She dominated Miesha Tate at UFC 200 for the UFC Bantamweight Title, submitting Tate after cutting her open. Her next fight was a bludgeoning of former champion Ronda Rousey, cementing herself as the true, unquestioned champion. From there, Nunes won a close and controversial fight against Shevchenko and then beat Raquel Pennington via TKO.
Nunes ended up in a league of her own after beating Cris Cyborg for the UFC Featherweight Title in record time at UFC 232. Not done at bantamweight, Nunes then beat Holly Holm at her own game via TKO to defend the title. She also grounded de Randamie for another successful defense. The 32-year-old last fought at UFC 250 in June, beating Felicia Spencer to retain the UFC Featherweight Title. By doing so, she became the first two-division champion in UFC history to defend both belts while holding onto them.
In Nunes' way is the 31-year-old Megan Anderson. A member of the Australian Army, Anderson made her MMA debut in 2013. She also lost her first fight and then went on a four-fight win streak. Anderson joined Invicta FC in 2015, going 4-1 with the promotion. She ended up winning the interim Invicta FC Featherweight Title before becoming the undisputed champion.
Joining the UFC in 2018, Anderson jumped right into the fire by facing Holm at UFC 225. A former UFC Bantamweight Champion, Holm beat Anderson via unanimous decision. Anderson rebounded with a win against Cat Zingano but lost her momentum against Felicia Spencer. The Glory MMA fighter is on a two-fight win streak, beating Zarah Fairn Dos Santos via submission and Norma Dumont Viana via KO. The last fight's blow was the winning ticket for contendership.
UFC 259: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Nunes as a -1250 favorite over Anderson (+750). It is the largest odds difference of Nunes’ career. Anderson is one of the only credible fighters within a division with no other challengers. Could that be a factor as to why Nunes has a significant advantage?
To start things off, Nunes has the edge offensively with about 4.44 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute. In her short amount of time in the octagon, Anderson averages 1.82. Nunes has thirteen wins via knockout, while Anderson has six. They are fairly even when it comes to Significant Striking Accuracy, with Nunes at 51% and Anderson at 46%. Nunes also has a Significant Strike Defense of 57%, with Anderson at 38%. Nunes has been able to avoid as much damage as possible throughout her streak.
Anderson may have power, but Nunes’ quickness cannot be denied. In her last five fights, Nunes has landed 513 total strikes, 357 of them significant. Anderson has landed 110 strikes, 49 of them significant.
One thing Anderson has over Nunes is height. Standing at over 6 feet, Nunes (5’8) will have to keep her distance to avoid Anderson's long kicks. To her credit, however, Nunes has been known to strike down the leg and land rapid punches to an unbalanced opponent. With a shaky defense, Anderson will take more punches than most, which could either tire Nunes or backfire on her completely.
Unless there is a left from out of nowhere, or Nunes makes a small mistake, Anderson’s chances may be exactly how the sportsbook puts it. Nunes looks comfortable at featherweight, and the new mom may look to prove her dominance yet again.
Prediction: Nunes via TKO (round two)
