What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 215. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 142-73).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC 215.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Jeremy Stephens vs Gilbert Melendez
The main card starts out with two aging veterans, who have a combined 3-9 record in their last 12 fights. Both fighters come with tremendous power, but they also both enter the octagon with great chins. Melendez is the more active striker, while Stephens is a bit more efficient. Stephens also comes with more power in his punches. Both fighters come with solid grappling credentials, so this fight will likely stay standing. Meledez could land more strikes in this fight, but Stephens’ strikes will result in more damage, which will sway the judges.
Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision
Ilir Latifi vs Tyson Pedro
Latifi has been in the UFC long enough that we know what we are getting with him. He’s a powerful striker that uses wrestling to control his fights. He has only lost to high-level competition in the UFC, as well. Pedro is a bit more of an unknown. He is 2-0 in the UFC, but he was dropped against Khalil Rountree before landing a takedown and finishing him via submission. He then looked outstanding against Paul Craig, as he worked his way into a crucifix position to win by TKO. Pedro will not be able to overpower Latifi in the same fashion he did with Craig and he will not win if the fight gets to the ground as easy as he did against Rountree. This is too big of a step up in competition for Pedro, and Latifi is going to solidify his spot in the top-10 this weekend.
Ilir Latifi, TKO, 2nd Round
Neil Magny vs Rafael Dos Anjos
This fight is a sleeper contender for Fight of the Night. Magny has found plenty of success in the UFC, compiling an 11-2 record since 2014. Dos Anjos, on the other hand, was an elite lightweight before winning a unanimous decision against Tarec Saffiedine in his welterweight debut. Dos Anjos has the grappling advantage in this fight, but the majority of it will likely play out on the feet. Magny is a slightly more accurate fighter and he will have a ridiculous 10-inch reach advantage. If Magny can keep Dos Anjos on the outside, he should find a victory. That will be easier said than done, though, and Dos Anjos’ defense will be key in this fight. Dos Anjos has elite striking defense, giving him a slight advantage on the feet.
Rafael Dos Anjos via Unanimous Decision
Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko
We are finally going to get Nunes against Shevchenko for the title this weekend. These two have fought before, but it was only three rounds. Nunes won the first two rounds, giving her the decision win, but Shevchenko took over in the third round, and many believe if it were a five round fight, she would have easily won. With that being said, fighters train different for five round fights and Nunes did what she had to do to win. I expect Nunes to slow her pace down slightly in order have energy in the championship rounds. Nunes is the better striker at distance in this fight, while Shevchenko does most of her work in the clinch. Nunes failing to knockout Shevchenko in their first fight is concerning, but I believe Nunes is simply too powerful for Shevchenko to continuously eat her punches. Nunes also proved to be the much more threatening fighter on the ground, and she should edge out her opponent in a competitive fight.
Amanda Nunes, TKO, 2nd Round
Demetrious Johnson vs Ray Borg
I want to say that Borg has a chance to unseat the champion this weekend, but I simply do not believe that is true. He’s an impressive fighter, but at only 24 years old, he has yet to reach his prime. Johnson, on the other hand, has been fighting the best his division has to offer for the last five years. No one has truly come close to defeating him. Johnson is the more accurate and active striker. He also comes with better striking defense. He has better wrestling, as well, to go along with a more diverse submission game. This is not a question of if Johnson is going to win, but only how is he going to win.
Demetrious Johnson, TKO, 4th Round