Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Tyreek?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (foot) has been one of the most disappointing players of 2024. He was universally drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts and was seen as a sure-fire league-winning pick. Even in the case of an injury to starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, he was expected to be startable.

This has absolutely not been the case. He is just the WR44 on the season, and outside of one long touchdown play against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, he's been largely quiet. This is a shocking development for fantasy managers, but it starts to make more sense when you dive into the details. And some of the details are quite concerning.

So what's wrong with Reek? What are the reasons he hasn't been producing like a WR1? Will he be able to turn it around, or should we expect more of the same from the the star wideout?

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Problem One: The New Offense

Miami's offense now unequivocally runs through running back De'Von Achane. There were rumblings from beat writers coming out of training camp that Achane would essentially fill in the WR3 role for the team in addition to a significant job as the starting running back, but even his truthers didn't expect it to be this big.

de'Von achane carried the ball 10 times for a szn-high 97 yards in the #dolphins 28-27 loss to the cards. his 31 yards over expected & 7.1 yards after contact were both szn highs. (NGS)

achane also caught 6 of 8 targets for 50 yards & a TD. in total, he forced 8 missed tackles. pic.twitter.com/OGBxxEmdtr

— josh houtz (@houtz) October 30, 2024

This fact is less surprising when you watch Achane's tape. In games with Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback, he's been nearly unstoppable. He's racked up receiving numbers that would put him in the top-12 fantasy receivers on the season when his QB1 has been healthy. That's almost unheard of for an RB.

No. 28's prowess has allowed Miami to run a less turnover-prone offense while still generating explosive plays. It also makes sense to load-manage your 30-year old WR. The massive seasons he's put together in the past lead to a ton of wear and tear.

De'Von Achane's fantasy value is all the way back 🥹📈pic.twitter.com/i4sFtDyF5C

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) October 27, 2024

When you have a young player that can consistently turn passes thrown around the line of scrimmage into big gains or touchdowns, it makes sense to do whatever you can to get the ball into his hands. Explosive plays are much more difficult to rely on, especially when Reek has some alarming warning signals popping up.

Problem Two: Age, Or Injuries, Or Effort

It's always risky to draft a 30-year old player at the top of fantasy drafts. NFL players can fall off quickly -- a lifetime of bumps, bruises, hard hits, joint and ligament damage, and other ailments take a heavy toll on the human body. It's not that Hill isn't still a great player, but the decline has to come at some point.

I think this is my favorite play from Sunday: Zaven Collins winning a foot race from the line of scrimmage against Tyreek Hill.

DC Nick Rallis: “I was wondering if he hit some high speed there.” pic.twitter.com/1HCyShIuAG

— Theo Mackie (@theo_mackie) October 30, 2024

Reek has always relied on his unmatched explosiveness and speed to win on routes. He's not the savviest route runner, but his pure burst and explosion made him nearly impossible to cover. Usually, that's a trait that fades sooner rather than later. It may finally be No. 10's time to have his decline.

He reached a maximum speed of 20.27 MPH on his 80-yard touchdown catch in Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He used to be a mainstay of Next Gen Stats list of fastest ball carriers on the season, but he has yet to beat that mark. Failing to run even 21 MPH is a big red flag.

Even players who have run 40-yard dashes in the 4.5-4.6 range are often able to exceed 21 MPH. So it's incredibly alarming to see Reek fail to reach this threshold. All NFL careers have to end at some point.

Its perposterous how fast Tyreek hill is. He is having to actively deploy the brakes to stay in the mix pic.twitter.com/coAF7qaIsc

— PFT Commenter (@PFTCommenter) December 25, 2022

In previous years, even when he wasn't the one catching the ball and running for long touchdowns, there were mountains of evidence that he had ludicrous acceleration and high-end speed. His fellow WR, Jaylen Waddle, is one of the fastest players in the NFL as well, but Hill had no issue catching up with him as he was running full sprint.

We haven't seen much of that this year. It's possible that the effort isn't quite there, but that would be surprising, considering he's fully capable of earning another large contract if his level of play remained consistent with previous years. He could also be nursing an injury -- however, some injuries never go away, and simply worsen past a certain age.

No Tyreek Hill at practice today. He's been nursing a foot injury from last week.

— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) October 30, 2024

It's worth speculating whether his foot problem -- or another issue -- are slowing him down, in which case, he could potentially recover and be nearly as fast as he was before.

Will Tyreek Hill Turn It Around?

It's true that the wheels fall off for every player at some point. Most NFL players retire because they are cut due to not winning competitions with other players for spots on the active roster or practice squad, or their bodies simply can't take the punishment any more. Getting older spares no one.

WE’RE NOT EVEN 10 MINUTES INTO SUNDAY AND TYREEK HILL HAS 12.4 POINTS 🐆 pic.twitter.com/0PcmfXSfwU

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) September 24, 2023

The falloff being as hard as Next Gen Stats and the fantasy scoring seems to imply that it is is at least a little bit fishy, though. There could easily be something else at play -- injuries or effort, which have been mentioned, could be the culprits. However, even ignoring that, there are signs of pessimism.

Even with Tagovailoa back in the lineup, the offense has not looked as productive for their receivers. Their production was dismal from Weeks 3-7, when Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley were throwing passes. However, the QB1 played deep into the third quarter of the Bills game in Week 2.

Harrison JR: 1 catch 4 yards
Tyreek Hill: 3 catches 24 yards
Waddle: 4 catches 41 yards

Just imagine if the Bills had good corners https://t.co/2nfWei1v3p

— Bills Chat Podcast (@BillsChatPod) September 13, 2024

Hill still did virtually nothing in that game. Sure, Buffalo has had Miami's number defensively for some time now, and No. 10 has had his fair share of poor performances, as every receiver does, but the day was shockingly poor nonetheless.

It may be time for fantasy managers to re-adjust their expectations for Reek this season. While he could still finish as a WR1, the consistently absurd league-winning numbers he put up just one year ago could permanently relics of the past.

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