RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~97 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~104
ANALYSIS: A.J. Brown was traded during the first round of the NFL Draft and the Titans immediately selected his replacement, who just so happens to be someone many people is a clone of himself, Treylon Burks.
The Titans also signed Austin Hooper and traded for Robert Woods. The former Ram is working hard to be ready for the 2022 season after tearing his ACL in the middle of last year. At this time, it’s fair to expect Burks to be the primary option in the receiving game.
This was the role Brown found himself in for three seasons and he never once hit 110 targets in a season. In the past five seasons, the Titans have never ranked higher than 26th in total pass attempts. The volume is a legitimate concern.
Head coach Mike Vrabel has built an old-school type of football team and to his credit, it’s worked. They play good defense, they run the football at an elite level, and they control the clock. That philosophy is not going to change.
It didn’t even change last season when Derrick Henry got hurt. It’s certainly not going to change this season with Brown in Philadelphia. Brown has finished just one season in the top-24 in half-PPR PPG and it took elite efficiency to do it.
If Woods isn’t healthy to start the season, Burks has a better chance to see the kind of target share he needs to be an impact player for fantasy managers as a rookie. Brown averaged just 5.83 targets per game as a rookie, which would leave Burks with just 100 on the season. That will not be enough.
He’ll need to get up to seven targets per game, which would leave him with 119. If he’s able to reach that mark, he has the potential to break into the top 24.
After London, Burks has the next best chance of being a top-24 player as a rookie, and the drop-off after these three – Hall, London, and Burks – is fairly substantial in terms of their likelihood of providing fantasy managers with that type of top-24 season. Burks has, by all accounts, struggled throughout training camp, but fantasy managers shouldn't lose hope. He's an immensely talented player and there's plenty of opportunity in Tennessee. It may be a slow start, but there's no reason he can't turn it on late.
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