RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 240
CURRENT ADP: ~260 overall
ANALYSIS: While it was a tale of two seasons for Trey Mancini before and after his trade to Houston, the pull rate numbers showed growth throughout 2022. While Statcast has him for a 40.9% pull rate, FanGraphs has a 45% mark, both of which are easily career highs. He also had a career-high 39.1% flyball rate, up from his 31.6% rate for his career, so pulling the ball in the air appeared to be a clear part of his game plan.
It worked in Baltimore as Mancini had a 43.8% pull rate and a 38.2% FB rate before the trade. he also rocked a triple slash of .268/.346/.403 with 10 home runs and a 21.4% strikeout rate. Granted, there was a .324 BABIP, but nothing supported the nosedive he took when he got to Houston, hitting .176/.258/.364 with a 26.3% strikeout rate. In Houston, he also had a 40.7% flyball rate and 45% pull rate, which may have increased as he tried to reach the Crawford boxes in left field.
What we have is a career .265 hitter who had four straight seasons of 20+ home runs moving away from a park in Camden Yards that was 26th last year in Park Factors when it comes to right-handed pull power for home runs. While Wrigley Field was only 21st last year, that's an improvement in regards to power. We're looking at a hitter in the middle of a decent lineup who should hit .250 or higher with 20+ home runs as he trades a bit of batting average for pull-side power. Given that he's also 1B/OF eligible, Mancini makes for an intriguing target in the middle of drafts.
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