RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 230
CURRENT ADP: ~245 overall
ANALYSIS: Rogers is definitely a guy who I think qualifies as a bounce-back candidate. He's just a year removed from a 2021 campaign where he finished with a 2.64 ERA across 25 starts for Miami. Was that season just a complete mirage? I don't think so, though his ERA was probably close to a run too low for his underlying numbers.
The thing is Rogers seemed to show some signs of reverting to his 2021 form late in the year. His ERA didn't reflect that, but in his final 23 innings pitched in 2022, he raised the K% to 28% while cutting the walk rate down to 6%. He still got BABIP'ed pretty badly at a .356 clip but his xFIP for those last several starts was just 2.75.
Both his changeup (13%) and slider (16%) had good swinging strike rates. If he did, in fact, fix his release point, it could go a long way towards helping him trend back towards a 50% GB rate. He induced only 42% of ground balls last season.
He has the stuff to be an effective starter, but he just doesn't have the same margin for error that a hard thrower has in terms of needing to locate his fastball to set up his offspeed stuff. I like his chances of having a solid 2023 campaign with an ERA somewhere in the mid-to-high threes with a strikeout-per-inning upside. I agree with our RotoBaller ranking that his ADP is far too low.
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