Trevor Richards (SP, MIA) - Week 13 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues

OWNED IN: 29% of All Leagues

ANALYSIS: Even after a strong start against St. Louis - in which he struck out eight Cardinals over 5.2 innings, scattering four hits and giving up only one run - Trevor Richards is still available in 70% of leagues. But with a two-start week on the horizon, both coming at home in spacious Marlins Park, Richards ownership is sure to rise quickly. Like many of his rotation-mates, Richards is quietly putting up quality numbers on a bad Marlins team and continues to make a case for leaving behind his streamer label. He has given up one or fewer runs in five of his last six starts.

Richards two opponents this week - Washington and Philadelphia - are heavy on name value, but have actually been mediocre against right-handed pitchers this year, both posting an 88 wRC+ and .310 wOBA against them. Of the two, it's the Nationals who may pose the biggest threat to Richard's pitch mix - 40% of a changeup that is very, very good and 40% of a fastball that is very, very bad - as they have a 4.7 pitch-value against the change and a 30.2 against fastballs that is seventh-best in the league. Against Philadelphia, Richards gets a team that has struggled against the fastball, so perhaps his will be able to play better than the 6.06 xFIP that it's allowed this year.

While Richards's value may ultimately be limited by his weak fastball, the changeup is so good - with a 17.9% SwStr% and an almost 28% K-rate - that his strike-out upside should keep him roster-worthy for now. Grab him this week for the 12+ strikeout potential, with an eye on keeping him if he continues to unlock the power of change.