RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~112 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~132
ANALYSIS: In 2022, Lawrence finished as the QB12 with an 18.3 PPG average. He did that despite finishing 18th in touchdown rate. He was seventh in pass attempts, eighth in red zone pass attempts, and eighth in expected passing touchdowns, but he finished just 18th in touchdown rate. His expected passing touchdowns were 30.5, but he finished with just 25. Lawrence left some meat on the bone and still finished as a top-12 quarterback.
This past season many people have put together a mix tape of all the near-miss touchdowns between Lawrence and his pass-catchers. In the particular one below, there are 15. Some are Lawrence’s fault for waiting a bit too long. Some are clear drops. Some of the receivers failed to get two feet down. But if just half of them go Lawrence’s way, he has seven more touchdowns and would finish with 28. If just 26% went his way, he’d have four more touchdowns and finish with 25. Take a look for yourself…
Trevor Lawrence near miss touchdowns pic.twitter.com/3tl8vK3VT5
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 9, 2024
We’re going to stay in 2023 for a little bit longer. Lawrence was banged up last season. He played through multiple ailments. On October 15, he suffered a knee bruise. On December 4, he sustained a high ankle sprain. On December 17, he was placed in concussion protocol. On December 24, he sprained his A/C joint in his throwing shoulder. On top of his injuries, Christian Kirk missed five games, and Zay Jones missed eight.
Looking forward to 2024, Lawrence may have the best collection of pass-catchers he’s ever had. Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, and Gabriel Davis are a fantastic foursome, and their skills complement each other well. Davis and Thomas will work the intermediate to deep part of the field, while Kirk and Engram work in the short to intermediate part. Lawrence will have plenty of options. They’ve also upgraded their offensive line with the free-agent signing of center Mitch Morse.
Lawrence also has some sneaky rushing upside. Since 2022, he ranks eighth among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 630 and fourth in rushing touchdowns with nine. Along with the bonus of rushing value, Lawrence has also thrown the fourth-most passes since 2022. He’s an above-average rushing quarterback with elite passing volume. He’s healthy. He’s received upgrades in his offensive line and his pass-catchers.
On top of that, he’s due for some major positive regression in the touchdown department and his deep ball completion percentage, as evidenced above. No quarterback has been hurt by dropped passes more than Lawrence in the past few years. Consider for a second, what if Lawrence’s touchdown and dropped passes bad luck regresses to the mean? Now, take one tiny step further: what if Lawrence’s bad luck regarding touchdowns and dropped passes doesn’t just revert to average luck but good luck? What if the touchdowns run hot?
No QB suffered more because of drops last season than Trevor Lawrence 📉 https://t.co/UZW0MBSqwX pic.twitter.com/mESqZsQCuZ
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) June 14, 2024
Last year, 61.6% of offensive touchdowns were via the pass. 38.4% were via the run. In 2023, Jacksonville had just 56.4% of their touchdowns scored via the pass. There are countless examples to buy into Lawrence throwing more touchdowns in 2024. The best part, he's already shown us what he's capable of. From Weeks 10-17 in 2022, he averaged 21.0 PPG and was QB5 during this stretch. From Weeks 11-17 this past season, he averaged 21.5 PPG and was QB6. Due to injuries and bad luck, it hasn't all been put together for one season, but the upside is there. He's shown it to us. It was just in 2022 that he finished as the QB12. Fantasy managers have a significant buying opportunity.
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