NFL Rookie Spotlight - Trevor Lawrence

Ever since he became the starting quarterback at Clemson four games into his true freshman season, it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that Trevor Lawrence would be the first overall pick in the NFL draft as soon as he was eligible. That assumption became a reality during the 2021 NFL draft, with Lawrence getting selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars and their new head coach Urban Meyer.

Lawrence was one of the more prolific college quarterbacks in recent years, leading Clemson to three appearances in the College Football Playoff and winning one national championship. Lawrence led explosive passing offenses in his two-plus years as a starter, and while he never won a Heisman award, he was a finalist in his last two seasons (including a runner-up finish in 2020 to DeVonta Smith).

There has been an influx of talent at the quarterback position through the draft in recent years and a new order of young signal-callers is taking over the league. Despite all that talent, Lawrence has been viewed as the best young quarterback in college the last three years and a virtual lock for NFL success. The question is: can he meet the exceedingly high expectations he enters the NFL with?

College Production

Trevor Lawrence entered college as one of the greatest high school quarterbacks ever and immediately justified that praise. Lawrence played in 15 games as a true freshman and led Clemson to a national title, handing Nick Saban his worst loss as the head coach of Alabama. Lawrence was the National Freshman player of the year, completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 3,280 yards and 30 touchdowns with four interceptions. Despite that production, Lawrence statistically improved each season at Clemson.

Lawrence may not have topped his statistics from his sophomore to his junior year, but that can be chalked up to a COVID positive test that cost him two games in the middle of the season. Still, Lawrence set high marks in completion percentage and passing yards per attempt while pacing himself to throw for more yards and touchdowns despite playing in a 12-game college season. It’s worth noting that despite his impressive statistics, Lawrence was relatively loose with the ball at times, likely because he knew he had the arm strength to take chances. Lawrence accounted for 17 career interceptions and 10 fumbles (seven lost) during his career at Clemson.

Trevor Lawrence was known for his arm in college, but he also needs to be respected for his ability to run the ball. Lawrence totaled 231 carries for 943 yards (4.1 per carry) and 18 touchdowns in his 40 career games. Lawrence ran a 4.78 40-yard dash at his pro day workout, which is pretty impressive for a 6’6, 220-pound quarterback.

While nobody will confuse Lawrence for a rushing quarterback in the mold of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, or Josh Allen, Lawrence has the athleticism to gain yards on the ground and score in the red zone.

Rookie Year Situation

Despite putting together a 1-15 record under Doug Marrone in 2020, the Jaguars have a solid roster base. The coaching staff was fired after that season and replaced with Urban Meyer as head coach and Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator. Meyer was known for explosive offenses in the college ranks, but it is safe to assume there will be a learning curve translating his offense to the NFL. The good news is Meyer and Bevell will have plenty of talent to play around with heading into 2021.

Jacksonville will return all five of their starting offensive linemen from 2020, including former second-round picks at tackle in Cam Robinson (2017) and Jawaan Taylor (2019). Jacksonville also returns two of their three leading receivers from last season in D.J. Chark Jr. (53 receptions on 93 targets for 706 yards and five touchdowns) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (55 receptions on 88 targets for 600 yards and five touchdowns) and their leading rusher James Robinson (240 carries for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns plus 49 receptions on 60 targets for 344 yards and three touchdowns).

Despite this, Jacksonville took steps to upgrade their skill positions this offseason. They signed Marvin Jones Jr., Phillip Dorsett, Jamal Agnew, and Pharoh Cooper at wide receiver to provide depth and explosive playmaking at the position. They also gave a free agent contract to running back Carlos Hyde to provide a backup for James Robinson.

In the draft, Meyer and the Jaguars continued to add playmakers to their offense. Jacksonville used their second first-round pick to add Lawrence’s teammate from college, running back Travis Etienne. They also used a second-round pick on tackle Walker Little, a fifth-round pick on tight end Luke Farrell, a sixth-round pick on wide receiver Jalen Camp, and added Tim Jones and Josh Imatorbhebhe as rookie free agents. Etienne will have a major impact starting on day one as a running back and receiver for Urban Meyer and has the ability to break big plays at any moment. Farrell will be competing with Chris Manhertz and James O'Shaughnessy for tight-end reps and could make an impact as the season goes on.

Lawrence will have a wealth of options to utilize in his rookie season and gets to play for a head coach that was innovative at the college level and utilized spread offensive concepts and a high pace of play to attack opposing defenses.

Fantasy Outlook

Ultimately, Lawrence finds himself in a unique position heading into his rookie season. He will be the unquestioned starter in Jacksonville and walks into a situation that has an impressive amount of talent despite coming off a one-win season. Beyond that, Jacksonville is coming off a season where they ranked 31st in the NFL in defensive DVOA, according to FootballOutsiders.com. Jacksonville attempted to upgrade their defense through the draft and free agency, but they are still very much a work in progress. That’s great news for Lawrence as a fantasy asset: if Jacksonville is playing from behind, he is going to be throwing the football.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Lawrence throw for over 4,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns in his first season in the NFL. With his ability to run the ball when necessary, he also provides a solid rushing floor that could see him net several hundred yards and multiple touchdowns on the ground as well.

In redraft leagues, Lawrence has immediate QB1 upside heading into the 2021 season. According to NFFC ADP, Lawrence is currently a top-100 pick, and QB15 being drafted. Lawrence is one of two rookie quarterbacks guaranteed to start 17 games this season (assuming full health) and is well worth that draft capital. He's a solid choice if you choose to wait at the quarterback position or he makes a high upside QB2 for any fantasy roster this year.

In dynasty leagues, Lawrence is a definite first-round pick. From a SuperFlex or 2QB standpoint, he should be considered the 1.01 pick. In single quarterback leagues, he is worthy of a late first-round pick given the drop-off in talent or situation by other players in the NFL draft.

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