X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers - Fantasy Impact

Trevor Bauer signed with the Dodgers ahead of the 2021 MLB season. Michael Grennell examines his fantasy baseball value, his 2021 outlook and where to draft him.

The biggest domino in this year's free agent market has finally toppled, as Trevor Bauer is taking his talents to Los Angeles for the next three years with the Dodgers. It'll be a return to familiar territory for the reigning NL Cy Young winner, as he returns not only to where he grew up but he will also be pitching just 20 miles away from where he used to play as a starter at UCLA.

He's coming off the best season of his career, but there is the question as to whether or not he can replicate those numbers in LA. Over the last four years Bauer has put up his two best single-season performances, but in the other two years of that span his performances fell much closer to his career averages. Considering the fact Bauer is currently the fourth pitcher coming off draft boards with an ADP of 16, managers are going to want to make sure that he will be worth that draft capital this season.

There's no question that Bauer will make an impact in fantasy one way or another, it's just a matter of whether managers will be happy with where they drafted him or if they will be wishing they had left him on the board.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

A Tale of Two Trevors

Before we go any further we have to agree that we should take Bauer's 2020 campaign with a grain of salt. Yes, that fact applies to everyone from last year given all the weird quirks that occurred, but with Bauer in particular he probably couldn't have had a much easier schedule if he tried. These were his opponents over his 11 starts in 2020:

Tigers, Tigers, Brewers, Royals, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Cubs, Pirates, White Sox, Brewers

Five of these six teams ranked in the bottom-11 in the league in runs scored per game (White Sox were the exception). All six of these teams had strikeout rates over 24 percent, and the Tigers, Cubs and Brewers accounted for three of the four highest team strikeout rates in the majors. Now this isn't to say that Bauer couldn't have had a great year without all the COVID changes that occurred, but it sure helps his stat line when he gets to beat up on below-.500 teams in eight of his 11 starts.

OK, Bauer likely had his numbers inflated from a soft schedule, but he still had to pitch well against them. Bauer allowed only one run in two starts against the Tigers while Luis Castillo was tagged for five runs in one start against Detroit. Good pitchers still need to show up against bad teams, so maybe Bauer's 2020 campaign isn't a complete fluke. But even if we don't completely write off 2020 as a mirage, there's still the fact that Bauer has not shown much consistency over the last couple years:

Year ERA xERA WHIP K% BB%
2017 4.19 4.42 1.367 26.2 8
2018 2.21 2.82 1.089 30.8 7.9
2019 4.48 4.21 1.249 27.8 9
2020 1.73 2.17 0.795 36 6.1

The only thing that has really been consistent for Bauer over the last four years is his high-end strikeout rate. And that is a more recent development for Bauer as he previously owned a 21.4 percent strikeout rate over the first five seasons of his career. The increased strikeout rate can likely be explained away as a result of an increased usage of his slider and cutter, as they have gone from being among the least used pitches in his arsenal in 2016 to his second and third-most used pitches in 2020.

So the strikeouts seem legitimate, but what about the rest of the inconsistencies in his year-to-year numbers? It's possible that that could be a result of simply dealing with an increased workload over a full season. Check out his career splits between the first half of the season and the second half:

ERA WHIP K% BB% OPP BA OPP OBP OPP SLG
1st Half 3.64 1.249 25.3 9.1 0.231 0.308 0.375
2nd Half 4.65 1.366 24.1 9.4 0.253 0.333 0.43

As you can see, Bauer's numbers take a hit in the second half of the season throughout his career. With a shortened season last year, Bauer didn't have to deal with a second-half drop off. And then in 2018 — what had been the best season of his career prior to last year — Bauer missed over a month in late-August and early-September with a stress fracture in his leg. Granted, he still ended up with a nearly identical number of innings pitched from the season before (176.1 IP vs 175.1 IP), but given the fact that he was on pace to pitch over 200 innings before the injury and that his numbers took a dip across the board when he threw a career-high 213 innings in 2019, it's possible that his final numbers in 2018 could have been somewhat worse than where they ended up. Now all this doesn't necessarily mean that Bauer cannot deal with a high workload, but it is something that managers should take into consideration heading into the draft.

Alright enough about the past — what should managers expect from Bauer in 2021?

 

2021 Outlook

First and foremost, Bauer will be facing a tougher division for the next three years. Last year Dodgers divisional opponents hit .255 with a 22.1 percent strikeout rate and averaged 4.87 runs per game. Reds divisional opponents on the other hand hit .202 with a 25.1 percent strikeout rate and averaged 4.08 runs per game. He'll be facing tougher competition now even as some of his metrics are suggesting regression in his future.

One big indicator that his ERA could be taking a hit next year is his absurd 90.9 percent left-on-base rate he posted in 2020. It was the second-highest in the majors behind only Shane Bieber, and it was over 11 percent higher than his previous career-high and over 17 percent higher than his career average. High strikeout pitchers tend to have higher LOB percentages, but given how much of an outlier Bauer's 2020 rate is compared to his career along with his relatively consistent high strikeout rate over the last four years it seems likely that number will regress this year in Los Angeles and his ERA will be on the rise as a result.

Batters have also started making more solid contact over the past three years off Bauer, as he has become far more of a flyball pitcher than he had previously displayed. Here's a look at some of his Statcast numbers and batted ball rates since 2018:

Year Launch Angle Hard-Hit% Barrel% GB% FB% HR/FB
2018 12 29.1 3.7 44.5 34.4 0.062
2019 16.4 37.7 7.9 37.6 40.4 0.153
2020 20.9 38 6.3 34.4 47.8 0.12

So when batters are making contact, they're making harder contact and they're getting more loft on the ball. This rising trend hasn't hurt him much in the relatively weaker AL and NL Central divisions, but it could cause some problems pitching in the NL West.

What does all this mean? Basically managers should expect Bauer to regress considerably from last year's numbers. The strikeouts shouldn't be a problem — managers should expect him to be good for around 200 this year — and pitching for the Dodgers he should be in line for around 13 wins without too much trouble. The ERA though is going to take a hit, and managers should conservatively plan for Bauer to finish with an ERA likely around 3.70 with the potential to be as low as around 2.70.

Even with all that doom and gloom though, Bauer should still be one of the top 15pitchers drafted in most formats. Just maybe not the No. 4 pitcher going in the middle of the second round. The next three pitchers coming off the board in drafts right now are Yu Darvish (ADP 18), Lucas Giolito (ADP 19), and Walker Buehler (ADP 20). Managers should consider targeting any of those three over Bauer in virtually any format, and look to target Bauer (assuming he's still available then) closer to pick 25.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Merrill1 hour ago

Goes Deep After Inking Nine-Year Extension
Jrue Holiday1 hour ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 hour ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Luis Castillo2 hours ago

Finally Beats The Tigers On Wednesday
Al Horford2 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Seiya Suzuki2 hours ago

Carries Cubs Offense With Two Homers, Five RBI
Kristaps Porzingis2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet2 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dennis Santana2 hours ago

Picks Up First Save Of The Year
Evan Phillips2 hours ago

Tony Gonsolin, Evan Phillips Starting Rehab Assignments
Dean Wade2 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
George Springer2 hours ago

Hits First Homer In Win Over Nationals
Alex Bregman3 hours ago

Considering Using Torpedo Bat
Trae Young3 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman3 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Ozzie Albies3 hours ago

Moving To Leadoff Spot On Wednesday
Joel Embiid3 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin3 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Freddy Peralta3 hours ago

Dazzles In No-Decision Against Royals
Filip Chytil3 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Jackson Chourio3 hours ago

Picks Up Three Hits, First Homer In Extra-Innings Win
Declan Chisholm3 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Michael Harris II3 hours ago

Sitting Against Lefty On Wednesday
Keaton Wallace3 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard3 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Gunnar Henderson3 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Appearance On Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta4 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Paul Skenes4 hours ago

Wins His First Game Of The Season
Cole Ragans4 hours ago

Fans 10 In No-Decision On Wednesday
Eeli Tolvanen4 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Ketel Marte4 hours ago

Agrees To Six-Year Extension With Diamondbacks
Jaden Schwartz4 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
Iván Herrera4 hours ago

Ivan Herrera Slugs Three Homers, Drives In Six In Win Over Angels
Brayan Bello5 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start On Sunday
5 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
5 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Ketel Marte5 hours ago

Diamondbacks Working On Extension For Ketel Marte
5 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams6 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Frankie Montas6 hours ago

Playing Catch From 60 Feet
Trea Turner6 hours ago

Returns To Wednesday's Lineup
Cleveland Browns7 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots7 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
7 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody8 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers8 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers10 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans10 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett10 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns10 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals11 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown11 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Pittsburgh Steelers11 hours ago

All Options On The Table For Steelers At Quarterback
Jordan Mason11 hours ago

To Factor Into Short-Yardage, Goal-Line Situations
Bennedict Mathurin11 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Patriots Have Received Multiple Trade Inquiries For Joe Milton III
Myles Turner12 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford12 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday12 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown12 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham12 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis12 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard14 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel14 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko14 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson14 hours ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson14 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin14 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young19 hours ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama19 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim20 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Evan Engram20 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Caleb Williams21 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge21 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick24 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti1 day ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele1 day ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry1 day ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud1 day ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba1 day ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Troy Terry1 day ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jonathan Marchessault1 day ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere1 day ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Returns Against Predators
Olli Määttä1 day ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp1 day ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim1 day ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood1 day ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau1 day ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole1 day ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman2 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]