Trends to Buy or Sell for the Fantasy Football Playoffs

Analyst Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) breaks down important trends to know for the fantasy playoffs. Players mentioned: Russell Wilson, Alvin Kamara, and Travis Fulgham.

The second half of the fantasy football season has been underway for a few weeks now and it is pertinent that we note some trends that can determine where/how to perceive certain players. Teams tend to alternate usage of certain guys throughout the season as teams either hit a skid or stride. Rookies often see more work as the season goes on and vets see their usage tick down if their team is bad enough.

While some of these trends are more obvious than others, they are still important to note as to how your decision-making process goes into the fantasy playoff weeks.

If you have any questions/concerns, or just happen to like my takes, feel free to follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon and shoot something over any time!

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Russell Wilson: No Longer Cooking?

Wilson has hit a bit of a lull in fantasy. He's been incredible all season and is still the QB2 on the year but the past three weeks, specifically, have been mediocre. Wilson has not cracked 250 passing yards in this span and has thrown three touchdowns relative to two interceptions. However, the lone bright spot is that he is running a tad more which presents a meager silver lining. He set a season-high in rush attempts (8) in Week 10 versus Buffalo then topped that in Week 11 vs Arizona (10). This past week he was only managed six but that still averages out well relative to the first eight games of the season.

Not to make excuses, but you can explain the lack of fantasy production each of the past three weeks.

Week 10: The Rams had the Seahawks' number that game. Tough divisional matchup where Russ was sacked 6 times

Week 11: Kyler Murray injured his shoulder early-on and the game was much less competitive than expected. Seahawks never trailed and just ran the ball down Arizona's throat

Week 12: Non-competitive but Philadelphia's defense played extremely well outside of containing D.K. Metcalf

Also, not that running backs matter TOO much but Chris Carson is great to have back given how much better he is as a pass-catcher than Carlos Hyde. It allows the offense to have a short-area outlet for Russ to dump and gain yards crucial yards on any down. Carson was on pace for the most targets of his career before getting hurt and should still break it (assuming he stays healthy).

While there is talk of the Seahawks wanting to run more with Chris Carson's return along with Carlos Hyde give how well he has played this season, their matchups over the next two weeks are versus defenses much more susceptible to the pass than run. The Giants rank 15th in DVOA vs the rush and 25th vs the pass while the Jets are 8th vs the rush and 32nd vs the pass. While the games may not be ultra competitive, the Seahawks will have to drive the ball and score points eventually and as long as those come through the air, Wilson and company should be fine. The Giants will be starting Colt McCoy this week and the Jets will be trotting out the Jets roster, Seattle should be in position to score often and will capitalize on short-field opportunities.

The Week 15 matchup vs the Washington Football Team may bode the most difficult in the fantasy playoff stretch given WFT's pace and tendency to keep the ball on the ground but that is just one of those tough games on paper you have to eat and pray for the best. It is not like you have a better option on your wire than Russell Wilson.

SELL. Russ should be fine

Alvin Kamara: Target Void Sans Brees

This one is tough to navigate. Alvin Kamara has THREE total targets over the past two games. Kamara hasn't seen fewer than three targets in a single game since Week 11 of 2018! My take from watching these games is that the dump-off option in New Orleans is Taysom Hill taking off on a run. This team has been dominant all season thanks to their defense and especially in recent weeks versus the Falcons and Broncos. However, the Broncos started a practice squad WR/KR at QB and were essentially non-competitive from the jump and the Saints had no reason to panic or pass throughout the game. Same goes for the matchup against the Falcons where the Saints did not have much trouble moving the ball while the Falcons did in a game where Julio Jones was in-and-out.

Although the Saints should remain a competitive team throughout the rest of the season, teams are getting a better picture of Taysom Hill's offense after two full starts and will be doing what they can to force him to throw moving forward. Alvin Kamara has a few outs to gain more looks throughout the last quarter of the season. Either, the Saints will be playing from behind/close in games given their offense stagnating or opposing defenses sell-out to stop the run and Kamara has the short-field to operate as he did before.

There are brighter days ahead for AK41 and his rushing floor remains solid given how often he is utilized in the red-zone.

SELL (kinda). Targets will be there but not to the same degree as before

Travis Fulgham: Disappearing Act

Travis Fulgham's disappearance is not only infuriating for fantasy owners who thought they stole a WR2 off of the waiver wire, but also, Eagles fans who have to watch Alshon Jeffrey and John Hightower get playing time over Fulgham. The Eagles offense is lost.

While the Eagles might have been allowing Alshon Jeffrey, their highest-paid WR, to get his legs under him with extra snaps, it was asinine to do so at the expense of Fulgham. Yes, Fulgham was a bit rough over a two-game stretch versus the Giants and Browns when he only caught 2 passes on 12 targets but he's a young receiver and Carson Wentz is playing as arguably the worst QB in the league right now. Unless something happened in practice, this loss of play-time is inconceivable given his mid-season performance. They are just throwing shit at a wall and hoping something sticks.

While Fulgham should regain more of a role in the offense down the stretch as the Eagles (hopefully) realize that Jeffrey's time is up, they are still unlikely to feed him as they did in his premier stretch. Zach Ertz returns soon and Jalen Reagor is who they ~want~ to feature will be their most-targeted WR. I do expect Reagor to possibly breakout soon given his talent, their investment in him and steady targets but Fulgham's probably a lost cause until next season.

BUY. The Eagles are broken

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