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The Jacksonville Jaguars had a nightmare of a season last year, winning just one game. Fortunately for the Jags, this meant that they "earned" the top overall draft pick, which they spent on Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. Of more interest for fantasy, however, is their second first-round selection, running back Travis Etienne, also from Clemson.
The Jaguars have a new head coach in Urban Meyer, a new quarterback in Lawrence, and a new running back in Etienne. The team's offense has been completely overhauled, and fans are hoping that results in more wins. How much Etienne contributes to those wins remains to be seen though, as he will be sharing the backfield with last year's standout James Robinson.
While Etienne will absolutely have a role in the offense, will it be large enough to merit drafting him at his current ADP? How highly should you target him in your dynasty startups or rookie drafts? Read on for an analysis of his college production and 2021 outlook to answer these questions.
College Production
Some prospects don't produce much in college but are expected to make a leap in the pros. Etienne is not such a prospect. In his four years at Clemson, the two-time ACC Player of the Year accumulated 6,107 scrimmage yards and 78 touchdowns. These astronomical numbers reflect just how valuable Etienne was to a team that was already loaded with talent. No one can accuse Etienne of being a one-season wonder after he led the ACC in scrimmage touchdowns in two seasons and was a consensus All-American in a third.
Etienne's efficiency was just as remarkable as his raw production. The talented runner led his conference in yards per carry in each of his first three seasons with the Tigers. His career mark of 7.2 YPC is the 11th-best figure in the NCAA since 1956, just one spot behind USC legend Reggie Bush. Over 10 percent of Etienne's rushing attempts resulted in touchdowns.
While rushing may have provided the bulk of Etienne's production, his receiving abilities really came along in his last two seasons at Clemson. Etienne caught 85 passes for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns in 2019 and 2020 combined. His 12.2 percent target share in 2020 was at the 87th percentile among all running backs. It's no surprise that early reports out of Jacksonville suggest that Meyer wants to line Etienne up at slot receiver to make the most of his pass-catching chops.
After only 12 catches for 78 yards as a sophomore, Travis Etienne came to camp the next year asking for more practice reps in the passing game
In 2020, Etienne led all running backs in college football with 588 receiving yards pic.twitter.com/3NEx4cs8jN
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) February 17, 2021
Whether or not Etienne can continue his dominance in the NFL remains to be seen. What is not up for debate, though, is that his success in college is extremely promising for his future prospects.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Jacksonville's selection of Etienne surprised many onlookers considering the team really didn't have a hole at the running back position. After the team shockingly cut Leonard Fournette last preseason, undrafted rookie James Robinson balled out and finished as the league's fifth-leading rusher. Now in his second season in the NFL, Robinson certainly has more juice in the tank to continue piling up yardage for both the Jaguars and fantasy managers. The prospect of a backfield committee is always scary in the fantasy world.
Robinson's presence also makes the reports of Etienne working in the slot more concerning. Given that Meyer referred to Etienne as a "third-down back" behind Robinson and Carlos Hyde after the draft, it's possible that Etienne will be more valued as a receiver than a runner early on. While I am skeptical of Meyer's comment considering the draft capital spent on Etienne, it is absolutely still something to consider regarding his usage. To be clear, though, I simply can't see Hyde taking a meaningful number of touches away from Etienne; the real question is the rookie versus Robinson.
It's not as if Etienne will likely see a bunch of targets in the passing game even if he is used mainly as a receiving back. Jacksonville already has a promising slot wideout in Laviska Shenault Jr. who can handle many gadget duties as well. D.J. Chark Jr. and Marvin Jones Jr. will also demand their fair share of targets, and who knows how quickly Lawrence will adapt to the NFL level. Of course, it's possible that all of the news out of Jacksonville is a smokescreen and Etienne becomes an every-down back for the team. Given how things stack up at the moment, though, his selection by the Jags is quite curious. It's not as if Meyer's club is likely to be a Kansas City-level offensive powerhouse either, so there won't be enough yardage and touchdowns to go around for all the pieces to thrive.
Etienne's ADP in July has been as the RB21. I simply can't get behind this given his unclear role with the team. He does have significant upside, especially in PPR leagues, if he can quickly take over the starting running back spot from Robinson. That is a big if, however. Redraft managers should consider Etienne a boom-or-bust option at his current price.
Dynasty managers, on the other hand, should have little-to-no fear about scooping him up. Etienne's college production and clear versatility bode well for his outlook in subsequent seasons. Considering that Robinson went undrafted and Etienne went in the first round, Etienne is more likely to fit into the team's long-term plans. This makes him the clear-cut rookie RB2 behind Najee Harris for dynasty purposes.
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