Trading Up - Edwin Diaz

If you've read this column before, you know my standard guidance is to sell rather than buy closers. Today we take a look at the number one closer I'd actively target in a trade. I’m working on another article right now titled: “If You Only Buy One.” The idea behind it is that if you are only able to buy one player at a position, that’s the guy you want. For relief pitchers, Edwin Diaz is the target.

Diaz has provided everything a fantasy owner is looking for in a closer: a 2.37 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 14.68 K/9. If you take the approach with roster construction of trying to pair players together, Diaz could be paired with a lower-K starting pitcher, and you would have approximately 250 IP of 3.00 ERA, 250 Ks, and a WHIP around 1.

Diaz’s batted ball and Statcast data further show how good he’s been this year and last: His xwOBA for 2017 was .259 (31st out of all pitchers with at least 150 batters faced). This year Diaz’s xwOBA is .245 (12th out all pitchers with at least 100 batters faced). Those numbers clarify why his FIP (1.84), xFIP (2.19), and SIERA (1.82) are better than his actual ERA.

Diaz’s ascendance really began part way through last year when his velocity and swinging strike rates ticked up in late June and early July. His FIP dropped, and for about two months Diaz looked like an elite closer, but in the final five games last season, he lost about five MPH from his fastball, his ERA skyrocketed, and Diaz was left looking like a good reliever who had improved but hadn’t yet made the leap to top-5 closer territory.

Rest-of-Season Profile

Short of a full-scale collapse by Seattle, Diaz is unlikely to be traded. The Mariners have given every indication that they intend to make the playoffs and to buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline, and they only have to go .500 to earn a playoff spot. Moreover, Diaz has demonstrated the ability to maintain this level of performance for a year. As closers go, that makes him about as stable and assured as fantasy owners can find, especially if they aren’t paying for the brand name.

When creating ROS profiles, I usually take the major projection systems into account, but I don’t generally use them as the basis for my high or low projections. However, closers are difficult to project, and it’s impossible to account for injury, trade, and the mental breakdown that sometimes comes with a player whose job forces them into high-pressure situations almost every time they are used. Consequently, I think Steamer’s projection offers a rational baseline for Diaz. On the other hand, Diaz’s ceiling looks something like his advanced ERA measures, a doubling of his current saves total (there’s still more than 50% of the season to go), and a total of 125 strikeouts for the year. Basically, he’s the type of closer getting selected in the first 100 picks.

Those floor values are still excellent. Keep that in mind as you try to value Diaz.

Trade Value Around the Diamond

My general guidance is never to buy closers unless you must. A player like Diaz is a little bit of an exception to that. He represents a stable commodity without carrying the same price as those closers who are most secure in their roles. If you own him, I wouldn’t trade him unless you are getting the ceiling value.

C - J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey, Gary Sanchez
In anything less than a 14-teamer, the only catcher I want to trade for is Realmuto. Sanchez and Posey both have their value, but unless owners stumbled into a redundancy at catcher by picking up Evan Gattis during his April swoon, I don’t expect either one is available in exchange for Diaz. To be clear, I think Posey is a good return for Diaz and that Sanchez is still a 6th rounder in redrafts. I simply don’t think they’ll be dealt. That leaves Realmuto.

1B - Low End: Matt Olson, High End: Rhys Hoskins
Another day, another dinger for Olson. Make that the same for Hoskins. Olson is on pace to hit 43 HRs in his first 162 MLB games. Hoskins is on pace for 40. The real difference lies in Hoskins 15 points of additional batting average and his ability to take a walk, which leads to better counting stats. Both players struggled early in the season, and both players have rebounded nicely. If you’re looking for a more stable option at the high end, you can try to pry Jose Abreu away from an owner who is disappointed in his 11 HRs this season.

2B - Low End: DJ LeMahieu, High End: Ozzie Albies
DJ LeMahieu is back and hit a home run yesterday. Anyone who remembers his approach change from earlier this season and his consistent average, run, and RBI production could be enticed to buy into LeMahieu’s advantage with Coors Field. Ozzie Albies’ power has come back to Earth over the last month, but owners are probably fixated on his strong start. If you’re looking for a more available target, Scooter Gennett seems undervalued almost everywhere, but he has the batted ball profile and approach change to justify his numbers. The Statcast metrics don't love Gennett, but the peripherals support the sense that he is for real. Daniel Murphy is also back but playing poorly. Murphy is the high-upside play with the absolute-zero floor of a player who might not return to form. I’ve written about him on other occasions, and there’s no specific reason he should still be struggling except that each player and injury has its own timeline and progression.

SS - Low End: Eduardo Escobar, High End: Elvis Andrus
Fantasy owners get wound up about multi-position eligibility, and if you have that luxury, it’s worth the money. You’ll never sleep better than you do in the arms of a 2012 Ben Zobrist. However, if you have the option of getting a top-tier player in exchange for a strong utility player, you want the top-tier single-position guy. Escobar’s 12 HRs make him look better than he is. He will likely hit 22 HRs this year. However, Escobar doesn't provide stolen bases and seems like a marginal return for a guy who should be a top-4 closer at season’s end. Andrus is out on his rehab start. I’d have pegged Andrus as a middle-class Carlos Correa, but he might have been Correa’s equal if his elbow hadn’t been broken earlier this year. That speaks as much to Correa’s middling performance than Andrus’ work, but Correa is still a top-50 player, and Andrus would be a nice return for Diaz.

3B - Low End: Justin Turner, High End: Josh Donaldson
Trading away Justin Turner might be the absolute selling low. It might also be a moment of maximizing Turner’s value. Turner has not looked good since returning this year. His BA was inflated by a high BABIP last year. His power was down in 2017, and his injury history suggests that he’s due for at least one more trip to the DL. He’s better than a .256 BA, but if he meets his Steamer projection of .280/44/12/43/2, he’s a fourth-tier third baseman. Donaldson has all the same problems, but his history is better, his ceiling is higher, and his projections still look much stronger. He’s not the player drafted in the 3rd round, but he’s still a top-60 value. Travis Shaw is a guy with less name value, but probably just as much actual value.

OF - Low End: Nomar Mazara, High End: Tommy Pham
I believe in Nomar Mazara, especially in leagues that don’t use OBP, but the Texas offense is an enigma, and I think there is only a 40% chance that Mazara gets to 95 Rs or RBIs. I also think that Tommy Pham is held in less regard than Mazara, but he’s a legitimate 20-20 player who looks likely to score 100 Rs even if it only comes with a .270 average and 70 RBIs. Lorenzo Cain is a similar value player to target. Ronald Acuna or Juan Soto could be similar targets, but you’re gambling on the upside in both of those cases.

SP - Low End: Jake Arrieta, High End: Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton
I’m selling Arrieta, but not because I think his 3.33 ERA will regress to his 4.14 xFIP. Arrieta has outperformed his xFIP for the last five seasons, and his elite groundball percentage explains why. I think he’s due for regression towards a 3.7 ERA, but that 3.33 ERA is appealing and hides his poor strikeouts, middling wins, and sub-par WHIP. Use that ERA and the value of SPs to buy Diaz. Conversely, Carlos Carrasco had a rough stretch that looked worse than it was, and now he’s injured. Carrasco only has a deep bruise, so once he returns, there shouldn’t be any lingering structural damage. The simple reality here is that Arrieta is a top-40 pitcher while Carrasco is a top-20 pitcher. Diaz’s value is somewhere between them. Charlie Morton is less established than Carrasco, but he may be the better pitcher in 2018. He lacks the age and raw sex-appeal of a Blake Snell or Jose Berrios, but I think he is their equal. Buy him accordingly.

RP – Why would anyone do this?

A Final Note

Don’t buy closers. But if you’re going to buy closers, Edwin Diaz is the one for you. If you’re selling Diaz, make sure you’re getting top-75 value for him.

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