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Most veteran fantasy managers can conjure up some sort of memory or feelings about the MLB trade deadline. Many will recall a late-round, value closer who was the talk of the town as a trade piece from a bad team to a contender. Will that closer remain "the guy" if moved to a new team? Will he split closing duties with the existing closer, tanking both of their fantasy values? Who will ascend to the now-open closer role on the trading team and will they have value? All of these questions are key in assessing potential value -- both buys and sells -- as the MLB trade deadline looms. Similar questions arise for starting pitchers and position players potentially on the move.
While MLB trades can benefit both teams in the long run, the fantasy impacts of these trades are often much more nuanced. For the team trading the player away, that position is now open for another player to take the helm, perhaps an up-and-coming prospect. For the receiving team, someone's playing time and thereby fantasy output will undoubtedly be impacted. However, the exact nature and magnitude of the impact can vary significantly.
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) evaluates some "hot stove" players to identify those most likely to see a new home by the 2024 MLB trade deadline. Included teams are very likely to be sellers, while fringe teams that could be buyers or sellers (e.g., The Rays) are not discussed here. The fantasy impact of a potential trade for each player is discussed in detail. Fantasy managers looking at potential log jams in a new destination may consider selling before the inevitable trade. On the other hand, new rotation and closer openings may arise from trades, and identifying key free agent adds may provide a boost down the stretch for a relatively cheap add.
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Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox (95% Owned)
Of course, two of the top three players on this list by ownership are White Sox. It is an odd time to be a Southside fan with the names on this list, amongst others, providing much more "hype" than years past. On the other hand, with ongoing injury struggles and a league-worst 24-62 record, the ChiSox remain clear "sellers" at the deadline this year.
Lou-Bob is 26 years old. While that is still relatively young, if he were to stick around for a 5+ year rebuild, he would be over thirty by the time the White Sox had a realistic shot at the postseason, not even to say The World Series. With a significant injury track record, including a right hip flexor strain this year, it is prudent for the White Sox to move him for assets.
His numbers are interesting in his limited healthy time this year. His BB% is up significantly, sitting at 9.3% against a career mark of 5.6%. However, his K% is also significantly higher this year, sitting at 34.1% against a career mark of 25.9%. His average sits at a depressing .205, but his current .234 BABIP is well below his consistent career mark of .327. As it stands, some of this is "noise" from the limited sample size, and Robert is likely to trend back towards his career numbers throughout the rest of the year.
Luis Robert Jr goes 470 feet. Get him on a contender. pic.twitter.com/1cpi4Xgkgr
— The Skippers View Podcast (@skippsviewpod) June 29, 2024
The Phillies are garnering the most buzz as a potential destination for Lou-Bob. This is a great fit, including for fantasy managers. Whether or not they send a young Johan Rojas or Cristian Pache as part of the return package, Robert should slot right into a lethal Phillies lineup. He may see a few more days off with names like Brandon Marsh to spell him, but Robert's bat is too good to put in a platoon. Likely slotting in somewhere between the second and fifth slots in the batting order, Robert would gain the opportunity to drive in the likes of Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber and then be followed by the big bats of Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos, not to mention wherever Alec Bohm would slot in around him.
The Braves are another name in contention and would also similarly boost Robert's value, surrounding him with significantly better bats both before and after where he would likely bat in their order. The Royals also seem like a good fit in terms of OF needs, but an intra-division trade and concerns about what they can offer in return may limit this possibility. Overall, Robert will benefit from a trade to any team, as his ability will keep him regularly in the lineup and any supporting cast is an improvement over the current White Sox one.
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics (90% Owned)
So long as the Athletics continue to flounder without a long-term home (and poor ownership decisions), they will be evergreen candidates to move some of their best players at the trade deadline. Without a clear star in their batting order or starting rotation, all eyes are on Mason Miller. Despite being under team control with a relatively affordable contract until 2030, it is hard to imagine Miller is going to sit tight with that contract on this team while he is so dominant.
His numbers have been superhuman and continue to be so. He is regularly throwing 100+ mph fastballs, sometimes completing entire innings with triple-digit pitchers. He holds an otherworldly 47.1% K%, by far the highest number in 2024 (Fernando Cruz, in second place, holds a 41.1% K%). His 1.96 ERA, 1.80 FIP, and 1.75 xFIP suggest that his current, incredible performance is likely here to stay. It has been some time since a reliever like this has come around, and teams want him long-term.
Mason Miller, you are nasty 🤢
He strikes out the side to earn his 10th save of the year! pic.twitter.com/bAQwJneCCB
— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2024
In terms of contenders looking for late-inning help, the Orioles would be an interesting landing spot. They have an overcrowded farm system chomping at the bit. While they are unlikely to move Jackson Holliday, one has to wonder if a Heston Kjerstad package might be enough to bring over Miller. Craig Kimbrel has been good, definitely above-average, but the addition of Miller would put this bullpen over the top for a World Series run. Even in a split role with Kimbrel, Miller's value would likely be the same or better compared to his current home in Oakland which has afforded him 16 SVOP in 2024 so far. As far as closers go, one or two blowups from Kimbrel would likely lead to a complete changing of the guard.
Another potential landing spot is the Phillies, who have had multiple issues with their bullpen this year between Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, and others. While at first this seems enticing, a strong contender with an "opening" for a dominant closer, the worry on the other side is real. Miller seems more likely to slot in as a fireman, working in high-leverage but not exclusively ninth-inning opportunities. His overall value would likely increase from Oakland, but his save opportunities could potentially be fewer.
Managers should keep their ears to the ground for any true rumblings that a Miller move may happen. If moving to the Orioles, he will need to supplant Kimbrel but if so would likely have a "true" closer role. If moving to Philadelphia, he faces a less defined "closer" role overall, and his value would depend much more on the presence or absence of Saves as a scoring category. In any case, Miller is a reliever to follow over the next decade, wherever he lands.
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (90% Owned)
The third and final "star" on this list is a newcomer. After spending the past few years as a fringe middle reliever, Crochet has burst onto the scene this year as a starting pitcher. Despite a mediocre 6-6 record, Crochet has turned in 11 QS this year in his 18 starting pitcher outings. That is good for a top-10 ranking across the MLB, bumping elbows with names like Tarik Skubal and Tyler Glasnow in the 2024 QS rankings.
Beyond the simple opportunity to be stretched out as a starter, Crochet has added a new pitch in 2024, a cut fastball. Historically a three-pitch pitcher (four-seam fastball, changeup, slider), Crochet is throwing this new cutter a healthy 26.7% of the time in 2024. This pitch has been lethal, leading all of his pitches in both Whiff% and PutAway%. Those same statistics have increased for all of his pitches, showcasing how the addition of his cutter has improved all the pitches in his repertoire.
Garrett Crochet past 11 starts:
66.2 IP
94 Ks
1.48 ERA
0.84 WHIPTrade deadline is 30 days away.
— Underdog MLB (@Underdog__MLB) June 30, 2024
If this article was written in descending order of trade likelihood, Crochet would be at the top. He is pitching at an ace level on a team that does not need an ace and would be better served auditioning young arms as they move into (another) rebuild period. The destination is hard to predict, with some reports mentioning that over half of MLB clubs have kicked the tires on Crochet, at least making a phone call to the ChiSox front office.
The Dodgers' pitching rotation has been marred by injuries in 2024. They seem like as likely a landing spot as any, particularly with some gas left in the tank in terms of prospects to move in exchange for Crochet. This is a pure upside move for Crochet. He would be pitching in front of one of the best lineups in baseball with a solid bullpen to follow him. There are rumors he and Kopech could come over together as part of a larger deal. Current Crochet owners should be rooting for this first and foremost, as he and Glasnow would be a lethal one-two punch amongst all the other strong SP names on their roster (and IL).
The Red Sox, Royals, Orioles, and even Yankees are other names that could benefit from the addition of an ace (or even SP2, should he regress a bit). But as above, almost any team will benefit in the short-term from acquiring Crochet. He will be a key starter for whichever club acquires him, but the increase in his Win output will depend on the exact team that trades for him.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels (60% Owned)
Mr. Anderson (shout-out to fans of The Matrix) currently holds a 3.03 ERA and carries the additional coveted attribute of being a left-handed starting pitcher, a common need at the MLB trade deadline. Sitting at 36-47 with little to get excited about, the Angels are poised to do some selling as the trade deadline approaches. At 34 years old, the Halos would be smart to get what value they can out of their aging SP1.
The first concern is Anderson's performance itself, regardless of potential destination. A 4.81 FIP and 5.29 xFIP betray his 3.03 ERA, which seems like it will inevitably balloon to above 3.50, if not above 4.00, by season's end. The other concern is an abysmal 15.5% K% in 2024, with fewer than ten starters having a worse mark in 2024. Does it really matter where he is traded?
Nonetheless, considering a change of location can be relevant in deeper leagues and/or for shopping Anderson while he still has some value. In broad strokes, a move to a contender like the Dodgers or Orioles would significantly boost Anderson's value on win potential alone. Even a move to a "lesser" contender such as the Mariners or Braves would be a significant boost from the mediocre Angels lineup that currently backs Anderson.
Although this article is focused on potential trade destinations, more important for Anderson is to try to score any value that managers can before his ERA balloons. His strikeout upside is minimal. Perhaps him as a likely trade candidate to a contender will increase his trade value, but it will not fix the limited fantasy value he has anywhere he goes.
Cal Quantrill, Colorado Rockies (25% Owned)
Ah, the Rockies. Yet another team like the White Sox and Athletics who just cannot seem to claw out of a perpetual "rebuild." Jon Gray is one of the more memorable names to escape the unfriendly (at least to pitchers) confines of Coors Field and watch his ratios improve. Will Quantrill soon follow despite just this year coming over from Cleveland?
At first blush, Quantrill has a profile similar to Anderson above him. His current ERA sits at 3.78 with an FIP of of 4.54 and xFIP of 4.30. The difference for Quantrill is that a trade away from Coors Field as his home park would almost guarantee an improvement in ratios, or at a minimum help with stagnating around his current, respectable ERA. Now there are other hitter-friendly destinations, but none of them are a mile-high like Coors Field, and none of the major offenders seem like the most likely place for Quantrill to land. A trade would improve Quantrill's overall outlook. He has flashed much more potential than Anderson, and at 29 years of age likely has more left in the tank.
#Rockies Cal Quantrill posted 15+ whiffs for the 5th time in his career, w/ the 3rd-most (18). It's his 2nd time w/ 15+ in 2024, so he might warrant more attention.
✅Using the splitter at a career-high rate
🔥Deadly against RHH (.158 wOBA) & LHH (.157 wOBA)
⬇️Horizontal release pic.twitter.com/VOI7auXEB2— Corbin (@corbin_young21) May 27, 2024
As with Anderson, strong contenders like the Dodgers and Orioles would undoubtedly prefer to nab Crochet over either of these two guys. If those teams miss out on the top arm or two, Quantrill moving into either one of those rotations would be a strong improvement in terms of win opportunities. Couple that with thicker, more humid air, and Quantrill's value may see a true boost with a trade. His upside through trade is much higher than Anderson's. Of the two, target Quantrill and sell Anderson.
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox (20% Owned)
The last (and least) White Sox player on this list is Kopech. While nearly every aging position player on Chicago's roster might be in for new scenery, Kopech has arguably been more valuable than names like Andrew Benintendi and Tommy Pham, since at least Kopech has contributed to a unique scoring category in Saves.
Kopech holds a nice 32.1% K% in 2024, a solid number for a closer. However, a 12.8% BB% leaves something to be desired for a ninth-inning arm that needs to limit damage. At least partially due to those walks, Kopech holds an ugly 4.33 ERA and an even more frightening 5.03 FIP. The risk is very much real with Kopech, and four blown saves in eleven save opportunities certainly underscore that.
Unfortunately, a trade is likely to decrease his already-fringe fantasy value. The numbers above do not profile a sought-after, deadline arm to become a full-time closer. Rather, Kopech is getting a longer leash in the closer role from a team that is well out of competition this year. The White Sox are trying to prop up his trade value for a team in need of a late-inning arm.
While Kopech could very well move to a contender, his ratio and walk issues will follow him. He is unlikely to see an increase in his save chances on a new team and seems most likely to slot in as a seventh or eighth-inning arm. Perhaps those in leagues with holds as a category may see value, but managers without that category would do well to shop Kopech for whatever value they can get while he is still a "full-time closer."
Kevin Pillar, Los Angeles Angels (15% Owned)
For those in deeper leagues, Pillar is included as a potential move at the deadline who could benefit in terms of counting stats by seeing regular time with a better supporting cast. At 35 years old with a reputation for adding value through a mix of speed and power, questions will arise as to what Pillar has left in the tank. And, fairly, as things stand in Anaheim, younger names are getting a crack at the MLB so the Angels can determine what their farm system has in store.
Pillar has already posted 7 SB and 7 HR this year, a rare combination that can be particularly valuable in categories-based scoring with SB as a category. Couple that with a .290 batting average, and Pillar seems to have little risk with true upside, even at 35 years of age. After struggling with a relative increase in strikeouts over the last few years, Pillar is sporting a strong 17.3% K% in 2024. He at least deserves a full-time audition. Replicating these numbers across a larger sample size would boost Pillar as high as a top-100 ranking in 2024.
Second homer of the night for Kevin Pillar! pic.twitter.com/8hYdhSeEyC
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) May 8, 2024
Where can he land that can give him these opportunities? The Royals need OF help but lack the prospects that would entice a rebuilding team like the Angels. Perhaps the Guardians could make a low-level trade to improve their hitting via Pillar, as could the Twins. Should they miss a higher profile name, the Phillies could be a great real-life landing spot, but that carries a higher chance of a platoon and lower fantasy value. The key to Pillar's fantasy value is a full-time gig. Any platoon will make him unworthy of a roster spot, so following his landing spot and related playing time are key to assessing his value.
If Pillar lands somewhere with wide-open playing time, he has enough left in the tank to be a bargain buy for the second half of the 2024 fantasy season. It is difficult to guess what the Angels might do. They are clearly sellers, but names like Taylor Ward and Jo Adell might have more appeal to potential suitors. However, at Pillar's age, with waning playing time, he is as good a candidate as any to be moved. Keep notifications on and consider a quick add if he lands somewhere with a clear path to playing time.
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