X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Trade Away Your Dynasty Rookie Picks Before it's Too Late!

April is when dynasty fantasy football players get spring fever. Last season's exploits are a distant memory. The combine has come and gone. Now we're just counting down the days until our rookie drafts. Who doesn't love a good rookie draft?

Me, that's who! Call me Scrooge if you must, but let me explain why first.

In this piece, I will outline the pros and cons of using rookie picks, but ultimately you will be convinced that holding onto those picks might not be as valuable as you think.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Why We Want Rookie Picks

Let's consider the reasons why rookie picks are so desirable to dynasty owners.

New Product Envy

We've all got a friend or relative who always has the most recent iPhone, or newest game console, or somehow knows the lyrics to that fire new mixtape before anyone else knew it was released. We're all annoyed by that guy - in part because we're a little bit envious. Let's face it, who wouldn't love to be the first to own something new and desirable?

Something similar happens with dynasty rookie picks. For months heading up to the draft we've been inundated with praise for the incoming rookies. We'd like to be the first (and only!) one on our block to own Corey Davis or Leonard Fournette.

Fear of Missing Out

This is the flip side of the coin. Sometimes we want rookie picks because we desire the players themselves. Sometimes we want rookie picks because we're afraid of what will happen to our dynasty team without them. Will we end up with a roster full of decrepit past-their-prime has-beens? Will our best players get superseded by rookies? Will we suddenly fall behind Ted from Accounting because he bolstered his wide receivers through the rookie draft?

Jonesing for a Fix

Sometimes we just miss the action. It's been a long time since we've been able to really tinker with our dynasty rosters, let alone materially affect our future prospects. The rookie draft is an oasis in the long desert between the end of the last season and the start of the next. Like weary travelers, we look forward to the oasis, and can't wait to get there.

Legitimate Roster Needs

Sometimes (all the time if you're in a deep, competitive league) we just have holes to plug. Players bust, get injured, retire, or get suspended. Our roster has a hole, and we need to fill it.

 

Why We Should Fade Rookie Picks

I submit that only one of the four reasons for desiring rookie picks listed above is legitimate, and even in the case of legitimate roster needs, the rookie draft isn't the only, or maybe even the best, answer to addressing the need. Just like you might need a new car, but a new car may not be the right answer. Maybe a used car is a better option. In other words, we should question our motives for acquiring or desiring rookie picks. What need are we trying to fill? And is it the right need?

If we can recognize that a large part of our desire for having rookie picks is based on psychological reasons that may or may not have a lot of merit, we'll be one step closer to avoiding the biggest reason for fading rookie picks - we're just not that good at using them.

Using data from My Fantasy League, here are all the players with a first-round rookie ADP over the past four Augusts.

PLAYER PLAYER PLAYER PLAYER 
Abdullah, Ameer Coleman, Tevin Fuller, Will Perriman, Breshad
Agholor, Nelson Cooks, Brandin Gordon, Melvin Prosise, C.J.
Austin, Tavon Cooper, Amari Gurley, Todd Sankey, Bishop
Ball, Montee Dixon, Kenneth Henry, Derrick Shepard, Sterling
Bell, Le'Veon Doctson, Josh Hopkins, DeAndre Thomas, Michael
Benjamin, Kelvin Ebron, Eric Hyde, Carlos Treadwell, Laquon
Bernard, Giovani Eifert, Tyler Lacy, Eddie Watkins, Sammy
Booker, Devontae Elliott, Ezekiel Matthews, Jordan West, Terrance
Boyd, Tyler Evans, Mike Parker, DeVante White, Kevin
Coleman, Corey Freeman, Devonta Patterson, Cordarrelle Yeldon, T.J.

We can quibble, but I bet you'll have a hard time coming up with even 10 clear-cut, slam-dunk winning picks. Let's hit briefly on what I think are the best names:

  • Le'Veon Bell - Complete stud. Has also missed 17 games in four years and has been suspended twice.
  • Brandin Cooks - Two top-14 positional finishes, but missed six games as a rookie and now goes to a lower-volume passing offense.
  • Amari Cooper - Improved in second year, finishing as WR16. Outside the top 20 as a rookie.
  • Mike Evans - Three top-24 finishes in three years.
  • Devonta Freeman - Exploded as a second-year back, but did nothing a a rookie.
  • Melvin Gordon - Ditto.
  • DeAndre Hopkins - Two great seasons sandwiched by two duds (nine points per game as a rookie, just 12 with Brock Osweiler in 2016).
  • Michael Thomas - Looks great so far.
  • Sammy Watkins - Missed 12 games the past two seasons.

These guys haven't been as good for dynasty rosters as we might think, especially as rookies. But even if you count them all as clear hits, the first round rookie pick batting average is still pretty bad. If you're really generous and count guys like Kelvin Benjamin, Giovani Bernard, and Eddie Lacy as clear hits, you'll still have a hard time getting to a 50 percent success rate on a first round rookie pick. And we haven't even talked about the damage guys like Nelson Agholor, Montee Ball, or Bishop Sankey caused their owners.

Here's the kicker. Look at the table again and note the players in italics. Those are players whose rookie ADP was in the second half of the first round. So if you've had a recent pick in the back half of round one, you might have hit on Michael Thomas or Devonta Freeman (if you didn't get rid of him after a nondescript rookie season). Jordan Matthews, Tyler Eifert, and Kelvin Benjamin have had periods of valuable performance. Otherwise, you haven't gotten much to show for your pick. I won't present the data here, but the hit rate of rookie picks gets even worse in the second and third rounds of rookie drafts.

 

Conclusion

At best, the hit rate on rookie picks is 50 percent, and the hits don't always come in the player's rookie season. In short, rookie picks are lottery tickets. Okay, maybe your odds of hitting are better than that. We'll call them raffle tickets then.

So what should you do with your rookie picks? Any time you can add a second or third round pick as an incentive to get a trade done, I think that's a good idea. For first round picks, I'm always looking for an opportunity, especially close to rookie draft time, when rookie frenzy is at its strongest, to trade them away for established players. Using widely available dynasty trade tools, you can see that, as of early April, the 1.01 rookie pick is roughly equivalent in value to Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, or Jordy Nelson. Current rookie favorites Leonard Fournette and Corey Davis might have better ceilings than those players. But they certainly have lower floors. Alternatively, you can probably flip a high rookie pick for two players, or a player and a lower pick, to give you two shots at bolstering your roster. In a game as volatile as fantasy football, I prefer known veteran commodities to unknown commodities in almost all circumstances.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tony Pollard1 hour ago

Likely Good To Go Against Houston
Darnell Mooney1 hour ago

A "Long-Shot" To Suit Up On Sunday
Zay Flowers2 hours ago

Likely Sustains Knee Sprain In Week 18
Ja'Marr Chase3 hours ago

Leads The Way In Week 18
Tee Higgins3 hours ago

Leaves With Ankle Injury
Jerry Jeudy4 hours ago

Sets Browns Record In Week 18 Loss
Bogdan Bogdanovic5 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jalen Johnson5 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Trae Young5 hours ago

To Play On Saturday
Kawhi Leonard5 hours ago

To Make Season Debut On Saturday
Gabe Vincent5 hours ago

Tagged As Doubtful For Sunday
Alex Caruso5 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Sunday
Jeremy Sochan6 hours ago

Will Suit Up Saturday
Jalen Brunson6 hours ago

Will Play Saturday
Anthony Davis6 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Sunday
LeBron James7 hours ago

Probable For Sunday
Khris Middleton7 hours ago

Will Face The Blazers
Giannis Antetokounmpo7 hours ago

Cleared For Action On Saturday
Bradley Beal7 hours ago

Will Play Saturday
Cade Cunningham7 hours ago

Available For Saturday
Chase Brown7 hours ago

Inactive For Week 18
Dejounte Murray7 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Zay Flowers8 hours ago

Won't Return In Week 18
Clayton Kershaw8 hours ago

Intends To Pitch In 2025, Expected To Return To Los Angeles
Noah Clowney8 hours ago

Upgraded To Available On Saturday
Joel Embiid8 hours ago

Active For Saturday Night Matchup Against Nets
Brandon Miller9 hours ago

Questionable Heading Into Sunday Against Cavaliers
LaMelo Ball9 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday's Game Against Cleveland
Trendon Watford9 hours ago

Resumes On-Court Workouts, Will Be Re-Evaluated In One Week
Kelly Oubre Jr.9 hours ago

Officially Ruled Out For Saturday's Game Against Nets
Dallas Goedert10 hours ago

Eagles Activate Dallas Goedert From Injured Reserve
Austin Ekeler10 hours ago

Activated From Injured Reserve Ahead Of Week 18
Chris Olave10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 18
Green Bay Packers10 hours ago

Jaire Alexander Placed On Injured Reserve
Jameis Winston11 hours ago

Inactive For Week 18, Serving As Emergency Quarterback
Nelson Agholor11 hours ago

Inactive For Week 18
Tee Higgins11 hours ago

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins Hope To Play Together For "Years To Come"
Amari Cooper12 hours ago

Downgraded To Out For Week 18
Thatcher Demko13 hours ago

Joining Team For Five-Game Road Trip
Pyotr Kochetkov13 hours ago

Starts Against Wild On Saturday
Joseph Woll13 hours ago

In Maple Leafs Net On Saturday
Scott Wedgewood14 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jack Drury14 hours ago

Back For Hurricanes Saturday
Auston Matthews14 hours ago

Returns To Action On Saturday
Jordan Binnington17 hours ago

Shuts Out Senators
Brandon Saad17 hours ago

Ends Goal Drought With A Hat Trick
Mike Matheson17 hours ago

Records Two Assists Friday
Nick Foligno17 hours ago

Pots Two Goals In Friday's Win
Juuse Saros17 hours ago

Logs Fourth Shutout Of The Season
Leon Draisaitl17 hours ago

Nets Game-Winner On Friday
Chase Brown1 day ago

Needs To Improve To Have A Shot At Playing On Saturday
Tee Higgins1 day ago

Expected To Play Against Steelers
Charlie Morton1 day ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Baltimore
Chris Olave1 day ago

Saints List Chris Olave As Questionable For Week 18
Jaylen Waddle1 day ago

Dolphins Optimistic About Jaylen Waddle Despite Questionable Tag
Tyreek Hill1 day ago

Questionable To Face The Jets
Jared Spurgeon1 day ago

To Miss 2-3 Weeks
Oskar Sundqvist1 day ago

Unavailable Friday
Justin Faulk1 day ago

Iffy For Friday's Action
Colton Dach1 day ago

Set For NHL Debut On Friday
Connor Murphy1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
David Savard1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Jack Eichel2 days ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Thursday
Alex DeBrincat2 days ago

Tallies Three Points On Thursday
Jonathan Quick2 days ago

Leads The Way On Thursday
Pete Alonso2 days ago

Angels "Looking At" Pete Alonso
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Hoping To Find Success Again At Majors In 2025
Chris Kirk3 days ago

Starts 2025 Defending The Sentry Title
Max Homa3 days ago

Hopes To Rebound After Disappointing 2024 Season
Nick Dunlap3 days ago

Looks To Build On Impressive Rookie Season
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Heads To The Sentry After Excellent 2024 Season
PGA3 days ago

Sungjae Im Hoping To Start 2025 Season Strongly At The Sentry
Russell Henley3 days ago

Closes Out 2024 Season Strong
Jason Day3 days ago

Looks Ahead To 2025 Season At The Sentry
Akshay Bhatia3 days ago

To Repeat Last Year’s Sentry Performance?
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Returns To The Sentry
Jesús Luzardo3 days ago

Jesus Luzardo Feeling 100 Percent
Maverick McNealy4 days ago

Making First Career Start At Kapalua
Corey Conners4 days ago

Making Third Consecutive Start At Kapalua
Viktor Hovland4 days ago

A Gametime Decision For Year's First Event
Tony Finau4 days ago

Making Sixth Start At Kapalua After Rumor-Filled Offseason
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looks To Get Off To Fast Start In 2025 At Kapalua
Patrick Cantlay5 days ago

Looks For Hot Start In 2025
Sam Burns5 days ago

In Top Form Ahead of Kapalua
Cameron Young5 days ago

Needs To Avoid Bad Rounds In Hawaii
Sahith Theegala5 days ago

Looking For Big 2025 Start In Hawaii
Hideki Matsuyama5 days ago

Always A Threat In Hawaii
Billy Horschel5 days ago

Seeks To Build Off Great 2024 Campaign
Jack Flaherty5 days ago

Orioles Interested In Reunion With Jack Flaherty
Alex Bregman6 days ago

Tigers "All-In" On Alex Bregman
Trevor Williams6 days ago

Returning To Washington On Two-Year Deal

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Michael Penix Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for Sam Darnold, Bryce Young, Michael Penix Jr., Joshua Dobbs, Drew Lock, Drake Maye

The Week 18 slate is here, meaning several teams who are eliminated from postseason action or have already locked up a playoff spot are set to rest some key starters. We're here to help you sort through it all with our Week 18 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024. If you're still chasing a […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football Playoffs: Overall Updates Include Isaac Guerendo, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens

If your league championship is in Week 18, you surely already know it's a difficult week to navigate. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Isaac Guerendo, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Jerry Jeudy, and George Pickens stand for the must-win Week 18 […]


Jalen McMillan - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jalen McMillan, Adam Thielen, Rico Dowdle, Ray Davis, J.K. Dobbins, Zay Flowers

The closing week of the 2024 NFL regular season has arrived, and we're here to help your lineup or DFS calls with our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Comparing two flex options at different positions can be a tough task, so let's see where key FLEX options like Jalen […]


Ray Davis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 18 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Rico Dowdle, Zach Charbonnet, Ray Davis, Blake Corum, Isaac Guerendo, more

Week 18 is here, and many backup running backs will be in featured roles this weekend as several teams are resting starters. That said, let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 18 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players such as Rico Dowdle, Zach Charbonnet, […]


Jameson Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 18 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Tyreek Hill, Jalen McMillan, Adam Thielen, Jameson Williams, Jauan Jennings

Week 18 is here, and several teams will either not play starters or pull them early in the game. That said start-or-sit decisions are tough when comparing two flex-level wide receiver options, so we're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's see where key […]


Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans - Tampa Bay Bucs, Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 18 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 18! This Week 18 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em will help you make the right lineup decisions in the final week of the regular season.  Whether you play in a Week 18 fantasy football championship or are looking for some DFS […]


Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Inactives Week 18 (Updated): Which Teams Are Resting Starters? Who's Sitting or Playing in Week 18

If your fantasy football league extends to Week 18, you either forgot to change that setting, or you love living on the edge. The final week of the NFL regular season is always tricky to navigate, as several teams either do not play their key starters or pull them early. Many teams have already clinched […]


Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, WR, Waiver Wire, NFL DFS, Rookies

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 18 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football And DFS Include Blake Corum, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ricky Pearsall

For the final week of the 2024 season, those who are still participating in Week fantasy football Super Bowls must do two things. First, vote in a new league commissioner for next season. Secondly, consult our rundown of our best streamers and lineup pluggers to win a league championship. Using RotoBaller’s Week 18 Lineup Rankings […]


Joe Burrow - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Steelers vs. Bengals Showdown (Week 18)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is the final week of the regular season, and we have a couple more showdowns left, including a big game for the AFC North. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) host the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8). The Bengals are still alive for a playoff spot but need some help, along with a win. The […]


Derrick Henry - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Browns vs. Ravens Showdown (Week 18)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an AFC North Showdown on the docket as Bailey Zappe and the Cleveland Browns (3-13) head to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (11-5). While Cleveland doesn't have anything to play for, they can still play spoiler for their division rival as Lamar and the Ravens are […]


Chig Okonkwo - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Sam LaPorta, Jonnu Smith, Zach Ertz, Chig Okonkwo, Mike Gesicki, Tucker Kraft

Tight ends got out to a slow start in 2024, but several players at the position have become productive fantasy and DFS assets. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football tight end rankings for 2024 to help you make tough start-or-sit decisions. If your league extends to Week 18, it's time […]


Zach Charbonnet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Running Back Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Fantasy Football Playoffs - Week 18

While most fantasy football leagues crowned a champion last week, there are still a handful of leagues deciding their title this week. That means we’ve got one last weekend of work left before we can finally put up our feet and relax. Week 18 can be tricky for fantasy managers as many teams have already […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 Quarterback Rankings for Fantasy Football - QB Updates Include Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, Justin Herbert, more

At last, Week 18 has arrived. Whether your league extends to Week 18 or you are looking for an extra resource for DFS lineups, we're here to help with our updated Week 18 fantasy football quarterback rankings for 2024. Let's see where quarterbacks such as Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, Justin […]