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The NFL can be a strange game. Players can perform one year and then fall victim to injury or situation and fall short of expectations the next year. In this article, we’ll take a look at four players who could rebound in 2024. But what exactly constitutes a rebound candidate?
This article could focus on your obvious breakout candidates due to a much better offensive environment. Guys like Garrett Wilson and Drake London come to mind. But Wilson is too obvious with the upgrade from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers, and London has never really “done it” before. Instead of highlighting guys like this, we’ll dig a little deeper and find guys who have been on top before and could get back there again.
What went wrong last season, and why should we expect a different outcome this season? Let’s dive in and take a look. Here are four of my top rebound candidates in 2024.
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Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
After a coming-out party in his first year in Jacksonville (2022), Kirk came back down to earth in 2023. He went from averaging 11.8 half-PPR points per game in 2022 to just 10.8 points last season. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s the difference between a solid WR2 and a middling WR3 in fantasy football.
So what happened? Calvin Ridley happened. With Ridley on the field, Kirk saw his high-value opportunities diminish. He went from 24 deep targets to just 13 and from 22 red zone targets to just six. That’s right, Kirk only saw six red zone targets in 2023 to Ridley’s 25 (which was good for third among wide receivers). Kirk’s target share (20.8%), target rate (22.9%), and air yards share (26.5%) all dropped by around 2-3% as well.
But even with Ridley playing alongside him last season, Kirk still managed to produce 2.12 yards per route run (19th among wide receivers) while playing 67.4% of his snaps from the slot. That’s impressive. While he’ll still play a good number of his snaps from the slot this season, it likely won’t be 67.4% of them, considering he played 52% of his snaps from the slot in 2022 as the alpha in the room.
Christian Kirk is fast and the Jaguars have the lead 💯#JAXvsNO on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/89nUeCngbn pic.twitter.com/SQfWTMpTUg— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2023
Betting on Kirk is a bet on talent, chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. not being the next Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson right out of the gates. It feels like a good one to make, with Lawrence and the Jaguars likely to take a step forward in 2024.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
It’s not that Goedert was “bad” last season, but he certainly didn’t live up to expectations. Those expectations came from very solid 2021 and 2022 seasons in which he averaged 10.9 and 11.8 PPR fantasy points per game, respectively. In 2023, that number dipped to just 9.7 fantasy points per game. So what was different about 2023 that led to the drop in production? Many would point to a very green offensive coordinator (OC), Brian Johnson.
The case for Dallas Goedert
New Eagles OC Kellen Moore made Dalton Schultz a top-5 TE in 2021 despite just a 76.6% route participation rate
Former Eagles OC Brian Johnson was bad for DG
Yards per route run
2023 = 1.38
2022 = 2.24Average depth of target
2023 = 5.4
2022 = 6.2— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 12, 2024
Goedert’s abilities just weren’t being maximized last season. His average depth of target (aDoT) fell from 8.8 yards in 2021 to just 5.4 yards in 2023. His fantasy value dipped despite running a career-high 30.6 routes per game on a career-high 92.8% route participation. His 7.13 yards per target and 10.03 yards per catch were both career lows.
Of course, he’s still very much third on the target totem poll behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but if anyone can maximize a tight end’s value, it’s new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Remember in 2021 when he turned Dalton Schultz into a top-5 tight end despite just a 76.6% route participation? It appears Goedert has faith in Moore and this new-look Eagles offense to get the ball in his hands this season.
Dallas Goedert said Kellen Moore offense has tight ends moving around a lot to try to get tells from the defense and there are quicker throws to the tight ends pic.twitter.com/EunerjLjA4
— Ed Kracz (@kracze) June 5, 2024
If anything were to happen to Brown or Smith, Goedert would immediately become the second option in the passing game for what figures to be a high-volume passing attack. Don’t forget he was first among all tight ends in yards per route run (2.92) and fifth in yards after the catch (343). There’s a ton of talent here that should once again be maximized by a new OC.
Eagles motion to empty, get the man look, and run Goedert off a pick for an easy TD to start the game. pic.twitter.com/Ty1xSBHSgg
— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) January 22, 2023
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
Johnson remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated wide receivers in the NFL. Despite the fantasy production not being there the last two seasons, Johnson’s route-running ability remains elite. Check out his 2023 Reception Perception profile courtesy of Matt Harmon:
Not even one yellow arrow in his profile. Johnson wins at all levels and can very clearly run the entire route tree. And now he finds himself in Carolina working with new head coach Dave Canales and second-year quarterback Bryce Young. Canales got the job in Carolina after helping both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield turn their respective careers around. The hope is that he can do the same for Young, who had an abysmal rookie season. And if Young takes a step forward, Johnson could be in for a big year in 2024. The fit in Carolina could be perfect.
Diontae Johnson OWNS the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards).
But he was hung out to dry there by his QBs last year.
At this depth, he led all WRs in Yards per CATCHABLE Target...
...but received the worst catchable target rate of any WR.
(via @FantasyPtsData) pic.twitter.com/gcR0nLzckI
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 11, 2024
A 33-year-old Adam Thielen was able to put up his first 1,000-yard season since 2018 last year. His 103 receptions were the second-most he’s ever produced in a single season. No disrespect to Thielen, but at this point in their respective careers, Johnson clears by a mile. Not only will he take over as the WR1, but he’ll be in a much more diverse offense than Thielen was a year ago. With a current FantasyPros average draft position of WR41, there’s only upside and very little downside when drafting Johnson in 2024. Remember, he was a top-10 wide receiver just three years ago.
As Harmon points out, Johnson was actually really good last year from a metrics standpoint:
Didn't play a full season, but interestingly, Diontae Johnson performed at his best last year in many of the marks - some of which are not solely player-owned anyway - that people usually dog him for.
- 8.2 yards per target (career-best)
- 1.97 yards per route run (career-best)…— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) May 22, 2024
Oh, and he can flat-out ball!
Diontae Johnson pic.twitter.com/dXQupPKs37
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 11, 2024
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
In his first season playing alongside Tyreek Hill in Miami (2022), Waddle averaged 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game. Last season, that number dropped to 14.2 fantasy points per game. So what happened?
It could have been just random variability. He went from eight touchdowns in 2022 to just four in 2023 despite having the same number of red zone targets. But his YPRR still ranked in the top-8 among wide receivers, per PlayerProfiler. His efficiency, however, took a major hit in 2023. He went from 11.7 YPT and 18.1 YPC to 9.8 YPT and 14.1 YPC. Those numbers are still elite and still yielded solid fantasy value last season. But we know the ceiling is top-10 (as we saw in 2022), even with playing alongside the most elite weapon in the NFL in Hill.
So why will 2024 be different for Waddle? Well, he’s healthy heading into the season. Of course, we can’t bank on a full season of health, but that’s what we got from Waddle in his first two NFL seasons. Last season, he was in and out of a few games due to a multitude of injuries and just couldn’t get into a good rhythm.
He’s also due for positive touchdown regression after scoring just one touchdown every 26 targets. Meanwhile, Hill scored 13 touchdowns on 171 targets (one every 13.2 targets). Tyreek also had 25 red zone targets a year ago compared to just 11 of them in 2022. If even just some of those go to Waddle, we should see an uptick in penguin celebrations in 2024.
He was GONE when his feet hit the ground! 🐧 @D1__JW
📺: #MIAvsBUF on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/OppdDaKY2o pic.twitter.com/tdhvjv5Y2i— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2022
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