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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/25/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Tuesday, June 25th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, June 25th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (-260)
O/U: 10.5
Despite the high probability of a Red Sox victory tonight, I can't help but be scared off by their 15 blown saves so far this season. I will be locked in on the Red Sox to lead after five innings, due to Price's 16-5-7 record in the first five innings over the last three seasons at Fenway Park. Price has superb numbers against the main cogs in the White Sox order, so I will look for him shut them down tonight.
The Red Sox can get to the White Sox early as they send Carson Fulmer to the mound first in what seems to be a bullpen day. The F5 is a much more enticing value for the Red Sox in this matchup, as Price hasn't gone more than six innings yet this season. Also, the thought of having to sweat out a bet at -260 for three or four innings with the Red Sox bullpen is not something that I find too intriguing.
My Pick: Red Sox F5 -0.5 (-175)
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs (-110)
O/U: 12
The total could rise even higher after opening at 11.5. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, it is a scary thought to take the under, but I feel the weather could be a bit overvalued. If the number does climb higher, this will be an even bigger lock for me, even though I feel pretty comfortable at 12.
Both of these teams rank bottom of the league in fly-ball rate, with the Braves coming in 24th and the Cubs coming in 25th. Max Fried has also been one of the best ground-ball pitchers in baseball, ranking fifth at 53.5%. For the wind to be a factor, these teams will have to get the ball off the ground, which may not be an easy task. Adbert Alzolay makes his debut for the Cubs, who has shown some high fly-ball rates in the minors, but it wouldn't be the first time we see a pitcher have a solid outing in his debut as it takes a while for the Braves to figure him out.
My Pick: Under 12
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins (-110)
O/U: 9
Both pitchers in this game were blown up for six earned runs in their last start, with Blake Snell on the mound for the Rays and Kyle Gibson countering for the Twins. I'm always here for the good pitchers having bounce-back games, and I can see a scenario where both pitchers have this today. The Rays over on the road is 14-25-1 while the usually hard-hitting Twins record is only 15-20-2 at home. I'd love to rattle off some more trends here but I can't, this game just has a feel of a low-scoring pitching battle.
My Pick: Under 9
Los Angeles Dodgers (-116) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9.5
Ross Stripling returns to the Dodgers starting rotation tonight, a role he excelled in at the beginning of the season, boasting a 2.66 ERA before being sent to the bullpen. He is expected to go around four innings tonight but will hand the reins over to a bullpen that is more than capable of keeping runs off the board with a 4.33 ERA.
I will be interested to see how Robbie Ray fares tonight in an up and down season for him. He has been fairly consistent at home, recording a 3.66 ERA. Despite his numbers at home, the Diamondbacks have lost his last three starts at Chase Field, and are just 16-21 overall. The Dodgers are 20-17 on the road and have gone 7-3 in their last ten, while the Diamondbacks are 3-7.
My Pick: Under 9.5, Diamondbacks (-116)
Nate's YTD picks: 39-25-2
