RADIO
Hopefully, I speak for everyone when I say that this marks the beginning of the best part of the baseball season. From impact in-season trades to postseason races to the fall classic, there's no slowing down in terms of entertainment from here; I'm ready to run through a brick wall just thinking about it!
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's FIP projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Guess what, folks? We have the return of the eight-game week! The Padres, Mets, and Rockies all will play an extra game this week, leading to more action to look to take advantage of. That being said, that is accompanied by fewer seven-game weeks, making the number of games less than you may first think.
Another complication? The poor run-scoring environments hitters will deal with this week. There are no games in Colorado, Cincinnati, or Boston this week, and only five teams have a projected park factor above league average.
This makes this week perhaps the most difficult week to target hitters off the waiver wire, but consider this to find an edge when no one else sees it. So who is in a position to thrive this week? Let's take a closer look!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians
42% rostered
The modern prototype for a hitter involves someone who can do damage with the contact they make, even if it leads to a higher amount of strikeouts. For many, this is a trend that is discouraging to them, as it leads to less immediate action.
Regardless of your preferred method of play though, I think we can all agree that baseball is at its best when uniqueness can be embraced. That's what makes players like Steven Kwan so paramount to the entertainment value of the game.
A fifth-round pick from Oregon State in 2018, Kwan has always featured one tremendous strength that he's been able to use to his advantage – absurd contact ability. Yet in 2021, he started to profile as much more of a complete offensive force.
Not only did he have the lowest swinging-strike rate in the entire minor leagues, but he also hit for power (.199 ISO) while walking (10.6%) more than he struck out (9.1%). If there was any sort of power to add this rare combination of contact skills and plate discipline, the ceiling was quite high for him to be a strong offensive contributor, and that showed right away this year.
It was a bit of a surprise to see Kwan make Cleveland's opening day roster, but by in 15 of his first 19 plate appearances, the 24-year-old made an instant name for himself. From there, he hit some bumps in the road, but now is back to performing at an extremely high level:
Obviously, he hasn't been able to his unprecedented early peak, but we've comfortably seen Kwan stabilize as a hitter who'll have a solid .330-.340 weighted on-base average (wOBA), about 15-20% above league average.
Since June 1st, he's slashing .326/.380/.401, good for a 125 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), which after dealing with poor line-drive luck early on, was to be expected.
Now, unfortunately, the power that Kwan showcased in the minors last season has not come to fruition in the majors (2nd percentile barrel rate), but even then, there aren't many hitters who can hit for average like him, while he's back to leading off and not platooning in a pesky Guardians lineup. For someone with his type of on-base skills, that means plenty of runs scored.
Cleveland not only plays seven games this week, but all of the games are at home, with three coming against the Diamondbacks. Hopefully, a trade for a bat can help improve the quality of their lineup, but hitting ahead of Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor isn't too shabby.
Kwan has clearly settled in at the MLB level, and all signs point to a positive trajectory for him. If this team is going to be the Guardians of the AL Central, he'll certainly play a critical role down the stretch.
Luke Voit, 1B, San Diego Padres
33% rostered
This certainly isn't the first time Luke Voit has been on our radar, but let's go over how he got to this point again:
"Remember when Luke Voit was a folk hero in New York? Honestly, based on his production in his first three years there, you can see why that was the case:
- 2018 (161 PA): .322/.398/.671, 188 wRC+
- 2019 (510 PA): .263/.378/.464, 126 wRC+
- 2020: (234 PA): .277/.338/.610, 153 wRC+
It may have been a shortened season, but Voit led the league in home runs in 2020! There is a clear reason he was considered one of the best first basemen in baseball; few could match the offensive output he was capable of producing. Unfortunately in 2021, he dealt with multiple injuries limiting him to 241 plate appearances, and with a 111 wRC+, he couldn't quite match his previous level of production.
Clearly, the Yankees felt they needed a change at the first base position. Not only did they acquire Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline, but they then re-signed him to a two-year, $32 million contract, leaving Voit without a spot in a crowded lineup. Thus, he was traded to the Padres, a team in clear need of power, clearing the path for a fresh opportunity to get back to his old level of production."
Through May 13th, Voit simply wasn't hitting for the power (.148 ISO) that the Padres were hoping for. Thus, they felt incentivized to sign Robinson Cano to platoon with him at designated hitter, but that experiment didn't last long – he was demoted to Triple-A on June 1st. Since then, we've clearly seen the evolution of his power:
Since June 1st, Voit is hitting more than half of his batted balls 95 MPH or harder, while posting an absurd 21% barrel rate. If anything, more power should be on the horizon given those underlying numbers, while we've also seen his strikeout rate (28.2%) come down in July.
He's suffered from poor batted-ball luck in July, but make no mistake about it; he has been exactly what the Padres could have hoped for as of late.
Now, what better time to crank a few bombs and perform tremendously from a run production standpoint than in an eight-game week featuring five games against the Rockies?
Even playing in Dodger Stadium, the second-most friendly ballpark for righty home runs per Baseball Savant, is a major positive, while San Diego faces the weakest projected slate of starting pitchers.
All signs point to a major breakout coming eventually for Voit soon, so why not now? Surely, that's what everyone in San Diego is hoping for, perhaps with a certain someone from the Nationals in the mix as well.
MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals
Melendez: 28% rostered
Pasquantino: 19% rostered
Let the kids play!
With a 39-59 record entering Thursday, the Royals are in last place of the AL Central, and have the second-worst record in the American League. That being said, this season feels a little different than seasons past for Kansas City. Why? Well, arguably their top-three prospects entering the season are all in the show!
It's one thing to be struggling and have little optimism towards the future, but Royals fans can tune in every day and see key parts of their future core, which is finally the case here.
By now, we're all familiar Bobby Witt Jr., while we're still waiting for Nick Pratto to get his feet wet at the MLB level. Yet, there are other two players that have clearly established themselves as impact players moving forward.
Salvador Perez is under contract through 2025, but they'll certainly look to soften his load moving forward to prevent future injury, and they hope they have found their future backstop in MJ Melendez.
A second-round pick in 2017, Melendez struggled mightily (67 wRC+, 39.4% K) at a 20-year-old in High-A, causing his prospect stock to slide dramatically.
However, he reworked his swing and approach prior to 2021, and the results were absolutely fantastic: a 162 wRC+, strong plate discipline (14.1% BB, 21.7% K), with a lot of power (.337 ISO). Now, he's up at the MLB level performing at an above-average clip (104 wRC+), which is quite impressive for a catcher.
Really, there's a lot to be excited about Melendez. After all, all of his quality of contact metrics rank notably above-average, as does his 9.9% barrel rate. That portends to him having significant power potential, which after a bit of a dry spell, is coming back to fruition:
Every young player is going to go through their bumps and bruises, but we can solace in the fact that Melendez has clear power to bring to the table, has strong enough plate skills, and is also hitting leadoff for a lineup that has quietly performed well as of late (tied for 13th in wRC+ over past 30 days).
For a catcher, it's hard to beat that; the fact that the seventh-best projected catcher for the rest of the season per Fangraphs' auction calculator is available in 72% of leagues is very puzzling. Well, what are you waiting for?
Now, for the true prize! Whether you call him Italian Breakfast, Italian Nightmare, or Italian Beef, it doesn't matter – at the end of the day, Vinnie Pasquantino is going to hit, and hit some more. On the surface, the fact that he has just an 87 wRC+ and has been a below replacement-level player would make you question this, but let's take a larger view here:
- Power? You got it. Pasquantino's 13.7% barrel rate (albeit in a smaller sample) is right in line with Pete Alonso, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez. Meanwhile, his 57.% hard-hit rate would rank third only behind Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge.
- Contact skills? His 5.9% swinging-strike rate rank as the 17th-lowest among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Meanwhile, he's only strikng out 16.3% of the time, which would be too high given the underlying contact metrics.
Add in strong on-base skills, and you have a complete offensive player whose .267/.349/.490 slash-line projection from Steamer doesn't look exactly unreasonable.
Best of all, that's coming hitting third for the Royals every day. Kansas City plays seven games this week against several fly-ball heavy pitchers (Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi), meaning that this could be the time where Pasquantino truly bursts onto the scene.
In a few years, this is a hitter with the potential to be considered one of the best offensive first basemen in baseball, and that's not an overstatement. Soon enough, we'll be able to settle on a nickname, but for now, let's sit back and enjoy the mashing that's about to take place!
AJ Pollock, OF, Chicago White Sox
22% rostered
Heading into this offseason, it was well known the White Sox would trade reliever Craig Kimbrel, who was due $16 million this season and stated a desire to pitch in the ninth inning again.
After trade discussions took longer than expected, Chicago finally found a suitor in the Dodgers, but it wasn't prospects that they got back. Instead, as a win-now organization, they got back outfielder AJ Pollock in return, looking to solidify an offense that looked very strong on paper.
So far, with a .500 record and a below-average offense in wRC+, things have not gone as planned on the South Side. Certainly, Pollock, who currently boasts a 79 wRC+ and has been in-and-out of the team's lineup, hasn't helped matters with his struggles.
Well, today is a new day, and it's time for the 34-year-old to get back on track. After all, THE BAT X still projects him to post a .253/.310/.432 slashline (110 wRC+), while he's still barreling pitches up (8.8%) at an above-average clip and is due for notable positive regression with just a 6.3% home run/fly ball rate. All together, he's someone who should at least be 50th percentile in terms of hitting for average and power, which is more valuable than you'd think.
Interestingly, Pollock has also spent a lot of time in the third-spot of the White Sox order as of late, which could be critical with the White Sox featuring a strong combination of favorable ballparks and two pitching staffs (Royals and Rangers) who have struggled this season.
Simply from a run production standpoint, Pollock warrants a close look, while there's a reasonable chance a breakout could be on the horizon. As Theo Epstein once said, if not now, when? Keep that mindset with regards to Pollock this week.
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