RADIO
The baseball universe is really coming into its own when it comes to advanced data metrics that we can parse through, with hard-hit rates, exit velocities, spray charts and batted-ball outcomes all becoming accessible tools to throw in the toolkit before we go digging for answers.
Today's piece continues the series where we explore some notable gainers in categories that are largely associated with power. We've looked at hard-hit and fly-ball rates, and now we'll explore pull rates before tying it all together with a nice little piece at the end combining all three metrics. Some player profiles will briefly bring in the other metrics for context, but there's always more to explore.
We're including players here that have accrued at least 200 PAs in both 2015 and 2016 to have something actionable to utilize, but we'll omit names that are only relevant in 50-team leagues in order to address viable options.
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Top Pull Rate Gainers in 2016
| Player Name | 2016 Pull% | 2015 Pull% | Difference |
| Matt Holliday | 37.80% | 25.10% | 12.70% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 44.60% | 33.80% | 10.80% |
| Alcides Escobar | 41.40% | 31.50% | 9.90% |
| Aaron Hicks | 45.60% | 35.80% | 9.80% |
| Gregory Polanco | 49.20% | 39.40% | 9.80% |
| Brad Miller | 42.50% | 32.90% | 9.60% |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 39.10% | 29.60% | 9.50% |
| Yasmany Tomas | 41.00% | 31.70% | 9.30% |
| Danny Espinosa | 52.70% | 43.50% | 9.20% |
| Nick Hundley | 42.90% | 33.70% | 9.20% |
| Matt Carpenter | 48.10% | 39.30% | 8.80% |
| Rajai Davis | 43.60% | 34.90% | 8.70% |
| Prince Fielder | 41.20% | 32.50% | 8.70% |
| Logan Morrison | 50.00% | 41.70% | 8.30% |
| Angel Pagan | 40.10% | 31.80% | 8.30% |
| Mike Napoli | 47.60% | 39.30% | 8.30% |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 49.50% | 41.30% | 8.20% |
| Stephen Piscotty | 42.30% | 34.60% | 7.70% |
| Yasiel Puig | 43.00% | 35.50% | 7.50% |
| Jayson Werth | 42.90% | 35.60% | 7.30% |
What to Expect From These Pull Rate Gainers?
Matt Holliday, +12.7%
It’s somewhat unfair to include Holliday, who only had 277 plate appearances in an injury-shortened 2015, but people need to remember just how great of a hitter he is. Despite hitting only .246 last season, he brought his pull rate up to a five-year high mark of 37.8% alongside another five-year best in ISO (.215). While his age-37 season may see himself have to continue to sacrifice average for power, Yankee Stadium is one hell of a place to do so. Mark him as a nice later get in drafts considering he also had the third-best exit velocity per Statcast of those with more than 200 batted-ball events at 94.7 MPH. Only Nelson Cruz and Giancarlo Stanton beat him. Let that, and his NFBC ADP of 265.58 (OF63), sink in before you enter your draft room.
Xander Bogaerts, +10.8%
Bogaerts actually posted a higher pull rate (46.9%) in his 2014 campaign before he raised his average 80 points in 2015 by logging nearly identical pull, center and oppo rates (each between 32-34.2%), but he clearly made it work better this time around. He hit .294 instead of .240 and has added some muscle over two years to turn the 12 homers into 21. The nicest part is that his pull approach came with a lowered swinging-strike rate, meaning he didn’t sacrifice discipline for pop. While he did state that he lost himself in the second half as he attempted to direct the ball to certain parts of the field, he still had a high 43.3% pull rate in his stellar first half. There’s some worry here with that slump, but the power appears legitimate.
Alcides Escobar, +9.9%
While it didn’t seem like much – and really isn’t that fantasy relevant --- Escobar did up his homer count from three to seven. That said, he still doesn’t offer enough upside, with his 25-30 steal days apparently in the past, to be relevant beyond AL-only leagues. It's fun to note this, but not extremely practical.
Gregory Polanco, +9.8%
Polanco made up for 10 fewer steals by swatting 13 more homers in 2016, notching 22 total in his second full MLB season. His lowest monthly split in Pull% was 44.7% in May, with his highest being a 56% mark in August. Oddly enough, both coincided with his two most powerful months – he smacked six homers in each. That illustrates how even his floor is capable of serious pop. While injuries really zapped him down the stretch, he should enter 2017 healthy and could knock down the OF1 door if he can stay out of the trainer’s room.
Brad Miller, +9.6%
One of 2016’s real breakouts, Miller really came into his own with a full-time starting role in Tampa Bay. His pull rate shot up to 42.5% as he crushed 30 homers to the tune of a .239 ISO (from .144). Behind a defined role and an admitted power adjustment in his swing where he intensified his leg kick and swing speed, Miller got his pop alongside the usual worsened OBP (.329 to .304) and K rate (20.3% to 24.8%). Look for Miller to flash the power again in 2017, especially if he does things like pull the ball at his August rate of 50.7%. You know, the month where he mashed eight taters with 26 RBIs. While his average may suffer, it certainly appears as though Miller knows how to turn on the power should the situation call for it.
Paul Goldschmidt, +9.5%
While Goldy pulled the ball a lot more, he actually laced more grounders and line drives rather than getting lift on the ball. His 28.8% fly ball rate was a career low by 4%, and his hard-hit rate also dropped nearly 4%. This resulted in a career-low .192 ISO, which naturally still yielded 24 homers and nearly 100 RBIs. “Bad Goldschmidt” is still pretty damn good, especially when he steals a career-high 32 bags to offset the power dip. His 39.1% pull rate was identical to his 2014 mark, as was his 19% HR/FB rate, but unfortunately he just hit fewer flies. His bat is so talented where he doesn’t really need to pull the bat, with his other metrics being a bit more defining when it comes to his end game. He should bounce back in the power department, making him a strong first-round pick in all formats.
Yasmany Tomas, +9.3%
Tomas upped his aggressiveness at the dish after a rather quiet showing in 2015, with his pull rate really showing how comfortable he was in the batter’s box. He was getting that bat through the zone with authority and smashed 31 rockets as a result, with offense-friendly Chase Field only helping the cause. One can see from his spray charts below how well he used the entire field anyway, but the cluster of homers in the extreme left-field corner really illustrates the power translating:
Obviously, Tomas is going to have to overcome his current oblique injury and also fight off the regression police, but his approach in the batter's box is starting to really profile like a big bopper.
Matt Carpenter, +8.8%
Carp shot out to a 48.1% Pull% after never having surpassed 40% in his career, as he showed us all that his powerful 2015 was no fluke. He maintained his healthy fly-ball gains as well alongside a 4.9% jump in hard-hit rate, but of course his 2016 was abbreviated due to injury. He has the kind of talent in his bat where two seasons of similar profiling is good enough to establish a norm. St. Louis’ new first baseman should be viewed as a 25-30 homer candidate with more room for RBIs now that Dexter Fowler is leading off.
Rajai Davis, +8.7%
Why not post your highest pull rate and homer count for a full season at age-35? We know Davis came back into relevance with his speed, swiping 43 bags, but he really got out ahead of the ball more in 2016. His career average in that department prior to ’16 was 37.8% before he turned in this 43.6% effort. The most likely reason, especially when you consider his career-high 21.4% strikeout rate, is that he’s starting to compensate for an aging body by turning up the aggressiveness. Considering how he now has a key role in Oakland, Davis should be a strong late-round pick in 2017 drafts. While Oakland Coliseum is not the place for cheap power, he has 10-homer pop with 40-steal wheels. If this pull rate trend continues then the pop should hold, even if it comes with an average around .250 instead of in the .260s.
Mike Napoli, +8.3%
Napoli resurrected his power stroke in 2016 by bringing his HR/FB over 20% (20.5%) for the first time since 2013. He did so thanks to an engorged pull rate, a healthy +7% in the hard-hit department and a modest 3% gain in flies. While 34 homers, a career-high mark, was still above what we would expect from these metrics, Napoli certainly did all that he could to give himself a chance at establishing the new high-water marks. Don’t project him to defy this and exceed 30 homers again in 2017, but he appears to have put the down seasons of 2014 and ’15 behind him.
Kevin Kiermaier, +8.2%
We meet again, Mr. Kiermaier. His pull rate was already a juicy 45.1% in the first half before he brought that bad boy over 50% (51.8%) in the second half. While this was joined by a small HR/FB slip (11.9% to 10.6%), it notably came with a 5.5% drop in his fly-ball rate that led to lesser power -- his .211 ISO in the first half fell to .140 after the Midsummer Classic. One does need to note how Kiermaier only had 137 PAs before the July break compared to 277 second-half PAs, but this may point to his more extreme approach being a bridge too far. Keep this in mind at the outset of 2017, but his appearance in all three of these articles means you should target him. We'll speak more on that in the cumulative piece.
Stephen Piscotty, +7.7%
Piscotty’s season-ending line of 86/22/85/7/.273 was a solid showing for the youngster’s first full season, though his .295 first-half average was much cleaner than the .247 mark after the break. He did hit 11 homers in each half, though his strikeout rate rose nearly 7% in the second half with a 1.5% jump in his pull rate. He likely won’t be the .305 hitter that we saw in his 63-game 2015 debut, but his healthy Minor League batting averages in the .280s and .290s show that his first-half pace is viable. Granted, that is pretty much his ceiling, but there’s a lot to be said for a young guy getting comfortable with pulling the ball more at age-25 in a rather potent lineup. The biggest factor will be whether he can pull up that 32.1% hard-hit rate, so keep his full range of outcomes in mind.
Yasiel Puig, +7.5%
There are many out there who so badly want Puig to deliver, but all we've seen is a not-so-dull decline since his promising 2013 debut. Last season not only saw him post his worst ISO yet (.153), but he was demoted to Triple-A in lieu of Josh Reddick. Reddick didn't dazzle and eventually, Puig returned and actually looked pretty darn good with a .281/.338/.561 triple slash in 65 PAs. He pulled the ball 45.5% of the time over that span, which is his most aggressive split to date. It joined a nice 38.6% hard-hit rate, and while the small sample size warning looms, this is about as encouraging as it gets for the electric outfielder heading into 2017. While Reddick has left LA, the Dodgers still sport a crowded depth chart that will force Puig to earn his playing time, so hope for those improvements to hold.
Jayson Werth, +7.3%
While Werth isn't a huge fantasy factor anymore at age-38, he did post his best power numbers since 2013's 25-homer campaign by crossing the 20-homer threshold last season. While 2014 and '15 weren't astounding in the power department, this had some backing in his Pull%. His usual 40-42% mark had fallen to roughly 35% in both of those seasons, but 2016 saw it rebound to 42.9%. Along with that came the pop, so perhaps Werth is worth grabbing for those of you in deeper leagues searching for a cheap 18-20 homers.
