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Mo takes a look at the top teams in the AFC and NFC and assess which teams have the best chances of winning the Super Bowl in 2023.
As the playoff hunt gets underway, several teams atop the AFC and NFC are looking to lay claim to their respective conference's number-one seed and get ready for a run to play in Super Bowl LVIII.
After blowout wins against the Cowboys and Eagles, the Niners have emerged as the front-runner for the title. Is there anyone who can stop them at this point?
With Week 15 approaching, we wanted to look closely at some of the league’s most convincing contenders and state their case to hoist the Lombardi come February.
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#1 - The San Francisco 49ers
There might not be a more complete team in football right now than the 49ers. Sitting at 10-3 and atop the NFC, this team is the No. 1 scoring defense, rushing defense, and top-ranked in total DVOA.
That’s just on the defensive side of the ball. This offense is completely stacked with Pro Bowl talent across the board. With the likes of TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffery, WRs Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, and QB Brock Purdy, general manager John Lynch has put together a masterclass of talent and it is paying big-time dividends.
This offense accounts for the league’s second-best scoring offense, third-best rushing offense, and fourth-best passing offense. Pairing that with their elite defense and you’ve got a recipe for a Super Bowl-winning squad.
They’ve also tallied some incredibly convincing wins so far this regular season. They embarrassed arguably their biggest threat in the NFC when they beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5 by a score of 42-10. More recently, they took care of business with ease against last year’s NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, when they beat them on the road in Week 13 by a score of 43-19.
One area of distress for the Niners in years past has been injuries. The injury bug reared its ugly head at the worst time for San Fran last year, when Purdy went down with an elbow injury in the NFC Championship game that would require off-season surgery. Then backup QB Josh Johnson would also go down with an injury, having them resort to their emergency quarterback in McCaffery.
So far it looks like their injury luck has turned for the better this year. The Niners have a total of just seven players on IR, putting them in the bottom ten lowest in the league.
There are still a few questions surrounding this San Fran team before we crown them champs. Can you really win a Super Bowl with a second-year QB who was the last pick of his draft? Can HC Kyle Shanahan finally secure the big one after a stretch of blown leads in the playoffs?
Only time will tell. But as for right now, there’s probably no safer bet than this Niners squad playing for the Super Bowl come February.
#2 - The Baltimore Ravens
Heading over to the AFC, a recent stretch of upsets across the league has the Baltimore Ravens on an inside track to get the No. 1 seed for the playoffs. They currently sit at 10-3 and are in lone possession of first place.
This is another team getting it done on both sides of the ball. With an MVP playmaker in QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is currently sixth in total yards per game with the league’s best-rushing offense. On top of that, they’re fourth in total scoring averaging 27.8 points per game.
Even Lamar Jackson’s teammates can’t believe some of the stuff he’s capable of doing😭 pic.twitter.com/lcOem5AuiY
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) December 14, 2023
As is tradition with Baltimore, this team defines itself with defense and they’ve done a great job of that up to this point. They currently have the league’s second-best scoring defense, second-best defense in terms of yards allowed, second-ranked in total DVOA, and are leading the league in sacks.
They find themselves just flat-out dominating opponents, especially at home. Baltimore currently holds an average scoring margin of 11.0, good for the third-highest in football. We saw that on display when they took care of some capable NFC opponents beating the Detroit Lions in Week 7 by a score of 38-6, and later following it up with a Week 9 37-9 blowout over the Seattle Seahawks.
Similarly to San Fran, this team has struggled mightily with injuries over the past few seasons. Jackson has missed five games in each of the past two seasons, both in the second half of the year as the team was gearing up for the playoffs. Fingers crossed that this trend doesn’t continue into this year as well.
One other area of concern for Baltimore has been blown leads. All three of their losses this season have come in games they had leads in going into the fourth quarter. The most extreme example of the three was in Week 10 when Baltimore squandered a 14-point advantage to the Cleveland Browns who would beat them 33-31.
Barring that they can clean up a few of those areas for the season's final stretch, this Ravens squad can go toe-to-toe with any team in the league and are certainly in contention to play in the season's final game at Allegiant in February.
#3 - The Kansas City Chiefs
In the most underwhelming Chiefs season during QB Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the starter, there is still no counting this team out for when it matters most.
After back-to-back losses, the Chiefs are currently 8-5 and in third place in the AFC and only one game ahead of the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. As it looks right now, the Chiefs will be playing some road playoff games for the first time since Mahomes has become the starter.
It’s not all bad news, though. This Chiefs' defense is hands down the best they’ve seen in recent memory. They currently allow just 17.5 points per game which has them third in the league, and have held opponents to just under 300 yards of offense per game, good for the sixth-best in the league.
Yes, this wide receiver room is not getting the job done for Mahomes and HC Andy Reid right now. They lead the league in drops with 26, some of which have triggered some game-altering outcomes. Yet, this passing offense is still averaging 254 yards per game through the air, the sixth-highest in the league.
While things may look bleak relative to what we’re used to from KC, the door is still wide open for them to make a run for the Super Bowl. History has shown us what having the best quarterback and head coach combo paired with an elite defense can do when it’s time for playoff football.
#4 - The Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are looking to repeat as NFC Champions again this season and are currently 10-3 after dropping their last two games. While they have trended downward over the past few weeks, it’s worth contextualizing that they just had a five-game stretch against some of the most complete teams in football and still managed to come out of it with a 3-2 record.
A favorable rest-of-season schedule helps the Eagles’ case as they look to reclaim the No. 1 seed in the NFC and benefit from home-field advantage and a bye. Philly’s last four opponents hold a .365 win percentage, the lowest of all 32 teams.
The highlight of this year’s team has been their offensive and defensive line play. With the PFF ranked No. 1 offensive line, they currently have a 76% run block win rate which is the best in the league, and a 65% pass block win rate which is the fifth best.
On the defensive line, they have a 34% run-stop win rate which is second best, and a 49% pass rush win rate which puts them as the seventh best in the league. Their run defense is currently allowing 94 yards per game, good for the sixth-lowest in the league.
It’s been their secondary that has poised some issues for this team over their recent stretch. Right now, this secondary is bottom-five in the league in passing yards allowed per game. This area has been their unwinding in their recent losses to the 49ers and Cowboys.
If the Eagles beat Seattle on Monday night, Jalen Hurts will have a victory over every single NFC team.
He’s only been a starter for three years and is just 25 years old. Insane. pic.twitter.com/NKdb2jkSob
— Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_) December 12, 2023
We saw last year how connected and together this team has been under HC Nick Sirriani and QB Jalen Hurts’ leadership, and it’s fair to expect this team to have some repeat success gearing up for another Super Bowl run where Philly can look to complete the job they couldn’t last year.
#5 - The Dallas Cowboys
There might not be a hotter team in football right now than the Cowboys and no one with a more convincing MVP case than QB Dak Prescott. They’re currently amidst a five-game win streak after their 33-13 win against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14.
Over this span, Prescott has been playing lights out. In his last eight games, he’s been completing passes at a 70% rate and averaging over 300 yards per game. He’s also accounted for 25 touchdowns, and just two interceptions in this span.
Averaging over 32 points per game, this is currently the league’s most potent scoring offense. They also find themselves in the top five of yards per game, and with the second-most prolific passing offense.
The knock on this team and Prescott in years past has been protecting the football. After almost leading the league in turnovers in 2022 with 23 total, they have turned the ball over just 11 times in 2023 which has them tied for the least in the league. A complete 180-degree turn in an area this team needed it most.
The defense has done a great job under DC Dan Quinn as well. They currently have a top-five scoring defense, a top-three defense in yards per game, and lead the league in defensive touchdowns with six total.
They did drop two games against some tough NFC opponents when they lost to the Niners in Week 5 and on the road in Philly in Week 9. It’s worth keeping an eye on how this team performs in their next two games when they go on the road to Buffalo and Miami, as both teams will pose tough challenges for the Cowboys.
This team has lacked playoff success under Prescott, as they have a record of 2-4 in the postseason with him as the starter. That being said, it looks like he’s taken a huge leap in his age-30 season and the Cowboys will be looking to silence the doubters on the road to the Super Bowl this postseason.
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