RADIO
Each season, the NFL welcomes a new group of players via the league's draft. These first-year players often intrigue fantasy managers due to their blank slates of careers. Sure, many underperform expectations and fail to amount to any fantasy relevance. Others, though, emerge as members of the NFL's elite class of superstars, and this potential proves to be irresistible for many.
Rookie quarterbacks can often find the field quickly, leading to major fantasy success for the best among them. Justin Herbert, for instance, stood out in a big way in 2020 for the Los Angeles Chargers. Herbert averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game as a rookie, the seventh-most among all quarterbacks. Another quarterback who impressed in his first season was Arizona's Kyler Murray, who averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game in 2019.
Last year's quarterback class was deemed to be weaker, but San Francisco's Brock Purdy still managed to become fantasy-relevant out of nowhere by the end of the season. Purdy was the league's QB9 over the final six weeks of the season. Which first-year quarterbacks have a chance to match their influence this year? Let's take a dive into the top four rookie quarterbacks who have chances to make immediate impacts in 2023.
Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson began his college career in 2020, but he played very sparingly for the Florida Gators as a freshman, throwing just two passes and running the ball only seven times. He saw the field a lot more frequently as a sophomore, including when he got his first career start versus Georgia. While that game went quite poorly for Richardson (82 passing yards, 2 INTs), he still provided plenty of flashes of his potential.
Richardson took over as the full-time starter in Gainesville for the 2022 season. In the season opener, Richardson passed for 168 yards and ran for 106, scoring three touchdowns on the ground in an impressive 29-26 victory over Utah. He was very inconsistent throughout the year, though, finishing his 12-start season with 2,549 passing yards, a 53.8 percent completion percentage, 17 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, 654 rushing yards, and nine rushing touchdowns.
While his college resume may not be elite, Richardson's athletic profile is arguably the best ever for a quarterback. He is a big man at 6'4" and 244 pounds, and his 10-inch hands also are quite large (95th percentile). Moreover, Richardson managed to run a remarkable 4.43-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, a 99th-percentile mark among quarterbacks and good for a 99th-percentile Speed Score. He also set a QB record in the vertical jump.
The Indianapolis Colts opted to select Richardson with the fourth selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, making him their presumed quarterback of the future. Richardson also has already beaten out Gardner Minshew II to become the Colts quarterback of the present, as he was named the Week 1 starter on August 15. Although his preseason play has been somewhat hit-or-miss, his talent is evident.
Richardson is still very raw. He started only 13 games in college, and the numbers show it. His accuracy has been poor; his completion percentage was below 60 percent in eight of his 12 starts in 2022, and four times he completed under half of his passes. Immediately after the Utah game last year, Richardson went 14 for 35 for 143 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks against Kentucky. He won't be playing like Josh Allen immediately, to be sure, despite the comparisons between the two.
Still, Richardson's rushing potential should be enough to make him a viable fantasy option early. Justin Fields, for example, passed for less than 150 yards per game last season, but his dominant rushing production made him the QB5 on a per-game basis. The Colts offense should be subpar this year, though, especially with Jonathan Taylor both injured and displeased with the team at the moment. Richardson is unlikely to be as successful this year as Fields was in 2022.
Richardson's ADP is the QB15 right now. His upside means that he provides great value for fantasy managers at this price. While rostering two quarterbacks in a one-QB league is generally inadvisable, pairing Richardson with a safer, low-end QB1 is a solid strategy. The Colts are betting on Richardson's potential in a big way, and it is time for fantasy managers to do the same when building their teams.
Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young's time with the Alabama Crimson Tide started with him sitting behind Mac Jones in 2020, and he threw just 22 passes as a freshman. Young took over as the team's starter in 2021, though, and he absolutely dominated. He won the Heisman Trophy, the Davey O'Brien Award, the Manning Award, and the Maxwell Award, and he was also named the AP Offensive Player of the Year and the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. He passed for 4,872 yards, 47 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, and he added three more scores on the ground.
Young returned to Tuscaloosa in 2022 with high expectations. While his production was not quite as gaudy as in his Heisman season, Young still performed at an elite level. He finished the year with 3,328 passing yards, 32 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 185 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. Young placed sixth in the Heisman voting, with USC quarterback Caleb Williams winning the award.
Young's college career was remarkable, but questions about his size lingered. At the Scouting Combine, Young was measured at just 5'10", and debates raged about whether he was too small to merit being the number one draft pick. Despite a draft process that saw Ohio State product C.J. Stroud become the favorite to go first for a while, Young ultimately was selected with the top pick by the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers have already named Young their Week 1 starter, an unsurprising development given his draft position and relative lack of competition in Charlotte. Carolina's current group of wideouts is unimpressive; while Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr. are both fine receivers and second-round rookie Jonathan Mingo has some promise, there is no true number-one option for Young to lean on as a rookie.
Unlike Richardson, Young will not have the rushing numbers to boost his fantasy outlook either. He had just 162 rushing yards over his three seasons with Alabama, although he isn't a statue in the pocket. Young's ability to improvise while keeping track of the defenders around him is next-level. His creativity and intelligence combined to produce many great plays in college, including one perfect example against LSU last year.
In the preseason, Young played sparingly. In his first appearance, he threw only six passes, completing four for 21 yards. The week after, Young again had just six throws, this time connecting on three of them for 35 yards. His final preseason outing was his best, as he completed seven of 12 passes for 73 yards against the Lions. Moreover, he also tossed his first NFL touchdown, a 16-yarder to Adam Thielen.
Young's value in dynasty formats is high, but he is unlikely to be a significant fantasy contributor in year one in one-QB formats. He should be considered a low-end QB2 option, and his ADP mostly reflects this. Young has been going as the QB25 in drafts, and while he does provide some value relative to that position, outside of Superflex leagues he should be left on the waiver wire rather than drafted.
C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud was a consensus four-star recruit entering college, and he committed to the Ohio State Buckeyes in December 2019. He had to sit behind starter Justin Fields as a freshman, but he was able to land the starting job after Fields was drafted in 2021. Stroud compiled absurd numbers as a sophomore, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 4,435 yards, 44 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. He was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year for his efforts.
As a junior, Stroud again played extremely well, leading Ohio State to the College Football Playoff. He posted a completion percentage of 66.3 percent, threw for 3,688 yards, tossed 41 touchdowns, and was picked off only six times. Stroud repeated as the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, and he finished third in the Heisman voting. All of his accomplishments and talents led to Stroud becoming a top-tier option in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Where Stroud would end up being selected was unclear all the way leading up to draft day. For a long time after the Panthers traded up to the first pick, the assumption would be that Stroud would be their choice, given his size (6'3", 214 pounds) being more prototypical than Young's. However, Stroud soon faced questions of his own when he reportedly performed poorly on the S2 Cognition Test. Stroud wound up being selected second by the Houston Texans.
Stroud has solid arm strength and mechanics, but his accuracy is what made him such a strong prospect. His ball placement made him stand out from his peers in this year's draft class, especially with his ability to drop deep passes into the perfect spots. His completion percentages were impressive, but the tape and highlight reels further reinforce the notion that Stroud is an extremely precise passer.
One major downside to Stroud's fantasy outlook as a rookie is the utter lack of weapons in Houston for him to work with. After throwing to eventual first-round picks Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in college, plus future first-round picks like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, Stroud will have a rude awakening this year with Nico Collins, Robert Woods, John Metchie III, and Tank Dell as his top wideouts.
Stroud also struggled in his preseason action. The rookie threw only four passes in his first outing and still was intercepted once. He proceeded to complete seven of 12 passes for 60 yards in the week after, and in his final appearance, he went two-for-four with 16 yards and his first touchdown. His regular season performances will likely be similar; he will post highlights and have some good games, but other moments will reflect his youth and poor situation.
With a fitting ADP of QB27, Stroud, like Young, should not be drafted in one-QB redraft formats. Moreover, he should not even be viewed as a QB2 for Superflex leagues, due to his subpar supporting cast, lack of rushing potential (136 rushing yards in three seasons), and inexperience. Still, as a rookie starter, Stroud has the opportunity to exceed expectations; this is why he should be monitored throughout the season as a potentially impactful first-year quarterback.
Will Levis - Tennessee Titans
Will Levis spent his freshman and sophomore seasons in college with the Penn State Nittany Lions, serving as a backup to Sean Clifford in both 2019 and 2020. In those two years combined, Levis had 61 completions on 102 attempts (59.8 percent) for 644 yards (6.3 YPA), three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Before the 2021 season, Levis transferred to Kentucky, where he would close out his college career.
In his two years as the starter for the Wildcats, Levis found some success. As a junior, he completed 66.0 percent of his passes for 2,826 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, and he led Kentucky to an impressive 10-3 season. Last year, he connected on 65.4 percent of his throws for 2,406 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 10 picks, with his team slipping to a 7-6 record. He also rushed for 11 touchdowns between the two years as well.
Levis received a lot of buzz ahead of the NFL Draft, with many mock drafts listing him as a projected top-five pick. His physical traits are impressive, especially his arm strength. However, he faced a lot of concerns regarding his mediocre accuracy and his relatively high amounts of interceptions. Levis shockingly ended up falling all the way out of the first round before being selected by the Tennessee Titans with the 33rd pick.
Levis is capable of making all kinds of throws due to his prolific arm talent, and he is also fairly mobile; at 6'4", 229 pounds, and with decent speed, Levis can be a powerful runner when given the opportunity. His experience in pro-style systems in college was also a big plus for his profile. Unfortunately, Levis's negatives paint the picture of a raw player who will need to be polished by a quality coaching staff before he can unlock his true potential. For that reason, he is currently stuck behind both Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis on the Titans' depth chart.
Willis and Levis have been competing for the backup role all offseason. In his first preseason appearance, Levis completed nine of 14 passes for 85 yards and an interception. He then sustained a thigh injury in practice shortly afterward and was held out of the team's remaining two preseason games. Therefore, Willis's fairly solid performances went uncontested, putting Levis at a disadvantage.
If Levis is somehow able to make it onto the field as a rookie, he would have an okay crop of weapons around him. Running back Derrick Henry is also nice to have around to ease the pressure on the quarterback, and DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks make for a decent receiving duo. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo also should be a quality option in the passing game, but the depth at both receiver and tight end is lacking.
Levis's ADP is irrelevant because he should not be drafted in any season-long leagues. He has no clear path to playing time; even if Tannehill falters or goes down with an injury, Willis may be the one who takes his place. Levis is merely someone to keep tabs on as the season progresses because, if things break his way, he could achieve some degree of fantasy relevance by the end of the season.
