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It's fair to say that most rookies come with a premium in fantasy drafts. Many fantasy managers reach for the shiny new toy and can suck any value out of drafting them. Even still, some rookies have enough upside that it makes worth reaching for them a little earlier than perhaps others would.
Here, we're going to look at five rookie players who could have big seasons in 2025. All of them are worth special consideration in your drafts and even drafting them a round or two earlier than others can provide you with fantasy value.
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Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
Crews is currently going in the mid-rounds of NFBC drafts. That might seem a little early to be drafting someone with 31 MLB games of experience. But, we're also looking at a player who could be the Major League stolen base leader in 2025.
Last year, Crews tallied 25 steals in 100 Minor League games before being called up by the Nationals. He then stole 12 bases in 31 games for Washington. With an average sprint speed of 29.3 ft/sec (93rd percentile), it's not difficult to believe Crews could steal 40 bases in 2025.
Much of that will depend on Crews getting on base enough. In his limited MLB sample, Crews had an 8.3% BB% which is similar to his Minor League walk-rate (8.2% BB%).
Crews also played 23 of the 31 games as the Nationals' leadoff or number-two hitter. That should mean Crews gets plenty of opportunities to steal bases. The speed and position in the lineup will also help Crews score runs.
Even with a .218/.288/.353 slash line on a team that ranked 25th in runs scored (660), Crews scored 12 runs in 31 games. Providing he can increase that batting average, Crews can use his speed on the bases to score ~80 runs.
The Nationals' batting lineup looks better heading into 2025 than it did a year ago. A full season of James Wood and the addition of Nathaniel Lowe will help the team score more runs than in 2024. Even with tempered expectations, ~70 RBI isn't beyond Crews.
Crews had good hard-hit metrics in the minors (and the majors). We should see at least 15 home runs from him in 2025, with 20 homers a possibility. While there will undoubtedly be some growing pains, Crews has the upside of being a top-25 outfielder in his first full season as a major leaguer.
Matt Shaw, 3B, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have been busy this offseason. The addition of Kyle Tucker will help their offense and with Isaac Paredes moving to Houston in the trade, a spot at third base opened up for the Cubs. It's a spot that Shaw will get a chance to lock down as his own for a long time.
Cubs top prospect Matt Shaw will get "long look" at 3B, Hoyer said: "He has to earn that job, I'm not going to gift him that on a conference call in the middle of Dec."
Michael Busch does not sound like 3B option. Hoyer said they see him as a Gold Glove 1B & that's their focus.
— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) December 17, 2024
If Shaw can carry his 2024 Minor League season into 2025, it's easy to believe he can comfortably outperform his ADP. Currently on NFBC, Shaw has an ADP of ~329. That will drop as the offseason progresses now he's assured of being the Cubs Opening Day third baseman.
In 121 games across Double-A and Triple-A, Shaw hit .284/.379/.488 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, 78 runs, and 31 stolen bases. With an 18.2% K% and 11.9% BB%, Shaw showed the plate discipline that should translate into success in the Majors.
Shaw has the talent to be a contributor in the five main fantasy categories. With the Cubs offense again set to be better than average, there is a clear path for Shaw to be a top-10 third baseman in 2025. A 20/20 season is within reach and so is the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Tomoyuki Sugano, SP, Baltimore Orioles
While the Orioles' offseason has been underwhelming, the addition of Sugano is worth fantasy consideration. A 35-year-old pitcher who has never played in MLB before might seem like an odd fantasy option, but Sugano shouldn't be dismissed in drafts.
Trying to ascertain how well someone transitions to a different league and country isn't easy. There are plenty of variables we cannot quantify so we can only focus on what we do know. And what Sugano has shown is an ability to keep runs off the board.
With 12 years of pitching in NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) behind him, Sugano has plenty of experience. Sugano also has the pedigree, with three Central League MVP awards and two Eiji Sawamura Awards (given to the best starting pitcher) during his career in Japan.
Sugano had a 1.67 ERA in 2024. That ended a run of three consecutive seasons in which Sugano failed to post a sub-3.00 ERA. With a 2.43 ERA across his 12 seasons, we can see why Sugano has won the awards he has and why the Orioles were keen to sign the veteran pitcher.
As shown below, Sugano is coming off his best season for some time. The issue is a lack of strikeouts. It's something that will suppress Sugano's fantasy value. He more than makes up for it with a measly WHIP aided by excellent control.
| Year | G | IP | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K | BB |
| 2021 | 19 | 115.2 | 6-7 | 3.19 | 0.994 | 102 | 25 |
| 2022 | 23 | 147.0 | 10-7 | 3.12 | 1.116 | 104 | 26 |
| 2023 | 14 | 77.2 | 4-8 | 3.36 | 1.094 | 54 | 15 |
| 2024 | 24 | 156.2 | 15-3 | 1.67 | 0.945 | 111 | 16 |
| Career | 276 | 1857.0 | 136-74 | 2.43 | 1.035 | 1585 | 347 |
The other issue is volume. Sugano averaged over 18o IP in his first six years in NPB. He's averaged 131 IP in his last six years. Sugano's 156.2 IP in 2024 was his most in a season since 2018. It's unlikely Sugano will end up being a workhorse and topping 180 IP in 2025, though ~160 IP is in play.
Despite that, Sugano can still provide fantasy value. Since signing with the Orioles (December 16), Sugano's ADP in NFBC drafts is ~451. He's a late-round option who should be able to help your ratios. Providing you don't overreach for Sugano in drafts, he can be a solid anchor in your rotation.
Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
While the first three players covered have clear routes to regular playing time, that is not the case for Mayo. Even if they don't add another bat, the Orioles have a crowded infield. There's still the possibility Baltimore trades a hitter away for pitching, which could include Mayo or free up a space for him.
The talent is certainly there with Mayo. And you have to believe that will lead to playing time and success. Mayo struggled in his first taste of the majors. In 17 games, he hit .098/.196/.098. That's not nearly enough of a sample to write off Mayo and his numbers in the minors are impressive.
Mayo has played 151 games at the Triple-A level over the last two seasons. He hit .279/.376/.543 with 34 homers, 122 RBI, 97 runs, and five stolen bases. Mayo did have a 24.2% K% at Triple-A and struck out 22 times in 46 plate appearances in the majors. That's the one knock against Mayo.
But Mayo also had a 12.8% BB%, which should help him in the bigs. Mayo is currently going outside the top 300 picks in most NFBC drafts. In standard leagues, he's a late-round flyer. And one that will pay off handsomely if Mayo can work his way into regular at-bats.
Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B, Miami Marlins
Speaking of late-round flyers, let me introduce you to De Los Santos. Ordinarily, there's very little interest in drafting a Marlins hitter. Especially one that may start the season in the Minors. Given the dearth of options in Miami, they have reason to give De Los Santos a chance to play regularly.
If you don't know what sort of hitter De Los Santos is, the below post sums him up perfectly. He has prodigious power and appalling plate discipline. It's unlikely that will work against top-tier pitching. But, the Marlins may as well give De Los Santos a chance to see if he can provide some much-needed thump.
Deyvison De Los Santos (MIA) has the most comical Statcast metrics. Upper echelon power with absolutely atrocious plate discipline
What do you mean he has a 44.9 Chase% ?! pic.twitter.com/12QgoyM5Ve
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) December 18, 2024
De Los Santos hit 40 homers in 137 minor league games in 2024. And he does own a .264/.311/.523 slash line at Triple-A (99 games). Even if De Los Santos has a .220 batting average and .280 OBP (on-base percentage) in the majors, he could hit 30+ homers.
On a team that has little to no offense and needs to be creative to score runs, Miami giving De Los Santos the chance to hit for them makes sense. If your fantasy team is lacking power as the draft goes on, you could do a lot worse than taking De Los Santos as a late pick 'hail mary.'
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