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Steve Janik's NCAA college football betting picks for 10/5/19. He analyzes CFB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Last week, we had a tough beat whenever Khalil Tate of Arizona was inactive and UCLA was able to keep it close the entire time. I've had three straight weeks with a 1-2 record, which makes for some tough Saturday's. However, the further we get into the season, the more information we have available to us.
- Week 5 Picks: 1-2 (33%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 10-7 (59%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NCAA schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet.
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USF at UConn (+11)
O/U: 51
Last week, the Bulls of USF trailed 41-0 to SMU before they sniffed the scoreboard. They're trying to stick with Jordan McCloud at quarterback, but a wrist injury sidelined him late last week. This is mainly because the offensive line allowed 10 sacks to SMU and have allowed 20 throughout the first four games. As an offense, the Bulls average just 305 yards per game, which ranks them among the 10-worst in the country. Their head coach Charlie Strong is on the thinnest of ice, and it's hard to expect anything better anytime soon.
On the other sideline, UConn is quite possibly worse than USF on offense. While they average seven more yards of offense a game, the Huskies average just 17.8 points per game, ranking them 122nd in the nation. Now they’re going to be without newly-appointed starting quarterback Steven Krajewski (broken clavicle). Expect running back Kevin Mensah to take on a heavy workload, which doesn’t bode well for UConn, as they average just 2.9 yards per rush so far.
This game is gross and features two train wreck programs that don't have much to look forward to. Neither side has scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent this year, while USF has lost nine-straight against FBS opponents, dating back to last season. It's hard to believe either offense will move the ball consistently, thus keeping this one pretty low-scoring.
Pick: Under 51
Ball State at Northern Illinois (-5)
O/U: 55.5
Ball State is 1-3 after a tough schedule to start the year. Luckily for them, they’re coming off a bye week to open up MAC play. They’re led by quarterback Drew Plitt who has been great with over 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns. They have a trio of receivers with over 200 yards apiece, along with running back Caleb Huntley who has 283 yards and three scores. The defense hasn’t been bad, considering they played two P5 schools, but they still have a problem giving up points in bulk. Ultimately, their success will come on offense, but if the offensive line can’t protect Plitt, it’s no going for the Cardinals.
If Ball State had a tough early-season schedule, Northern Illinois went through the gauntlet, taking three-straight losses against Utah, Nebraska, and Vanderbilt. They’re led by quarterback Ross Bowers, a Cal transfer who has done nothing stellar but has brought a new dimension to the offense. On the ground, the Huskies haven’t gotten much out of Tre Harbison or Jordan Nettles, but it’s only a matter of time before the run game gets going.
Most recently, NIU is 3-0 on the points against Ball State, and 8-2 ATS dating back to 2009. On the other side, Ball State is 7-17 ATS in MAC games since coach Mike Neu took over in 2016. The talent on NIU’s side should take over at home and they should be able to win by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Northern Illinois -5
Texas at West Virginia (+10.5)
O/U: 61
The Longhorns snuck away from Oklahoma State with a 36-30 victory two weeks ago, and now they have to travel to West Virginia a week before they welcome No. 6 Oklahoma. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger has been one of the top signal callers in the county, leading an offense that averages just under 500 yards a game. As the No. 11-ranked team, he obviously has some help with Keontay Ingram and Roschon Johnson, who’ve combined for over 440 yards on the ground. On the defensive side, they’ve done a good job limiting lesser teams, but struggling against LSU and OK State.
West Virginia has FBS wins over N.C. State and Kansas, but this is very clearly their biggest test. New coach Neal Brown is focusing on emphasizing the run, and despite struggles early, the Mountaineers have rushed for 365 yards and six touchdowns over the last two. Transfer quarterback Austin Kendall has been effective over the same stretch but he must continue to take care of the football. However, the defense will need to improve at stopping the run (172 rushing yards allowed per game) if they want to have a chance a slowing down Texas.
Historically, WVU plays Texas close, and actually leads the series, 4-3 straight up, since joining the Big 12. According to Chris Fallica of ESPN, Texas has failed to cover the spread in six of the last seven years in the game leading up to playing Oklahoma. Alternatively, the Mountaineers have one of the best home ATS records since the beginning of 2018 at 5-1-2. It’s easy to think that the Longhorns roll here, but there’s something be said about a Texas looking ahead.
Pick: West Virginia +10.5
