X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Top College Basketball Betting Picks for the NCAA Tournament - National Championship

NCAA college basketball CBB betting picks march madness

Nick Federline's college basketball betting picks for the 2021 NCAA Tournament's National Championship He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.

As was predicted in November, the best two teams in the country - Gonzaga and Baylor - will meet for the National Championship on Monday night. The teams were originally slated to play on December 5, but fans were robbed of the opportunity to see that game due to COVID-19 protocols. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament coverage and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and betting picks.

Saturday's expert betting picks provided a nice 2-0 boost to the year. In the opening game, Baylor manhandled Houston from the opening tip en route to a convincing 19-point victory. In the second national semifinal, UCLA and Gonzaga gave America arguably the best single game of the tournament. While Gonzaga was able to eke out the win on freshman phenom Jalen Suggs' buzzer-beating three-pointer, UCLA was able to play well above their weight as 14-point underdogs giving us our second betting win of the day and giving Bruins fans plenty to be excited about for the future of this young squad. The season record to date is 40-25.

Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks for the National Championship (Monday, April 5, 2021). Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time. Season record to date: 40-25.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

The National Championship

The National Championship tips off on Monday, April 5, 2021, at 9:20pm ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, and will be nationally televised by CBS. Jim Nantz, Grant Hill and Bill Raftery will be on the call. The NCAA approved an 11-referee list to work the Final Four and National Championship game, and the game's referees will be selected from that pre-approved list and announced one hour before tip-off.

Vegas set the opening line in favor of Gonzaga as 5-point favorites. The total is set at 160. Money line bettors can lay some juice to pick Gonzaga (-245) or grab Baylor at plus-money (+188). The game will be both teams' second all-time NCAA Championship appearance - Gonzaga in 2017 and Baylor in 1948 - and both are seeking their first title.

 

How They Got Here

The top-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs have a spotless 31-0 record that includes just two games that were decided by less than 10 points - a December 2 win over West Virginia, and Saturday's 3-point overtime win over UCLA in the Final Four. In non-conference play, the Zags challenged themselves with contests against Iowa, Kansas, West Virginia, and Virginia, all of whom were awarded top-4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. After breezing through West Coast Conference play, and a conference tournament championship over BYU, the Bulldogs took down #16 Norfolk State, #8 Oklahoma, #5 Creighton, #6 Southern California, and #11 UCLA to earn their place in the National Championship game. Gonzaga is 4-1 against-the-spread in this tournament.

The Baylor Bears sport a strong 27-2 record, with their only regular season loss coming at the hands of Kansas in February, as well as a Big 12 Conference Tournament loss to Oklahoma State. During non-conference play, Baylor opted to play fellow NCAA Tournament #1 seed Illinois (and won), and a relatively easy remainder of the non-conference schedule. In the Big 12, the Bears had to maneuver around a minefield of quality teams, with six other NCAA Tournament teams in the league. In the NCAA Tournament, the Bears have taken down #16 Hartford, #8 Wisconsin, #5 Villanova, #3 Arkansas, and #2 Houston to get to this point. Baylor is 4-1 against-the-spread in this tournament.

 

The Coaches

Gonzaga is coached by long-time program leader Mark Few. The 58-year old Coach Few was born and raised in the Pacific Northwest, and has led the Bulldogs for 22 seasons. Few played basketball and baseball at Division III Linfield College before transferring to the University of Oregon to pursue academics. Few has two Final Four appearances, two NABC Coach of the Year awards, and twenty West Coast Conference regular season titles (every season since 2001, aside from the 2011-2012 season).

Coach Scott Drew is the understudy of this game at 50 years of age. As the son of former Valparaiso Coach Homer Drew, and the brother of former Valparaiso and NBA guard Bryce Drew, basketball bloodlines run deep in the Drew family. Drew is in the midst of his 18th year in Waco, Texas, and has brought the program well out of the depths of recruiting violations and misappropriated funds that Drew inherited from his predecessor at Baylor. This year is Coach Drew's first Final Four appearance, and he has two Big 12 Coach of the Year awards, and one Big 12 regular season title on his resume.

 

On The Court

Projected Starting Fives
Gonzaga Baylor
PG Andrew Nembhard Jared Butler
SG Jalen Suggs Davion Mitchell
SF Joel Ayayi MaCio Teague
PF Corey Kispert Mark Vital
C Drew Timme Flo Thamba
Key Reserve F Anton Watson G Adam Flagler

Entering the tournament, the consensus thought was that a team with superior size would have the best chance of taking down Gonzaga. The Bulldogs quickly dispelled that theory in their beatdown of USC, but did show some holes in their narrow Final Four win over UCLA. As we wrote in our Final Four betting expert picks, UCLA was the second-hottest team in the tournament behind Gonzaga, the starting five played a team-oriented style of basketball, and their center, Cody Riley, was able to stay largely out of foul trouble. Even though UCLA didn't feature superior size or rebounding to the Zags, they gave them their biggest scare of the season in an overtime loss.

If Gonzaga hopes to bring the NCAA Championship back to Spokane, Washington, for the first time ever, they'd better start by cleaning up the defensive side of the game. Despite knowing that UCLA wanted to play ISO-ball with Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez, Gonzaga did little to stop those two from getting the ball in isolation situations, and they paid the price dearly, almost to the tune of an upset. Center Drew Timme was fantastic, as he has been all tournament, with 25 points, and he'll be critical against a Baylor frontline that packs very little offensive punch but does feature some better rim protection than Timme's faced thus far. Future NBA top-5 draft pick Jalen Suggs and fellow guard Joel Ayayi have both been dynamic in this tournament but will have their hands full with the Bears' effective triumvirate of guards Teague, Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga has never lost to Baylor, and will hope to improve on their current 5-0 all-time head-to-head record.

The Bears showed once again why their depth is not only enviable but could become Gonzaga's kryptonite. To date, the Zags have relied on a short bench that's dipped into forward Anton Watson and occasionally former Southern Illinois guard Aaron Cook - that's it. When Coach Drew opens up his bench, he'll trust them just as much as his starters with Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua all receiving 20 minutes or more of playing time regularly. Baylor's starting backcourt trio of Macio Teague, Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell will be the key, as they have been all season. Against an extremely physical Houston team in the national semifinal, Baylor held their own on the boards, with a +3 advantage, while holding the Cougars to a dismal 38% shooting from the field. At the end of the day, basketball fans will get to see the best two teams duke it out in a winner-takes-all setting. Expect barrages of three-pointers, and plenty of excitement in this highly anticipated National Championship contest.

Pick: Gonzaga -4.5 / Over 159.5

 

Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Dalton Rushing

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Max Muncy

With A Pair Of Doubles Back At Triple-A
Michael Lorenzen

Tosses Quality Start
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
A.J. Puk

Likely To Miss Multiple Months
Marquis Grissom Jr.

Notches Fifth Save At Double-A
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Records Third Save
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Shane Smith

Tosses Five Shutout Frames
Roman Anthony

With Home Run No. 5 On Thursday
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Andrés Muñoz

Andres Munoz Secures Ninth Save
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall

Matthew Golden Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
NFL

Texans Trade The 25th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Giants
Jakob Marsee

Up To 18 Steals At Triple-A

Omarion Hampton Taken No. 22 Overall By Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Selects Derrick Harmon At No. 21 Overall
Denver Broncos

Broncos Build Secondary By Selecting Jahdae Barron At No. 20

Buccaneers Add Emeka Egbuka At No. 19
Jeff McNeil

Activated From Injured List
Brett Baty

Optioned To Minors
Zack Gelof

To Begin Rehab Assignment Next Week
Ryan Walker

Remains Giants Closer
Kumar Rocker

Heads To Injured List
Brent Rooker

Resting For First Time This Season
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Bryan Woo

Picks Up Third Win, Strikes Out Eight On Thursday
Cade Cavalli

Moving Rehab Assignment To Double-A
Paul DeJong

Having Surgery On His Nose
Royce Lewis

Starting His Rehab Assignment On Friday
Tyler O'Neill

Out On Thursday With Sore Neck
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Gabriel Landeskog

Delivers Six Hits In First Game Since 2022
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF