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Mike Fanelli gives his top seven bets for Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Which of his picks should you bet on?
Super Bowl LVIII is less than a week away. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will fight for the right to be Super Bowl champions.
Last year, the Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in a classic Super Bowl, winning 38-35. Kansas City has made the Super Bowl in four of the past five years, missing it only twice since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback.
This year’s Super Bowl is a rematch from four years ago when the Chiefs got a 31-20 victory over the 49ers. However, all that is in the past. Let’s look at my top seven bets for Super Bowl LVIII. Odds via DraftKings.
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Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)
Mahomes had a disappointing 2023 regular season by his own standards. Yet, he finished eighth in the NFL in passing touchdowns, averaging 1.7 per game. The former Texas Tech star had two or more passing scores in over half of the regular season contests. Unfortunately, the superstar hasn’t had much luck during the playoffs, totaling four passing touchdowns in three games.
However, Mahomes has played in the freezing cold and against the top defense in the NFL this postseason. He won’t have to worry about either in the Super Bowl. More importantly, the veteran has averaged 2.3 passing touchdowns per game in his playoff career. He has had at least two passing touchdowns in two of his three Super Bowl appearances, including the one against San Francisco.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2+ touchdowns in 2 of his 3 Super Bowl appearances 👀 pic.twitter.com/R8dFhH1Rub
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) February 5, 2024
Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The superstar was the unquestioned top running back during the regular season. McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards, averaging a career-high 91.2 yards per game. While he had some down weeks, the veteran running back had at least 93 rushing yards in 60% of the regular season games that he finished. More importantly, McCaffrey had 100 or more rushing yards in nearly half of his healthy regular-season contests.
While the superstar running back ended the regular season on the injury report with a calf injury, it hasn’t impacted him during the postseason. McCaffrey has had at least 90 rushing yards in both playoff contests, including against an elite Detroit Lions run defense in the NFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, Kansas City gave up 86.9 rushing yards per game to running backs during the regular season, surrendering 104 or more in over a third of their matchups.
Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Sometimes, there are player prop bets that bettors look at and want to bet the mortgage on it. That’s how I feel about Pacheco’s rushing total prop bet. The former Rutgers star averaged 66.8 rushing yards per game during the regular season, totaling 110 or more in nearly a quarter of the matchups. Furthermore, Pacheco has picked up his play in the postseason, averaging 84.7 yards per game, totaling at least 68 every week.
San Francisco had one of the top run defenses in the NFL this year. The 49ers held running backs to only 1,097 rushing yards during the regular season, the second-fewest in the league behind the Lions. Yet, they have severely struggled during the playoffs. Aaron Jones had 108 rushing yards against the 49ers, while David Montgomery totaled 93 yards in the NFC Championship Game. Pacheco could easily have 100 rushing yards on Sunday.
Deebo Samuel Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Samuel was outstanding during the NFC Championship Game despite suffering a shoulder injury the week before against the Green Bay Packers. The star wide receiver was outstanding, forcing eight missed tackles on his 11 touches, totaling 89 receiving yards. However, he faced an awful Detroit secondary. Unfortunately, that week's performance was a fluke for the wide receiver.
#49ers WR Deebo Samuel forced EIGHT missed tackles on 11 touches against the #Lions in the NFC Championship game 🤯
(h/t @Ihartitz) pic.twitter.com/d3fzR1aHCw
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) February 1, 2024
The former South Carolina star averaged 59.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season, totaling 55 or less in 60% of the matchups. He had averaged only 35.4 receiving yards per game over the previous five contests before the matchup against the Lions, totaling 48 or fewer in every game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have shut down No. 1 wide receivers this year, including holding Stefon Diggs to only 21 receiving yards during their playoff matchup a few weeks ago.
Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
While I don’t think Kelce can be the first-ever tight end to win Super Bowl MVP, the superstar should have a massive performance. He struggled during the regular season, averaging 65.6 receiving yards per game, his lowest average since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback. However, the future Hall of Famer has been on fire during the playoffs.
Despite facing an elite Baltimore Ravens defense in the AFC Championship Game, Kelce had 116 receiving yards. He has averaged 87.3 receiving yards per game during the postseason, totaling 71 or more in every contest. Furthermore, the superstar has averaged 89.2 receiving yards per game in 17 career playoff games with Mahomes, recording at least 71 yards in 12 consecutive matchups. The 49ers gave up 97 receiving yards to Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship Game, so don’t be surprised if Kelce hits the century mark.
Nick Bosa Over 0.25 Sacks (-115)
The 49ers have one of the top pass rush units in the NFL. Bosa is the leader of the group, posting double-digit sacks in three consecutive years. More importantly, his 10.5 sacks led the team and ranked 17th in the NFL during the regular season. The superstar pass rusher had at least half a sack in 52.9% of regular-season contests. Furthermore, he had two sacks against a talented Lions offensive line during the NFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offensive line is in rough shape.
Their best offensive lineman, Joe Thuney, likely won’t play because of a pectoral injury. More importantly, Patrick Mahomes was sacked 27 times during the regular season, with Jawaan Taylor being responsible for five (per PFF). He also led the team in quarterback hits allowed (12) and hurries allowed (37) during the regular season. Bosa will have an easy time when matched up against Taylor.
Christian McCaffrey to Win Super Bowl MVP (+475)
There have been 57 Super Bowl MVP award winners in NFL history so far. A running back has won the award only seven times (12.1%). Yet, McCaffrey is an appealing option. The last running back to win the award was Terrell Davis in 1998, coached by Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan’s father. While quarterbacks typically win the MVP award, the superstar running back is the heart and soul of San Francisco’s offense.
McCaffrey had a touchdown in 88.2% of the games he finished this year, including in the postseason. Furthermore, he has accounted for over half of the 49ers’ offensive touchdowns during the playoffs, scoring twice in both games. The superstar is only the fifth player since 2000 to have 25 or more touchdowns in a year, including the playoffs. If San Francisco is going to win this game, they will need a massive performance from McCaffrey.
Christian McCaffrey is the 5th player since 2000 to have at least 25 touchdowns in season (regular season + playoffs).#NFL | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/8lztRnb1UM
— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) January 31, 2024
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