Ellis Johnson's Top 10 Running Backs: Half-PPR Fantasy Football Rankings

You've seen my receiver rankings, now it's time for the running backs! Last season my draft rankings finished 61st overall in the FantasyPros accuracy competition. I hope to have another successful year in 2022.

Running backs truly make or break your fantasy season, and unfortunately, there aren't many fantasy stars in the position. The landscape didn't really change during the NFL draft (outside of three teams). However, with all the quarterback and receiver movement, we have backs who are wearing the same jerseys but on completely different offenses. We also have RBs like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, and Travis Etienne coming off of major injuries. So no pressure releasing my rankings and statistical projections, right?

In this article, I break down my thoughts on the elite backs and provide my projected statistic for each player. You can find the rest of my projections here. From love stories to fashion advice, it's a loaded rankings article. My name is Ellis, and I want to thank you all for checking out my work. Find me on Twitter @YoitsEllis_FF and let me know what you think!

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Top 10 - Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings (Half-PPR)

August 2022 Update

1. Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR):

I've tried to keep a brave face every time I've talked about McCaffery this offseason. In fact, I've done it so much that I started questioning if I was just saying things or if I truly believed what I was saying. Well, once I did my projections, all doubt left me. CMC is THE best player in fantasy. I mean it, I’m going down with this ship even if we get a repeat of the last two seasons.

Over the last two seasons, he has played 50% or more snaps in seven games; in these games, he averaged 27.7 fantasy points. Last season, that would have led all players across positions (Cooper Kupp led the league with 25.9 fpts/game in 2021). CMC is the most valuable player in fantasy when he plays regardless of quarterback or team, and that’s an advantage I don’t want anyone else in my league having.

2. Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND):

He’s unstoppable. If you aren’t willing to take the risk with CMC, there is no reason Taylor wouldn’t be atop the list. Last season, he topped 1800 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. The icing on the cake was his 40 receptions, two receiving touchdowns, and 360 receiving yards.

This team literally ran through Taylor, and with an upgrade at QB, he could be even better. The Colts have everything you want your fantasy RB to be associated with; a great offensive line, an immobile QB, and the willingness to run the ball 20+ times a game. He’s as safe as it gets when it comes to fantasy picks.

3. Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC):

Finally, Ekeler started to gain the fantasy respect he deserves. Much like Taylor above, there is nothing not to like about Ekeler’s situation (but for different reasons). He has a young QB, star-powered offense, good offensive line, a team that wants to go for it on fourth down, and we learned he can be the goal-line back. Matching Taylor’s 20 total touchdowns, Ekeler managed to be the RB2 despite failing to crack 1,000 rushing yards.

His 70 receptions and nearly 650 receiving yards easily made up for that. Despite the brief uncertainty of drafting many people's favorite prospect, Isiah Spiller. Joshua Kelly has retained the second role, meaning for the second consecutive year, Ekeler is by far and away the best back on this team. As a result, he is a bonafide full PPR RB1, and for me, and should be considered in the top tier for runningbacks.

4. Alvin Kamara (RB, NOS):

It is important not to look over Kamara's legal issues, even if he is not going to be suspended this season. His altercation at the Pro Bowl last season supposedly has brutal video evidence of Kamara and others beating a man unconscious and continuing to beat him while unconscious.

Some have discussed that it is surprising that this video has not been leaked to the public, and if it is leaked during the season, we could see the league take action during the season. With this in mind, if you are still drafting him in 2022, I expect him to play the full season and have made his projections for 17 games.

With all the change around the Saints organization, 2020’s RB1 (Kamara) has changed fantasy players' tunes over the last season. It all started with the departure of the notorious check-down king, Drew Brees. That led right into the Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill experiment where despite missing four games, Kamara finished 2021 as the RB8. Kamara was the engine of this team and averaged a combined 24 opportunities per game.

Even without Sean Peyton, the return of Michael Thomas, and the addition of Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, it’s no secret that Kamara is still THE guy. Kamara can still bring elite fantasy production in 2022, and although I have him to start the second tier, he is a top-end RB1 for fantasy.

5. D'Andre Swift (RB, DET):

I think people forget that going into the 2020 NFL draft, Swift was scouted to be a better all-around back than Jonathan Taylor. As a result of NFL statistics and landing spot, Taylor has clearly made the most of his talent. Swift on the other hand has only shown glimpses of his potential. Right out the gate, he demonstrated his ability in the receiving game, with only one game having less than three receptions.

Last season, the addition of Head Coach Motor City Dan Campbell (HCMCDC) made it clear that Swift is the workhorse of this team, averaging 12 rushing attempts and six targets per game. In full PPR, Swift is the classic case of workload and talent supplanting situation. I also could see a world where he scores the bulk of the Lions' total touchdowns, and have an early career Saquon Barkley/CMC esc. type of season.

6. Aaron Jones (RB, GB):

I feel like this may be a “hot take," but I think the path is clear for Jones to return to fantasy glory. In my Ellis' Essential Players article, I discuss the Green Bay backfield as a whole in more detail. Anyways, over the last three years, Jones has been an RB1, with his highest being the RB2 in 2019 and his lowest being last season as RB11.

For a player that is often assumed to be inconsistent, that’s three straight years of great production. Plus, last season, he missed three games. This opportunity led to the emergence of A.J. Dillon, who was very impressive as the starter and a complement to Jones. Dillon should see more work, but this is a perfect Thunder-Lightning backfield combination.

The second key is Davante Adams leaving town. In the one game last year without Adams, Jones was targeted 11 times. There are two well-known's that increase Jones' appeal. The first is that when a star receiver leaves a team, there is typically an increase of targets to the running back position the following year.

The second is that Aaron Rodgers throws to people he trusts (just look at last year’s playoff game against the 49ers where Jones and Adams combined for 18 of Rodgers' 20 completions), and currently, the people he trusts on the depth chart are not even close to as talented as Jones (and Dillon).

Even with Adams, Jones had the sixth-most receptions and second-most receiving touchdowns at the position. These numbers can go up, making him a locked-in RB1 in PPR formats, with the upside of having an elite nose for the endzone.

7. Derrick Henry (RB, TEN):

Henry was on an absolute tear last season, then he injured his foot. What’s wild is that he managed to finish as the RB22 despite missing nine games. Oh, and he did that in full PPR with 18 receptions. To be able to do that off of pure rushing is absurd. Henry averaged over a touchdown per game and over 100 yards rushing.

Now, with star-wide-out A.J. Brown gone, somehow those stats could go up. Unfortunately, there is a possibility with age and workload that this injury was the first of many to come, but that’s the risk that lowers him to number seven on this list.

8. Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN):

Why does 2021 seem like a lost season for Dalvin Cook? The former superstar has run into some fantasy fatigue in leagues. Cook has always had elevated injury risk, and last season he missed four games. To make matters worse, touchdown regression hit him at the same time. Cook went from 16 rushing touchdowns (17 total) in 2020 to a mere six rushing touchdowns (eight total) in 2021.

This was the perfect storm for Cook to have a down year and be under-drafted in 2022. The only negative with the new offense is that they will run a lot more 11 personnel plays.

Historically, Cook has not had his greatest success in this formation, however, has still managed to be good for fantasy. At the end of the day, if you are to play the odds he should have positive touchdown regression and avoid injury, making him once again a top RB in 2022.

9. Joe Mixon (RB, CIN):

Do you remember when we were all waiting for Mixon to join the fantasy party? From the moment the controversial draft pick was made, it was frustrating to see his obvious talent sit on a below-average offense. Enter Joe Burrow. This team has completely flipped and now has one of the best offenses in the league.

Mixon is the clear lead back on this team, with his only competition being a dynamic pass catcher and part-time Captain America, Chris Evans, and journeyman Samaje Perine.

This proved not to be a worry as last season he had the third-most rushing attempts in the league. The Bengals have also done an excellent job restructuring their offensive line to protect Burrow under center and consequently help the run game.

I think Mixon is one of the safest picks in the draft and has the upside on this team to lead the league in rushing touchdowns. I have him down at nine, however, because I fear that he will concede a lot of his passing work to Evans and Perine. Either way, draft him as your RB1 with confidence in 2022.

10. Najee Harris (RB, PIT):

When I was first ranking Harris, I was content being lower than his consensus ranking. However, once I projected his production, I was surprised at how high he was in my rankings. Despite this, my concerns for him still remain.

I love Najee Harris both as a person and a player, and I hope he has an excellent season. But I don’t think this year will be pretty. In 2021, the rookie broke out purely off of talent and workload. He finished tied for the most targets at the position and had the second-most rushing attempts, totaling a ridiculous 501 opportunities. His workload should still be atop the league, but I would be surprised if it remains anywhere near the 500 mark.

Whether you want to say that is because they will have a QB that can throw farther than 10 yards, or because the team wants to protect their young star, regression should come. If that is the case, the Steelers still have one of the worst lines in the league, which led Harris to be near the bottom in every efficiency metric.

If the work decreases, he’ll need a substantial jump in efficiency to return value. If the workload continues, injury risk is terrifying. That’s not a situation I want to buy into. However, I rarely factor in missed games when doing my projections, and if he is to play all 17, he should have an excellent season.

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