Welcome, RotoBallers. You may have noticed that we're rolling out a ton of rankings content for the 2016 season. Included in this effort is our Top 300 staff rankings, which you can view by clicking that link or scrolling all the way down below.

In addition to yours truly, Brad Johnson and Nick Mariano participated in the initial phase, and we're hoping to add a few more of our experts to the mix in future updates. Yesterday, Nick and I went around the horn and debated one another on our infielder rankings. 

If you missed it, click here, then come back for our thoughts on outfielders and pitchers.

Outfield Rankings Analysis

Nick Mariano (@NMariano53)

Let's get away from these players that I dislike so much and turn our attention to the outfield. I'm standing up for Hunter Pence over both of you, as I think a healthy Pence delivers a 5x5 line of 90/22/80/10/.280 or so. I don't expect him to steal bases like he did in his twenties, but that strange swing of his seems to produce yearly. Why should I take a Yasiel Puig over him? Do you expect that much decline from Pence, that much growth from Puig, or both?

I figured I'd be the low man on Jason Heyward (who I think is the only suspect I'm eyeing as someone I should bump up a bit). I take it you must really enjoy the prospects of him hitting in that Cubbies lineup? I also thought I was bearish on Carlos Gomez at my #57 to Brad's #37, but you take the cake with putting him at #94. He was a first rounder last year (albeit a disappointing one), and now he's almost outside of your top 100. Speaking of top 100, you've got Joc Pederson in yours at #99 while I thought I was giving him his fair due at #144. He's still so young and I know Mattingly is out of his way now, but I just have hard time vaulting him for the raw talent he showed in the first half alone. Another intriguing point of interest is how we fall on the young Cardinals' outfielders. You're on Team Grichuk while I side with Team Piscotty. Both enjoyed very high BABIPs in 2015, while Grichuk hit for more power but struck out 31% of the time compared to Piscotty's better contact rates. I'll let you stump for your boys here.

Kyle Bishop (@amoralpanic)

I hear what you're saying about the value of floor over ceiling. I generally subscribe to that school of thought myself, though you wouldn't know it from the outfield ranks of mine that you've highlighted here. Then again, they're all 25th or lower in ADP at the position right now. When I've already bagged a couple of studs and am drafting my third or fourth outfielder, I'm more willing to roll the dice.

I wrote about both Pence and Puig earlier this offseason, and I like both of their outlooks for 2016. Pence had been remarkably consistent and durable in his career prior to last season, and those traits have obvious value in this game of ours. It is worth noting, however, that he'll be 33 this season. The corollary to being durable is accruing a lot of mileage on your body, and that risk in baked into my ranking. Of course, Puig's had trouble staying on the field himself, and perhaps I haven't factored that in enough in my placement of him on this list. Still, part of the reason that so many owners bet big on the ManBear last year was that many of his underlying metrics had improved in 2014 from his impressive rookie campaign. He was still an above-average hitter despite all the nagging injuries, and given his obvious immense talent and the quality of the Dodgers' lineup, it's not at all hard to envision a dominant performance. Both should come cheaper than usual given their struggles a year ago and return a profit, but in a vacuum I'll take my chances with the higher upside player.

Heyward is a fascinating player in so many ways. He's another player where nobody can argue with the talent on display, but that also leads to anything short of superstardom being viewed as a disappointment. You're absolutely right that I love his team and park context. He's never called a hitters' park home or had this good of a collection of hitters around him. Hitting in front of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, et. al. is almost certainly going to help his counting stats. Look what it did for Dexter Fowler last season.

We all have those players who, for one reason or another, our opinion of them isn't necessarily something we can support with hard data or airtight arguments. Gomez was one of those players for me -  I never really liked him that much, even when he was putting up elite numbers. Now that he's on the wrong side of 30 and coming off a middling season, I definitely want no part of him. This Fangraphs article does a great job of expressing my reservations about Gomez in 2016. I know he was dealing with a bunch of injuries last year, but those trends are troubling, to say the least.

Regarding Pederson, we can't ignore the second half swoon, but that doesn't negate what came before. I think you're selling the kid a bit short. He's never going to hit for a high average unless the whiffs come down, but I think his true talent lies a good deal higher than a .210 mark even if they don't. The power and plate discipline are things of beauty, and there's enough data in his minor league track record to suggest that he can improve his contact rate and baserunning. Plus, as you pointed out, he doesn't have Mattingly to jerk him around when he falls into the inevitable slumps that come with being a young TTO hitter. Will he be the destroyer of worlds we witnessed in the first few months of his rookie year? Maybe not, but he doesn't have to be to justify my ranking.

Like Pederson, Grichuk has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but offers enough power and upside in the stolen base department to forgive that flaw. I'd normally be a lot more cautious about a guy who flashed a high BABIP and middling walk rates, but Grichuk simply crushes the ball when he does make contact. Pick a batted ball metric - Hard %, line drive rate, exit velocity, whatever - and Grichuk grades out as excellent. As with Pederson, I look at the minor league numbers and see reason for optimism regarding the strikeouts.

I do plan to give Piscotty a bump in the next round, based on some analysis I've read since we compiled our rankings. He apparently made some mechanical adjustments to his swing that have led to increased power. It wasn't reflected in his traditional numbers, but his batted ball distance was elite, and that was with him going opposite field on the majority of his fly balls. If he continues that, the homers will come. And like Grichuk, he's displayed the skills necessary to maintain a high BABIP.

Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis

Kyle Bishop (@amoralpanic)

Now that we've covered the position players, let's turn our attention to the mound. Tell me why I shouldn't be concerned about Felix Hernandez. Sell me on Luis Severino and Steven Matz over Lance McCullers. And for the love of all that is holy, please try to justify that Andrew Cashner ranking.

Nick Mariano (@NMariano53)

Turning to upside once you’ve got yourself a foundation in the first several rounds is a line each owner has to draw for themselves, but that sounds like a wise place to mark it. It’s true that durability can be a double edged sword when the odometer starts to make the mechanic’s head spin. I wish you had just said Puig is in the best shape of his life and left it at that, but those are great points too. The Dexter Fowler point is a poignant one, I just don’t know how much profit there is to be had on him.

Felix Hernandez might be another name you’re looking at in a Pence-ian sort of way with the durability starting to catch up to him. 2014 was not going to happen again, his BABIP was .258 and things were just too clean. While he might not be the 200+ K guy anymore, again I have to turn to my floor side. Unfortunately yeah, I don’t see him being a top 5 arm (he’s not in my top 10 either) but I think his established history and aforementioned durability earns him this spot for me.

For instance, I have Stephen Strasburg right behind him, whose ceiling is NL Cy Young winner with absurd stats, but he has some injury history and has shown inconsistency (he’s still young, but I still can’t ignore it). I’m not trying to write off his awful start against Houston because it was brutal and it damn sure happened, but I think it’s worth noting that without it he has a 3.17 ERA last year instead of 3.53. He’s maintaining a strong 56.2% ground ball rate and saw an uptick in generating soft contact last year, but I know y’all want the strikeouts.

As for the trio of young pitchers you mentioned (Luis Severino, Steven Matz, and Lance McCullers), my answer for McCullers being last really boils down to my liking Matz’s spot on the Mets in the NL East and Severino’s stuff passing my own eye test more than McCullers’ did. Bottom line is they can all pitch well and they can strike guys out. I really like F-strike%, and Severino threw his first pitch for a strike 62.8% of the time, Matz checked in at 61.8% (I know, in only 35.2 IP), but McCullers was down at 57.1%.

I recognize that FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all favor McCullers, so you may very well be the educated one here. You can pull the same exercise I did with taking away his own awful blow up start and his ERA drops to 2.80. Honestly, if he brings that fastball command down from a 11.9 BB% to even 10% I think he makes a good jump. As it stands,Severino and Matz showed me command with their first cup of coffee, and I like the springboard that provides for growth.

Alright, let’s chat about Andrew “Straight Cash Homie” Cashner. 2015 was ugly, no bones about it. 2014 was way over his head, still boneless. He upped his K rate, but his walk rate shot up at a higher clip. His HR/9 and HR/FB rates were the highest they’ve been since 2012. Left handed bats smashed him to a .287/.379/.517 triple slash, which speaks to why he walked them just about three times as often.

“Whoa, Nick, aren’t you defending him?” Ah, right. Despite all of this, he was royally screwed by a career worst .330 BABIP, 65.6% strand rate, and those aforementioned home run rates occurred despite lowering his hard hit% and fly ball%. In the end, I know I do need to knock Cashner down a bit, though I think it’s more about him being surrounded by a lousy San Diego squad that also dinged Tyson Ross and James Shields.

Oh, and this is as good a time as any to point out that we both believe in Joe Ross, whereas Brad ranks guys like Wade Miley or Anthony DeSclafani higher. In a brief Twitter exchange he referred to Ross as “the poor man’s Carlos Rodon”. Care to respond?

As for some other pitcher takes I'm curious on: I’m the middle man on Adam Wainwright, but you are 59 spots behind Brad on him. Don't have faith in his body holding up or just not returning to form? I take it health is the culprit for our distance on Jaime Garcia as well.

Kyle Bishop (@amoralpanic)

King Felix's second half struggles certainly weighed on my mind as I considered where to place him, but that seemingly low rank is as much a function of stiffer competition as anything else. His velocity wasn't down, which is the first place you'd look when trying to figure out if a guy is pitching hurt. Injured or not though, Hernandez did alter his approach and pitch usage after the break, and it didn't go terribly well. And again, while he's been remarkably healthy to this point in his career, we have to at least consider the possibility that his routinely heavy workloads might be catching up to him a little. I don't see the wheels coming off or anything - he's still in my top 20 SP, after all - but I'd be less comfortable investing heavily than in years past.

With Wainwright, the injury is only a minor concern to me since it wasn't arm-related. More worrisome is his age (he turns 35 this season) and the fact that his strikeout rate has tumbled over the last couple years. In our pitcher rankings, I actually only have him six spots behind you and Brad. So he'll probably get moved up on the overall list next time, but I do have some reservations. As for his teammate Garcia, he's pitched more than 165 innings exactly once in seven years as a big-leaguer, and his career K/9 is a pedestrian 7.12. Not a guy I'm clamoring to have on my roster.

Severino may have had a higher F-Strike%, but his overall BB% was actually slightly higher than McCullers, who had a better K% than either Severino or Matz. I understand the concern about command as it's something McCullers had his issues with in the minors, but he's made tangible adjustments over the last year and change and I think that was borne out by his performance as a rookie. He does need to pitch deeper into games, but I give a lot of credit to guys who respond as well to be thrown into the fire as he did - remember that his promotion was seen by many as overly aggressive.

It feels like Cashner has been a popular breakout pick since before fantasy baseball was invented. The guy will be 30 this year. Guess how many seasons he has with an ERA under 4.00 and a K/9 north of 7.00 in 180 innings? If you guessed “none,” you are a winner. He finally broke the latter barrier last season and put up a solid 8.04 K/9, but six wins and a 4.34 ERA ain’t gonna cut it. Hard pass.

I don't understand Brad's "poor man's Rodon" comment. Unlike Rodon, Ross actually showed solid command throughout his minor league career and as a rookie. Ross doesn't have Rodon's strikeout upside, either. Obviously I don't need to sell you on the guy, given our similar valuations.

The Surprises

Kyle Bishop (@amoralpanic)

We seem to be on the same page with most of our reliever rankings, so let's wrap things up with a little self-reflection. I was shocked to be the low man on Noah Syndergaard in both our Top 300 and our staffwide positional rankings. I am all-in on Thor for 2016 and beyond, and it wouldn't shock me if he made an Arrieta-like leap this season. On the flip side, I have no great love for Rusney Castillo, or Brandon Phillips, so to have them ranked so much higher than you or Brad was a surprise. Did you find yourself unexpectedly a cheerleader or pessimist on any players?

Nick Mariano (@NMariano53)

There's a ton to glean from these rankings, but here are some unexpected highs and lows. I wouldn't have thought I'd look like the bearish one on J.D. Martinez, as I adore that swing of his and definitely think his numbers are legit. He puts a TNT charge into the ball like it's nothing.

Eugenio Suarez is another guy I like going into 2016. I don't have a tattoo for him or anything, as I'm not sure about that power he flashed, but he has a starting job and could be a nice cheap source of production from SS. To be 90 spots behind Brad and 57 behind you on him is surprising. And after all the commentary about my love for corner infielders, I was pretty shocked to see my Byung-ho Park ranking 45 spots behind yours. I know that coming over to the MLB has me a little wary, but I really didn't see myself being the wet blanket here.

I didn't anticipate being the point man on Kevin Pillar, but I do enjoy him. Lastly, I'm a little taken aback by neither of you having Erasmo Ramirez inside your top 300. I think he's just a step away from serious relevance as he waxed lefties and really showed some control. This has been very insightful. We laughed, we cried, we learned. Cheers.

Top 300 Rankings (January)

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